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GIULIANI '08: A REAL CHANCE
The New York Post ^ | 5/23/06 | John Podohertz

Posted on 05/23/2006 9:51:04 AM PDT by Blackirish

May 23, 2006 -- IN my new book ("Can She Be Stopped?"), I suggest that the Republican best suited to the challenge of preventing Hillary Clinton's ascension to the Oval Of fice in 2008 is Rudy Giuliani. A Fox News Opinion Dynamics poll released yesterday offers some strong ballast for the idea: In a head-to-head matchup, Rudy beats Hillary 49 percent to 40 percent, the best showing among all Republican contenders.

By contrast, John McCain has a 46-to-42 advantage over Hillary - besting her but not as decisively as Rudy does. Rudy is viewed favorably by 64 percent of those asked, McCain by 49 percent (Hillary: 50 percent).

And this is not a poll of Republicans alone: The respondents are 41 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican and 21 percent independent.

It's probably not surprising that Rudy wins in a head-to-head contest for the presidency. After all, Hillary is a lightning rod - while he, once a hugely controversial figure, has become beloved.

But what about in a Republican primary? Can Rudy possibly win?

In surveys of Republican primary voters, two names top every list - Giuliani and McCain. Each gets support from around 30 percent, with every other possible contender hovering around 2 or 3 percent at most.

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 911fetishist; antirudyhandwringers; bendingoverforrudy; biblethumpers; corrupt; fatchance; giuliani; giuliani2008; grannysgalpals; hopeso; iluvrudytherinosgush; iminluvwiththegirl; itsarudycirclejerk; lovesillegallatinos; nowaynochancenohow; oblandrinothread; ohowiluvtheerudy; ohrudypleasesaveus; podohertz; rino; rinohappyfizzyparty; rinosinkneepadshere; rockafellafreepers; rudy; rudyendorsesdemos; rudyishillarylight; rudyistheman; rudyrockefeller; shoverudyyourinos; sillyrinosposthere; stayinny; timetopurgetherinos
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To: Blackirish

Rudy is a liberal republican.

He will not get my primary vote by any means. Nor will McCain.

Tancredo might.


My order:

1. Cheney
2. Bush, J.
3. Allen, Tancredo, Frist
4. Gingrich
5. Rice


61 posted on 05/23/2006 10:26:14 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It. Supporting our Troops Means Praying for them to Win!)
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To: B Knotts
I will not vote for Giuliani. Period.

Good. I will. I saw him in action when he was mayor of NY; and I'm not a single issue voter.

62 posted on 05/23/2006 10:26:38 AM PDT by Cobra64 (All we get are lame ideas from Republicans and lame criticism from dems about those lame ideas.)
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To: Blackirish

The first prerequisite of a candidate is that they have to be able to competently face off with Hillary.

Y'all might find the choice is Giuliani or McCain by the time the primary makes it to your state - if no conservative leader throws his hat into the ring. What then?

We have Gingrich, but that would inevitably result in arguments about his personal life. As a conservative, however, he is probably the practical choice, he is intimately familiar with the establishment and is clear about what he would do if given the power, plus he has a generally good record of taking action, a sharp contrast to the blather of, say, an average Senator. Along the same lines but without the personal life drawbacks are Pence and Hastert who do not appear interested in running. There is VA Senator Allen, solidly conservative, with experience as governor. But Senators in general have a poor record in Presidential elections. Tom Tancredo, also solidly conservative, has a reputation as a one-issue politician (thread requirement fulfilled), which may help, and may hurt.

Of all the available candidates, who is going to be willing AND able to run a campaign? Maybe only Giuliani, McCain, and Allen. I think the law and order conservatism, class, and competence of Giuliani may end up winning a lot of voters. Plus, he is a proven winner of non-Republican voters as well, winning as a Republican - twice - in a major Democrat stronghold, and would find the national electorate easier to win.


63 posted on 05/23/2006 10:26:48 AM PDT by thoughtomator (A thread without a comment on immigration is not complete)
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To: HitmanLV
Agreed. It was "thank you very much for your service. Don't let the door hit you on the fanny on the way out."

Ironically, if it hadn't been for term limits, I'm not sure that he would've been re-elected to the second term. (He was popular enough that no one wanted to spend the money to run against him in 1997 when the race would be wide open in 2001. But against a heavyweight, it could've been a rough ride in '97.)

64 posted on 05/23/2006 10:27:06 AM PDT by Tanniker Smith (Without spoilers, do you think (blabberblabber) killed (mumblemumble) or not?)
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To: Alberta's Child
No evidence Kerick wouldn't have been a fine leader of DHC. His mistake was having a girlfriend on the side, not that he wouldn't have been a good choice otherwise.

You have a point regarding the war on Islamic terrorism, but that's peripheral to my point, so I will try to be clear. The GOP has said for years that the war is important, and that dem social agenda concerns should take a backseat.

