HOWARD LIPIN / Union-Tribune
Republican Brian Bilbray accepted the concession of Democrat Francine Busby in a phone call yesterday morning. The candidates ran an intense race for the vacant seat in the 50th District.
Posted on 06/08/2006 12:13:00 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
Republican Brian Bilbray believes he rode a wave of anti-illegal-immigration sentiment to defeat Democrat Francine Busby and replace imprisoned former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham in the 50th Congressional District.
“The biggest scandal facing the U.S. isn't Cunningham,” Bilbray said yesterday, “but the 11 to 12 million illegal aliens in our country. That's what people feel impacts their lives.”
Cunningham resigned in November after pleading guilty to tax evasion and conspiracy related to taking $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors.
Bilbray's win Tuesday reverberated in Washington yesterday and spurred political analysts across the nation to consider its implications for November's congressional election.
Busby, bolstered by the national Democratic Party, came close to winning the heavily Republican district by focusing on ethics lapses in the GOP-controlled Congress. Fearful of losing a seat long considered safe, Bilbray and the Republican Party countered with a relentless campaign that depicted the Cardiff school board member as a liberal and soft on immigration.
Bilbray, a lobbyist and former congressman, expects to be sworn in early next week. He will fill out the remainder of Cunningham's term, which runs through the end of the year. He beat 13 other Republicans in an April 11 special election to advance to Tuesday's runoff against Busby.
The two won their respective primaries on Tuesday and will meet again in November to decide who will serve the next full term, which begins in January.
Democrats had hoped a Busby win in 50th District, which encompasses much of the northern San Diego County, would be a bellwether for November. Analysts correctly predicted a close race: Bilbray won 49 percent to 45 percent. By contrast, the district's voter registration is 44 percent Republican and 30 percent Democratic.
Busby's loss likely deflated Democratic hopes for taking control of the House in November, according to analysts.
“The Democrats' enthusiasm was getting a little unrealistic, and nonpartisan analysts were getting carried away, too,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “This has tempered the mood for Democrats, and for nonpartisan analysts, it has tempered our predictions.
“It will be a tougher road to the majority than Democrats had imagined on Monday.” Busby declined to be interviewed yesterday, but her spokesman, Brennan Bilberry, said that they believe the closeness of the race proves “there are no safe seats.”
Democrats need 15 more seats to take control of the House.
“The results last night should be a signal that every member of Congress should expect a hard-fought election in November, and that is how it should be in a democracy,” Bilberry said.
Busby had focused her campaign on restoring ethics in Washington, where financial relationships between members of Congress and lobbyists have come under scrutiny.
“The fact she was so close in the polls was a tribute to how unhappy people are with the national administration and the Republican Party,” said Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California San Diego. “The message of restoring integrity is one of the things that got her as far as it did – but it's not something that the Democrats can ride into power. It's something the public sees both parties susceptible to.”
Busby and the Democrats spent considerable time and money detailing Bilbray's activities as a lobbyist. But before he was a lobbyist, Bilbray built up a high-profile image in the county as a public official. He began his political career at 24 when he ran for City Council in Imperial Beach. He went on to become mayor and a county supervisor before his election to the old South Bay 49th Congressional District in 1994. He lost that seat in 2000 to Democrat Susan Davis and became a lobbyist.
During the campaign, Bilbray touted his endorsements from local and national officials, many of whom he'd worked with over the years. His central theme was his commitment to stopping illegal immigration.
He also benefited from a verbal gaffe by Busby on that issue last week that seemed to jar her campaign's momentum, some analysts said.
She had been speaking to a roomful of Spanish speakers in Escondido when she said: “You don't need papers for voting.” Busby said she simply “flubbed” her words and in no way advocates that illegal immigrants should vote. But recordings of the statement played on conservative radio talks shows and Republican ads. The sound bites were e-mailed across the nation.
