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China Building Military at Pace Last Seen in 1930s Germany
HUMAN EVENTS ^ | May 24, 2006 | Jed Babbin

Posted on 05/24/2006 12:01:02 AM PDT by neverdem

From ancient Rome's destruction of Carthage to the Soviet Union of the late 1940s, nations' rise to great power status has almost always been on a tide of war. China -- both economically and militarily -- is on the verge of regional superpower status and aiming at the global equivalent.

Despite President Hu Jintao's "peaceful rise" sloganeering, China is building its military at a pace last seen in 1930s Germany, arming itself with things such as anti-satellite weapons that have no defensive purpose. America faces two great challenges in this decade: to defeat the terrorists and to help shape China's rise. No nation has managed the great power emergence of another. But we must. If we fail, we will be at war with China within the next decade.

America expects more of its military than does any other nation. We expect it to be able to fight and win. That it does, with incredible skill and courage. But we call on our troops to build schools in Iraq, to drill oil wells in Djibouti and do hundreds of other jobs that they don't learn in basic training or in college. Whether or not they think it's their job or smart for them to be doing it, they always answer, "can do."

But just as the military isn't comfortable in some civilian roles -- nation-building is one -- civilians often don’t trust the military to do some of the things it does best. One issue in the fight over Gen. Michael Hayden's nomination to head the CIA is whether the Pentagon should dominate the intelligence arena. (That issue is important only to those who are more concerned with bureaucratic turf wars than whether the best result obtains). That discomfort with the military has concealed, for hundreds of years, one of the military’s most important and least-used talents: diplomacy.

Military diplomacy is not an oxymoron. NATO didn't become the most effective peacetime alliance in American history because the Foggy Bottom striped-pants crowd made it so. It was the result of decades of shared training and teamwork among the militaries that grew to know each other personally. Military diplomacy works just as well among adversaries as among friends. One reason the Cold War stayed cold is that the Soviets saw, first-hand, who comprised our military and much of what they were capable of. If we are diligent about employing this military talent, the emergence of China as a superpower can be a peaceful one.

We have to employ our military diplomats to accomplish gains with China's neighbors as well as with China itself. With China, we already have two good examples to follow.

First was last year's trip to China by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. There is a message we send when we announce that the Secretary of State is going to a nation, and an entirely different one when the Secretary of Defense is the chosen emissary. In an interview last November, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Affairs Peter Rodman said that Rumsfeld spoke quite openly with the Chinese on a host of issues. Rodman said the lesson is that you can be firm with the Chinese and frank with the Chinese and yet have a very constructive relation with them. Adm. William Fallon's visit to Beijing this week -- his second since taking command of U.S. forces in the Pacific -- is the other example.

According to a Washington Post report of the trip, Fallon said his goal was to push China for more contacts, "…to see more things and different things, and to be more open and transparent in military matters." Because China's military buildup is being carried out in such secrecy that even its military budget is hidden whatever threat China may or may not pose is also hidden. This secrecy increases tensions enormously, especially among American allies and within the White House. Fallon, by pushing the Chinese for openness, is helping reduce that tension.

What Fallon is doing is paralleled by military diplomacy with China’s neighbors. These nations -- Malaysia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea to name only a few -- are justly frightened by China’s growing strength and ambitions. The last time China built a "blue-water" navy was about the same time Christopher Columbus was sailing to the Americas. And when that Chinese fleet sailed, it was to demand tribute from nations as far away as Africa. Today's China will demand the modern equivalent, the oil and gas its neighbors possess.

To China, we can show that openness pays and secrecy has a price. Among China's neighbors, our military can gain trust at a personal level civilian diplomats can't. We should send our defense officials, admirals and generals to visit them often to tell these nations that we will help them defend themselves while working with them to remain on peaceful -- if often adversarial -- terms with China.

The White House is overly anxious to avoid calling our policy toward China "containment." The administration fears being accused of reviving Cold War images and rhetoric. We will not be able to contain China as we did with the Soviet Union. But with effective deployment of our military diplomats, we may be able to make Hu Jintao's "peaceful rise" less a slogan and more a fact.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Germany; Government; Japan; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Russia; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: armsbuildup; babbin; china; chinathreat; chinesemilitry; redchina
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To: Mike Darancette
Chinese dollar holdings make what Japanese banks accumulated look anemic. Moreover, the most the Japanese hankered after was to manipulate the two economies for the long term benefit of some large corporations, banks and insurance companies. The Chinese have their eye on first becoming the hegemon of East Asia and in due course being able to end the politeness regime with the US and become the global hegemon. This will feature so unmistakable actions to degrade the US.
21 posted on 05/24/2006 8:50:51 AM PDT by robowombat
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To: jpsb

Take your Wal-Mart bashing elsewhere.


