Posted on 05/31/2006 6:00:16 AM PDT by rhombus
Conventional wisdom in political circles is that President Bush has lost the support of the “Republican base” because of his handling of several key issues, especially immigration and government spending. Many political pundits are calling on him to court the base or risk losing control of Congress.
I won’t deny the polling evidence, yet my own reading of the numbers is not as pessimistic as that of many GOP insiders. And I have a wholly different perspective on what Bush should do to improve the party’s electoral outlook. While some Republicans are recommending that the president do everything possible to woo the so-called base, I think that strategy would result in more lost seats than a strategy focused on building a winning coalition of Republicans and ticket-splitters.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
I'm not a professional politician, but it seems to me, pissing off your base is not a real smart move.
In mid term electins it is absolutely necessary to get out the base. Get them fired up. Alot of independents do not bother. But this year may be different. With immirgration on the table. It is driving many in hte base away and will turn the majority of the independents against whoever supports it.
Sometimes it seems taht way, doesn't it?
Courting the middle won't help if he loses the base.
Allowing millions of new illegals to cross the border so they can vote democrat isn't exactly a winning strategy either.
This guy's whole thesis rests on the assumption that Dole failed in his presidential bid because of his tax cut proposal. I mean, COME ON. Does this kind of idiocy even need to be addressed?
Insightful.
While I agree with a lot of what is printed here (not ideoligcally but cerebrally) I don't believe that Bush is doing these things as "strategery". Karl Rove may understand and push this, but I still think that the President operates more from personal belief than from the political equation.
Many of us do not always agree with his politics, but at least he is not operating from a poll driven agenda. If anyone listened to Hugh Hewitt last nite, he had on a retired general who met with the President in the Oval Office yesterday, and even in the face of his poll #'s and the apparent loss of support for the war, he continues to stand his ground and search for ways to bring liberty to a part of the world that has known little.
Thank God that we elected this man. He may not be everything that we could wish for all the time, but who is?
This thinking is just dopey. The base is much larger than the pool of moderates. And in a midterm, the chances of exciting the moderates is slim to none...
You are ignoring a very important fact - the middle is much bigger than the base. You can't win without the middle.
The Republicans are trotting out the "Fair Tax" before the 2006 elections. That will not be nearly enough to calm the base from their illegal invader objections.
More advice from a liberal Democrat journalist, a safe bet, to Republicans. It's always the same: Move Left. And it's always WRONG, of course.
In a presidential election, yes.
In Congressional elections, no.
The sad thing is the fact that it's no longer about doing the right thing. It's about getting elected at any cost and the nation be damned.
Just what are these guys smoking, anyway?
The GOPers need both the Conservative Base and the Moderate Middle to win. The author's 3-4 IQ points away from an ear of corn.
Nonsense. The "moderate middle" is a creation of the inside-the-beltway punditry aided and abetted by the dinosaur media. The voting public is near evenly split left and right. What wins elections is turnout, i.e. motivating the base.
Tradesports.com has the GOP losing control of the House in the 2006 elections. That number is the lowest I've seen all year.
I still think the GOP will retain control, but by the hair of its chinny-chin-chin, if you know what I mean.
Viva the House Republicans!
"My belief is that Dole’s plan marginalized him in the minds of many voters. Critics in the mainstream press characterized it as irresponsible and likely to increase the deficit."
If this guy thinks that Dole was not elected because he rolled out some tax plan then he his analisys isn't worth crap. Dole was old and unexciting to the base. A throw away candidate that was put up for election as a duty to loyalty rather than someone who had ideas to lead.
These guys that think you can piss off your base and not get it from your constituants he is a fool.
The FairTax is a stupid idea, and anyone who has looked at it closely realizes that it is not what they promise. It is certainly not going to win any elections for them...
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