I'd agree with 40%.
"Nationalism" comes to power "reactively" -- when the country is weak, not strong. Nationalism is usually fueled by fighting "against" something, rather than "for" something. Even here in the US, we have seen the country go much further "right" in the wake of 9/11. The kind of virulent nationalism you are talking about requires an adversary -- or adversaries, and we have supplied them in abundance.
For the last 15 years, Serbs have been punished with sanctions, bombs, humiliation, the ICTY and the loss of Kosovo. Serbs have been punished longer and harder than Germany was post-WWII -- and it isn't bringing out the best in them. That is why Draskovic is right -- the loss of Kosovo could bring down the Kostunica government and put Serbia's worst right-wing nutsos in power. You think that Milosevic was bad? Seselje makes Milosevic look like a pansy-ass bureaucrat! And who would be to blame? The Serbs? Ultimately, yes -- but also the International community and the US who ought to know better than to keep "kicking a wounded dog and not expecting him not to turn around and bite"!
The CPC is a counter-balance to the OTPOR sellouts.
Yes, I agree Kostunica will have lost control of his power and will be forced out with a no-confidence vote.
Things will become more turbelent in Central Serbia with the Sandjak Muslims demanding more autonomy, wait and see. That is the final link in the "Follow the (yellow) Green Brick Road Theory" of mine (circa 1993 thesis).
Bookmark www.SerbianCycling.org for future referance. You can pass this along to your Serbs and friends in the Sac area. I have cousins in that area that originated from Youngstown, OH area...:) I nearly moved out there to Sac, CA. I'd have been closer to my buddy ole pal, hoppie...:)