22 posted on 05/24/2006 8:52:03 AM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Conservatism is moderate, it is the center, it is the middle of the road)
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To: neverdem

We are going to have a big problem soon.

I expect after the 2008 Olympics, things will get interesting.


23 posted on 05/24/2006 8:54:48 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: robowombat

Heck, they bought Bill Clinton. Buying a few Congresscritters is probably peanuts.


24 posted on 05/24/2006 9:07:29 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Guns themselves are fairly robust; their chief enemies are rust and politicians) (NRA)
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To: Lurker
"The CCP has convinced itself that without the Party there is no China. That is a very dangerous mindset indeed."

I am reading this, fighting the temptation to note any parallels that could be made wrt to some quarters on FR.

25 posted on 05/24/2006 9:22:23 AM PDT by Tench_Coxe
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist; A. Pole; Jeff Head

LOL, embrassed to be exposed as a Chicom abologist? Helping support the country that is building up it's military machine for the comming war with the USA? Good I am happy I can shame you, you deserve shame.


26 posted on 05/24/2006 10:00:23 AM PDT by jpsb
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To: jpsb; Extremely Extreme Extremist

Didn't we already grant PMFN status to China?     

27 posted on 05/24/2006 10:35:11 AM PDT by melancton
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To: melancton

China was granted Permanent MFN status in 2000. Prior to that a yearly renewal was required.


28 posted on 05/24/2006 10:45:56 AM PDT by jpsb
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To: EQAndyBuzz
What are they going to do with a military that vast? Unless they plan on expansionism like the Soviets did(we saw how that went) there is nothing for them to do.

First they go west into all the little stans to secure a domestic oil supply... then they go North to Siberia.

29 posted on 05/24/2006 10:59:04 AM PDT by Centurion2000 (The social contract is breaking down.)
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To: robowombat
being able to end the politeness regime with the US and become the global hegemon.

Where then will we buy junky stuff? China is a long way from being able to project power globally.

Where would China be without it's trade surplus with the USA? China IMHO walks a fine line and will have to make a decision as to whether they want to foster world wide Socialism or they want to be a modern nation.

30 posted on 05/24/2006 11:16:27 AM PDT by Mike Darancette (Proud soldier in the American Army of Occupation..)
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To: Mike Darancette
You are right that the Chinese walk a fine line. They want all the Outer barbarians to properly respect the innate superiority of the Middle Kingdom and continue to buy Chinese products. At the same time they want to replace the US as the greatest military power on the planet. They are as you say a long way from trying to do that but I suspect they think in decades or longer not today's lamestream evening news or the next poll.

Exporting socialism is not much on the PRC menu. They have basically become in action a true fascist dictatorship complete with hyper-nationalistic appeals to the masses, glorification of the armed forces,chauvinistic historical propaganda, and the myth of the heroic party. On top of which their attitude towards 'the broad masses' is that 'we still have far to many' so they are expendables and spending money on OSHA protections is not only damaging to export supremacy but counterproductive period. The PRC is a true thug state with desires to be super power. Imagine militarist Japan of the 1930's with a billion people.
31 posted on 05/24/2006 11:26:49 AM PDT by robowombat
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To: robowombat
At the same time they want to replace the US as the greatest military power on the planet.

Can't say that I agree with you on this. I believe that they are concerned with being the preeminent power in Asia (much like the pre-WWII Imperial Japanese military), but with the intent of securing their defense perimeter, on the one hand, and preventing the US military from interfering with their "projects" in Asia, such as invading Taiwan and securing as much of the offshore oil in South Asia as possible. To accomplish these objectives, the Chinese don't have to "match up" in every military category versus the US, they simply have to achieve conventional and asymmetrical military parity in Asia.

32 posted on 05/24/2006 12:49:13 PM PDT by pawdoggie
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To: Zhang Fei

china has the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in the world - thanks to investment from the united states. they are also getting some of the most advanced telecommunications capabilities, and the most advanced auto manufacturing plants. these technoligies, along with whatever they can develop with aerospace - are the keys to a modern military.


