Posted on 05/24/2006 12:01:02 AM PDT by neverdem
From ancient Rome's destruction of Carthage to the Soviet Union of the late 1940s, nations' rise to great power status has almost always been on a tide of war. China -- both economically and militarily -- is on the verge of regional superpower status and aiming at the global equivalent.
Despite President Hu Jintao's "peaceful rise" sloganeering, China is building its military at a pace last seen in 1930s Germany, arming itself with things such as anti-satellite weapons that have no defensive purpose. America faces two great challenges in this decade: to defeat the terrorists and to help shape China's rise. No nation has managed the great power emergence of another. But we must. If we fail, we will be at war with China within the next decade.
America expects more of its military than does any other nation. We expect it to be able to fight and win. That it does, with incredible skill and courage. But we call on our troops to build schools in Iraq, to drill oil wells in Djibouti and do hundreds of other jobs that they don't learn in basic training or in college. Whether or not they think it's their job or smart for them to be doing it, they always answer, "can do."
But just as the military isn't comfortable in some civilian roles -- nation-building is one -- civilians often don’t trust the military to do some of the things it does best. One issue in the fight over Gen. Michael Hayden's nomination to head the CIA is whether the Pentagon should dominate the intelligence arena. (That issue is important only to those who are more concerned with bureaucratic turf wars than whether the best result obtains). That discomfort with the military has concealed, for hundreds of years, one of the military’s most important and least-used talents: diplomacy.
Military diplomacy is not an oxymoron. NATO didn't become the most effective peacetime alliance in American history because the Foggy Bottom striped-pants crowd made it so. It was the result of decades of shared training and teamwork among the militaries that grew to know each other personally. Military diplomacy works just as well among adversaries as among friends. One reason the Cold War stayed cold is that the Soviets saw, first-hand, who comprised our military and much of what they were capable of. If we are diligent about employing this military talent, the emergence of China as a superpower can be a peaceful one.
We have to employ our military diplomats to accomplish gains with China's neighbors as well as with China itself. With China, we already have two good examples to follow.
First was last year's trip to China by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. There is a message we send when we announce that the Secretary of State is going to a nation, and an entirely different one when the Secretary of Defense is the chosen emissary. In an interview last November, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Affairs Peter Rodman said that Rumsfeld spoke quite openly with the Chinese on a host of issues. Rodman said the lesson is that you can be firm with the Chinese and frank with the Chinese and yet have a very constructive relation with them. Adm. William Fallon's visit to Beijing this week -- his second since taking command of U.S. forces in the Pacific -- is the other example.
According to a Washington Post report of the trip, Fallon said his goal was to push China for more contacts, "…to see more things and different things, and to be more open and transparent in military matters." Because China's military buildup is being carried out in such secrecy that even its military budget is hidden whatever threat China may or may not pose is also hidden. This secrecy increases tensions enormously, especially among American allies and within the White House. Fallon, by pushing the Chinese for openness, is helping reduce that tension.
What Fallon is doing is paralleled by military diplomacy with China’s neighbors. These nations -- Malaysia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea to name only a few -- are justly frightened by China’s growing strength and ambitions. The last time China built a "blue-water" navy was about the same time Christopher Columbus was sailing to the Americas. And when that Chinese fleet sailed, it was to demand tribute from nations as far away as Africa. Today's China will demand the modern equivalent, the oil and gas its neighbors possess.
To China, we can show that openness pays and secrecy has a price. Among China's neighbors, our military can gain trust at a personal level civilian diplomats can't. We should send our defense officials, admirals and generals to visit them often to tell these nations that we will help them defend themselves while working with them to remain on peaceful -- if often adversarial -- terms with China.
The White House is overly anxious to avoid calling our policy toward China "containment." The administration fears being accused of reviving Cold War images and rhetoric. We will not be able to contain China as we did with the Soviet Union. But with effective deployment of our military diplomats, we may be able to make Hu Jintao's "peaceful rise" less a slogan and more a fact.
Take your Wal-Mart bashing elsewhere.
We are going to have a big problem soon.
I expect after the 2008 Olympics, things will get interesting.
Heck, they bought Bill Clinton. Buying a few Congresscritters is probably peanuts.
I am reading this, fighting the temptation to note any parallels that could be made wrt to some quarters on FR.
LOL, embrassed to be exposed as a Chicom abologist? Helping support the country that is building up it's military machine for the comming war with the USA? Good I am happy I can shame you, you deserve shame.
Didn't we already grant PMFN status to China? 
China was granted Permanent MFN status in 2000. Prior to that a yearly renewal was required.
First they go west into all the little stans to secure a domestic oil supply... then they go North to Siberia.
Where then will we buy junky stuff? China is a long way from being able to project power globally.
Where would China be without it's trade surplus with the USA? China IMHO walks a fine line and will have to make a decision as to whether they want to foster world wide Socialism or they want to be a modern nation.
Can't say that I agree with you on this. I believe that they are concerned with being the preeminent power in Asia (much like the pre-WWII Imperial Japanese military), but with the intent of securing their defense perimeter, on the one hand, and preventing the US military from interfering with their "projects" in Asia, such as invading Taiwan and securing as much of the offshore oil in South Asia as possible. To accomplish these objectives, the Chinese don't have to "match up" in every military category versus the US, they simply have to achieve conventional and asymmetrical military parity in Asia.
china has the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in the world - thanks to investment from the united states. they are also getting some of the most advanced telecommunications capabilities, and the most advanced auto manufacturing plants. these technoligies, along with whatever they can develop with aerospace - are the keys to a modern military.
While it's possible that the Chinese might "go for the whole enchilada", if they perceived a power vacuum after they became the undisputed masters of Asia, I think your taking things a bit too far. I just don't see the ChiCom leadership worrying about whether to hold the victory ceremony in San Francisco or D.C. I do believe that they have a pathological desire to avenge themselves on the Japanese, and to force all the countries of Asia to acknowledge Chinese military, economic and cultural superiority.
bttt
<< At the rate China is arming our biggest problems may be neither Muslims nor [Central and South American Indians]. >>
Close but no Christmas Box.
At the rate China is arming AND is increasing the numbers of its already many scores of thousands of agents in our every at home and abroard industry, production process, school, college, university, computer developer and manufactory, aircraft manufacturer, nuclear and every other kind of laboratory and government agency and is at the same time inciting, aiding, abetting and facilitating our every domestic and international "problem," including those comprising both Muslims and the criminal alien invasion.
<< China Building Military at Pace Last Seen in 1930s Germany
>>
For which we may all thank eight years of the traitors, Cli'ton.
BUMPping
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.