“That gaffe hurt her,” Sabato said. “One of the fundamental issues was immigration and she said exactly the wrong thing. I have no doubt she didn't mean it the way it came out, but tell that to President Bush – he has trouble with his words, too.”
Busby called Bilbray shortly before 10 a.m. yesterday to concede the race. The call seemed extremely cordial, a stark contrast from the blistering ads that characterized the campaign. Busby asked him to carry the ethics message to Washington, and he promised he would.
“There are a lot of people who have been in the system for years who never would have done as well as you did,” Bilbray told her. “I hope you will feel comfortable with my representation.”
He then wished her a nice summer. Perhaps that was a backhanded way of saying he doesn't expect their rematch in November to be another nail-biter. Analysts say the stars had been aligned for Busby for Tuesday's contest: she already had been running against Cunningham when his bribery was revealed, the president's low popularity was hurting Republicans, her grass-roots campaign was gaining momentum and she had strong national support.
In November, there's likely to be a larger Republican turnout and the national support and attention is expected to wane.
“She had every advantage that circumstance and her party could provide and she really didn't come that close to winning,” Sabato said. “That's it. Game over for that district.”
North County political consultant Jack Orr said: “That giant sucking sound you hear is the national Democratic Party leaving town.”
Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the committee would continue to support Busby.
“Of course we're going to continue to help Francine Busby,” he said. “Brian Bilbray's lobbying career hardly makes it seem like he'll do a great job when he goes back to Congress.”
As Bilbray made his way through a gauntlet of radio, television and newspaper interviews yesterday, he pledged that he would use his new post to affect local and national issues. On the local side, he said he would try to “save” the Mount Soledad cross. A federal judge has ruled the cross unconstitutional and said it must be moved.
“I will try to get the president to step in,” Bilbray said, “and do everything constitutionally possible to keep the cross there.”
Bilbray also said his election sends a message that the 50th District, and the nation, will not accept a Senate plan to put illegal immigrants on a path to citizenship. Bilbray did not hide his disagreement with the president's support of that plan when Vice President Dick Cheney appeared at one of his fundraisers. Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who was an architect of the Senate immigration bill, canceled his appearance at another Bilbray fundraiser last month to avoid a public argument.
“The message of this election was that immigration is the issue,” Bilbray said yesterday. “Amnesty won't be accepted in the House.
“If I had not made it very clear I disagree with Senator McCain and the president on amnesty, I never would have won this election.”
Republican Brian Bilbray accepted the concession of Democrat Francine Busby in a phone call yesterday morning. The candidates ran an intense race for the vacant seat in the 50th District.
Busby may have opened her mouth and shot herself in the foot at the end, but telling McCain to "pack sand" sure didn't hurt either. ;-)
It is laughable that Pelosi would harp on a "Culture of Corruption" when there is so much corruption by the Dems on a local level.
When are the politicians gonna realize illegal's are on the front burner?
Over and over the Dems simply don't grasp facts, regardless of the subject matter, abortion, global warming, gun control, Iraq, taxes, this District's election. The list goes on and on.
Maybe some of you FReepers can refresh my recollection of the Reagan quote about how it's not so much about what liberals know but what think they know that's simply not true.
Busby couldn't even win by stuffing ballots.
I suspect that most voters consider corruption to be present in both parties. And, quite frankly, people may rant about "those crooks in Congress" and the need to clean out the rats' nest, but they'll then vote for their own incumbent over 90% of the time. Plus, all politics are local. Local issues will determine the outcome of individual house races. Newt was able to nationalize the mid-term elections in '94, but that was an extremely unique situation and accomplishment. The Democrats don't have a program or an agenda which can effectively nationalize local races.
It would seem only fair to have an accused stand alone and weigh his or her cases' merits accordingly and not just use the broad brush approach to plaster the whole party for the actions of a few.
Politics like this is just more of the politics of personal destruction mentality.