When it's time for their social agenda concerns to take a backseat, they cry foul. It makes them look like fakes. They are fakes. This has nothing to do with running on it in 2008, it has to do with credibility.

People who want the other side to sacrifice their social agenda, but are unwilling to do the same, make us all look bad.
65 posted on 05/23/2006 10:27:24 AM PDT by HitmanLV ("5 Minute Penalty for #40, Ann Theresa Calvello!" - RIP 1929-2006)
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To: Blackirish

I won't vote for a gun grabber. Period. End of story.


66 posted on 05/23/2006 10:27:40 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (I believe that all government is evil, and that trying to improve it is largely a waste of time.)
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To: Cobra64

His political problems are far from a "single-issue" problem.


67 posted on 05/23/2006 10:27:41 AM PDT by B Knotts
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To: jla

Heheh.......thanks....I needed that laugh.


68 posted on 05/23/2006 10:28:04 AM PDT by Liz (We have room for but one flag, the American flag." —Theodore Roosevelt)
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To: Blackirish

GIULIANI '08: A REAL CHANCE



Dear God no.


69 posted on 05/23/2006 10:28:37 AM PDT by trubluolyguy (When Ted Kennedy and HRC support you Mr. President, it's time for some soul searching)
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To: Tanniker Smith
Rudy was a very controversial mayor and had reluctant respect, but never widespread popularity. I liked the guy and voted for him in 1989, 1993 and 1997.
70 posted on 05/23/2006 10:28:48 AM PDT by HitmanLV ("5 Minute Penalty for #40, Ann Theresa Calvello!" - RIP 1929-2006)
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To: justshutupandtakeit

Actually I think Guillani will get little support from most mainstream conservatives.


71 posted on 05/23/2006 10:29:04 AM PDT by TAdams8591
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To: Dont Mention the War
You clearly don't remember the New York political scene in 2001. If Rudy Giuliani had run for re-election as mayor of New York City on September 10th of that year, he would have lost.

Most people forget that New York City had grown tired of him by that time.

There are a number of other elected positions Rudy Giuliani could have pursued in the years since he left office -- including the U.S. Senate, the governor's office in New York, etc. The fact that he hasn't done so tells me that he's either not too interested in serving as an elected official or that he's very much aware of his serious shortcomings.

72 posted on 05/23/2006 10:29:19 AM PDT by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: justshutupandtakeit

A Guiliani-Allen ticket will kick @$$



I could see that happening. Allen is not ready.Also his big spending voting record and the whole Southern GOP insider...ties him too tightly to W. People already want a change from that.

But with Allen as VP........


73 posted on 05/23/2006 10:29:29 AM PDT by Blackirish
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To: thoughtomator
Newt has baggage. I've heard some good stuff from him, but I'd need to do some fresh digging on my key issues to see if I could vote for him.

My Big 3 right now are the Second Amendment, smaller government, and controlling our borders.

McInsane and Rudy don't meet a passing grade for any of them.

Pence, Allen, and Tancredo do.

74 posted on 05/23/2006 10:31:00 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (I believe that all government is evil, and that trying to improve it is largely a waste of time.)
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To: Blackirish

Rudi doesn't have a cold chance in hell. He can't attract the base. He's admired, but not wanted for the job. TOO SOCIALLY LIBERAL. A pro-abortion, pro-gay Republican is never going to get the nomination. Same reason Condi will never be President.


75 posted on 05/23/2006 10:31:38 AM PDT by DesScorp
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To: Blackirish

I think Rudy will be on the ticket.


76 posted on 05/23/2006 10:31:45 AM PDT by veronica ("A person needs a sense of mission like the air he breathes...")
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To: Jameison

Rudy is not pro-gay marriage. He recently said so.


77 posted on 05/23/2006 10:32:17 AM PDT by areafiftyone
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To: Alberta's Child

From what I have seen of the most recent FR poll, too many Republicans will sit this one out if Rudy or McLame win the primary.
Hildabeast will win by default.


78 posted on 05/23/2006 10:32:48 AM PDT by JerseyDvl ("Consensus is the absence of leadership" - Margaret Thatcher)
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To: justshutupandtakeit

When people like the limp-wristed jack@sses at the NY Post write these columns about the strong chances of some "moderate" Republican on a national level, they base their analysis on the implicit assumption that these candidates will appeal to moderate voters from both parties. There is no historical basis for this, as the appeal of these candidates diminishes substantially once they are no longer hypothetical candidates and they are subject to the close scrutiny of a national campaign.


79 posted on 05/23/2006 10:33:32 AM PDT by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: JerseyDvl

Then they will have only themselves to blame.


80 posted on 05/23/2006 10:34:07 AM PDT by linda_22003
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