33 posted on 05/24/2006 12:54:47 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: pawdoggie
Becoming the undisputed overlord of East Asia is certainly the most significant part of what the Chinese long term strategy. Beyond that I do believe they envision controlling the Central Pacific Ocean space and through presence in places such as Papua and New Caledonia in tandem with their economic clout effectively controlling Australia.

Replacing the United States as Number One is part and parcel of this scheme. Partly it is just the way fascists or Marxists think about power relationships. Someone always has to be dominant and domination is what statist power worshippers are most devoted to. It doesn't mean some notion of 'China conquerers the world' like the Martians in 'War of the Worlds' but it does mean the Chinese want a huge de facto empire in the Pacific just as the Japanese militarist dreamed of and want the arrogant long noses appropriately humbled and made receptive to direction from the Middle Kingdom.

They probably also want to be able to export enough of the Han people to Australia and North America to be able to have a large population that can be counted on to work in tandem with their native American or Australian Quislings to see to it that the appropriate rule of heavenly virtue is instituted.

There are several Freepers who display the affinity in debates about immigration for dollar based advantage outcomes typical of Hong Kong Chinese. I note these same individuals always are ready to slip in how mass immigration of Chinese 'who meet legal standards' would be a good thing. The softening up process for covert subversion by the Chinese is already well underway. It is still just well hidden.
34 posted on 05/24/2006 1:10:06 PM PDT by robowombat
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To: Mike Darancette
I find this line of reasoning funny, when it comes from us, America. A nation that has spent at least 10 trillion dollars on defense in the last quarter century. This isn't close to what china has spent in the entire period since the end of World War II.

China currently has a navy that is about 1/6 the size of the US Navy and at least fifty times less capable. They lack any real airlift capability, and their air force is at point we were in the early 80s. I could on, but what point is there, many believe that a war with China is inevitable, and in so thinking might make it happen. This is the question are we making to much of China's Military buildup or are we right to be concerned. This is the black space we find ourselves. In confronting China are we making self-fulling prophecy or are addressing a real possibility. Did the oil embargo against Japan create conditions that brought WWII to the pacific. I don't know, and we can't know.
35 posted on 05/24/2006 1:14:42 PM PDT by Kuehn12 (Kuehn12)
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To: robowombat

While it's possible that the Chinese might "go for the whole enchilada", if they perceived a power vacuum after they became the undisputed masters of Asia, I think your taking things a bit too far. I just don't see the ChiCom leadership worrying about whether to hold the victory ceremony in San Francisco or D.C. I do believe that they have a pathological desire to avenge themselves on the Japanese, and to force all the countries of Asia to acknowledge Chinese military, economic and cultural superiority.


36 posted on 05/24/2006 1:59:02 PM PDT by pawdoggie
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To: neverdem

bttt


37 posted on 05/24/2006 4:08:35 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: pawdoggie
>>> I do believe that they have a pathological desire to avenge themselves on the Japanese, and to force all the countries of Asia to acknowledge Chinese military, economic and cultural superiority.<<<
Having spent time with PRC 'middle management' types, I agree. The Japs were rather nasty during their last visit.
38 posted on 05/24/2006 4:24:46 PM PDT by investigateworld (Abortion stops a beating heart)
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To: Mike Darancette; neverdem

<< At the rate China is arming our biggest problems may be neither Muslims nor [Central and South American Indians]. >>

Close but no Christmas Box.

At the rate China is arming AND is increasing the numbers of its already many scores of thousands of agents in our every at home and abroard industry, production process, school, college, university, computer developer and manufactory, aircraft manufacturer, nuclear and every other kind of laboratory and government agency and is at the same time inciting, aiding, abetting and facilitating our every domestic and international "problem," including those comprising both Muslims and the criminal alien invasion.


39 posted on 05/24/2006 11:04:54 PM PDT by Brian Allen (All that is required to ensure the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke)
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To: neverdem; Mia T

<< China Building Military at Pace Last Seen in 1930s Germany
>>

For which we may all thank eight years of the traitors, Cli'ton.

BUMPping


40 posted on 05/24/2006 11:06:28 PM PDT by Brian Allen (All that is required to ensure the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke)
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