Cunningham is paying his price and William 'chill'd bill' Jefferson must and will eventually spend a little time if the Feds don't wilt in prosecuting him, I suspect. The evidence is overwhelming. To not act to expel him bare minimum is 'criminal', imo. To re-elect him is madness.
Need a few hundred more of these to clear out the Open Borders Shamnesty crowd in Washington.
Meanwhile, McCain was one of 7 Republican senators who voted with the Democrats on the gay-marriage issue. The others were Specter and five from New England (Chafee, Collins, Gregg, Snowe, and Sununu). Hagel didn't vote. One Democrat, Nelson of Nebraska, voted with the Republicans.
I disagree.
I think the problem is that no one believes that voting for a D is a vote to restore integrity to Washington. Billy Clinton made that clear.
Both parties are completely corrupt, thru and thru.
They grasp it, all right. They hope to stall, and throw the base a bone or two, until the storm has passed over, and the dogs stop howling. then it's wide open borders, again.
We must prevent this from happening.
The old broad is sulking and eating her bon bons somewhere. She doesn't want to be interviewed. What a loser. If she had won, she'd be on every television broadcast from the news to Comedy Central.
I haven't seen the press so angry at a single race since Jesse Helms beat Harvey Gantt in 1990. Bilbray is going to end up being a hero to conservatives because of his use of hot button issues head on.
Even voters who don't really pay that much attention to the political process know that most politicians are slimeballs anyway. They're going to listen to the Dems harp about corruption and realize how hypocritical they sound, and will just vote for the individual whom they respect and like.
The Dims truly do not get it and I just wish the Republicans will campaign more aggressively and go for the jugular.
"Republican Brian Bilbray believes he rode a wave of anti-illegal-immigration sentiment to defeat Democrat Francine Busby..."
Up for election this year? Take note of the above.
Thanks for that info..
After Casino Harry Reid, Cold-Cash Jefferson, I'll Drive Kennedy, Bust Your Chops McKinney, Personal Business Conyers and the Six Million Dollar Mollohy, Pelosi has some image problems to overcome.
Hmm.
This is why I reject the Beltway.
They can go back and read my posts, but I'll sum up what I've said for the last few years. Win or lose, that will be determined by the actions of Republicans. Democrats have NO say because they've marginalized themselves with their far left alligiance to Kos.
These results validated that opinion, as the Democrat didn't even have a pickup of 1%. Meanwhile Bilbray's polls ONLY rose when he took on the issue of illegal immigration, and even then, he had to combat the amnesty plank of the RNC to separate his image from theirs. Result of amnesty support by the RNC? 3-4 that went Republican last time shifted to the Minutemen, and they had a 2% dropoff which I can only assume didn't show up to vote.
Exactly what I've been warning the GOP. They are in danger of people voting third party or staying home, and THAT is what would make their re-elections in doubt. Nothing the Democrats have done makes any significant difference.
Bilbray overcame it with the right sole message on immigration.
Also, my prediction for the fall has always been the following. Status quo, unless the base stays home (or third party). The decision of which will NOT be made till Nov. I've always stated they can pick up seats, if they get their act in gear. I.E. Confirm judges, strong on border, etc...
Frankly, this just justifies my determination NOT to let the beltway affect my thinking. I've been better at this predictive business then they have.
Bilbray also said his election sends a message that the 50th District, and the nation, will not accept a Senate plan to put illegal immigrants on a path to citizenship. Bilbray did not hide his disagreement with the president's support of that plan when Vice President Dick Cheney appeared at one of his fundraisers. Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who was an architect of the Senate immigration bill, canceled his appearance at another Bilbray fundraiser last month to avoid a public argument. “The message of this election was that immigration is the issue,” Bilbray said yesterday. “Amnesty won't be accepted in the House. “If I had not made it very clear I disagree with Senator McCain and the president on amnesty, I never would have won this election.”
Copy and send to Mehlman, Dowd, Admistration, Senate and House. Hopefully Bilbray makes certain any weak Republicans open to arm twisting stand firm.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.