Bush Losing Hispanics? (GOP ship of state becoming the Titanic?)

The American Thinker ^ | May 21, 2006 | Richard Baehr

[quidnunc]

So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60-65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more. 

More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).

Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration — appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics — and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.

Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.

The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the  right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia  after Pete Wilson’s immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).

That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP’s dream of being a majority party this year.

[George W. Bush]

Legal hispanic here, as far as I am concerned the most pressing issue right now is our loss of immigration control, I strongly support fining all businessed that hire illegal aliens and militarizing our borders if need be.

What you're saying is what our local legal Hispanics are saying. We need to hear more from the legal Hispanic immigrant community, those who played by the rules and who should not have their wages driven down by illegals who won't follow the rules.

What's sad is to read so many stories of how poorly immigrants of all races are treated when they do obey all the laws. Then Bush and the Senate want to reward people who have broken every rule. It is grossly unfair to the legal immigrants we have. And these illegals should not be granted amnesty when we have tens of thousands of legal immigrants or American citizens who have not been able to bring their own families here, sometimes after years of waiting. In some cases, after decades. It's terrible to do that to people who do play by the rules.

As Mark Levin says, we need immigrants. Legal immigrants who want to be Americans, just like all the immigrants who came here before. Crossing a border illegally doesn't make a person American. At least, it shouldn't. And we should do more to treat all our legal immigrants more fairly as well.

[George W. Bush]

The non liberal white Democratic voters are in the most danager of bolting the Democratic party,

The real danger is the unrest on the Dim plantation from blacks. They correctly see that the Dims will no longer pay any attention to them once they capture this new Hispanic vote. They don't like it one bit. I'm waiting to see whether they move toward the GOP in this election. If not, then by '08, I think.

[Kimberly GG]

"Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan. "

Never were. Pay attention D.C. Those signs don't say "Willing to Earn Amnesty" or "Secure the Border Now".

La Revolucion Continua........

http://www.mexica-movement.org/granmarcha.htm

http://medcarta.us/chicanopark/images.aspx

[Mr. Mojo]

2) by pandering to Hispanics, he loses his HUGE non-Hispanic voters.

A point that's often overlooked. They figure the voters who'd get peeved by their pandering have nowhere else to go, and that when it comes time to actually casting their votes they'll be sufficiently horrified by the Democrat nominee to automatically punch the "R" ticket. ....no matter who's on it.

They're dead wrong. Many would vote third party, many would vote Independent, and many would stay home out of protest or discouragement.

[Polybius]

Call them Hispanics? How about whites?

That use of the term "Hispanic" has a completely different meaning in Spanish-speaking countries.

In Spanish-speaking countries, "Hispano" (derived from the Roman province of Hispania) is used to mean "of or from Spain" in the same way that Americans use the term "British" (derived from the Roman province of Britannia) is used to mean ""of or from Great Britain".

For example, Banco Hispano Americano is a Spanish bank that does business in Latin America.

In Spanish-speaking countries, the race issue is talked about right up front without resorting to Political Correctness.

If you are White, you are a "Blanco". (Daisy Fuentes)

If you are Black, you are a "Negro". ("El Duque" Hernadez)

If you are of mixed White and Black blood, you are a "Mulatto". (Felipe Alou)

If you are of mixed White and Meso-American Indian blood (as is 60% of the Mexican population) you are a "Mestizo". (Cesar Chavez)

If you are of pure Indian blood, you would be an "Indio". (Montezuma)

If you are of Asian blood, you automatically become a "Chino" whether or not you are Chinese, Japanese or Korean. (Alberto Fujimori....ex-President of Peru)

An "Hispano" would be a Spaniard who would, as a separate matter, also be a Blanco.

Although Mexicans in Mexico celebrate being Mestizo, an American liberal would rather bite off his tongue than use the word and be considered Politically Incorrect.

Thus, in the U.S., an "Hispanic" means everything from a Blanco to a Mulatto to a Mestizo to an Indio but is frequently used as a euphemism to mean "not White".

[George W. Bush]

Well I have a scarier thought. What if they DID know and went ahead anyway? What would that suggest? Is there something happening here that the general population was not given the memo on? With the North American Union moving over into the passing lane, I have to believe that the suckers do know what they're doing.

I have posted a few times on this.

CFR and the business elites at the multinationals desire the North American Community, combining Canada, America and Mexico. This is a long-range plan, in the works for the last 25 years. Of all our secretaries of state and presidents and major media figures in the last 20 years, only Reagan was not a CFR member.

First came the peso bailour, opposed by 90% of citizens. Then came the Reagan amnesty for 3 million illegals but with enforcement provisions Reagan's successors refused to enforce. Then came NAFTA with 80%-90% opposition. Then lots of manufacturing moved to Mexico, something most people didn't like. Then even larger illegal immigration and the granting of all kinds of rights to them, again consistently opposed by the citizens, both liberal nad conservative. Then the attempts to eliminate the border entirely for drivers' license purposes. Then CAFTA. All of these things have been consistently opposed by voters across the board. And yet under the leadership of both parties, they have proceeded.

The primary actors in this this little drama are Bush I, Clinton I, Bush II, and soon Clinton II (Hillary). Just as the Clintons and Bushes have implemented the exact same plans on education, they are also the same in this unification plan. If Bush cna get Jeb to run in '08, then substitute Bush III for Clinton II. Same results either way though on this central shared agenda.

As for the GOP, the Rockefeller Republicans think this is their chance to purge the GOP once and for all of all Reagan-Gingrich conservatives and the influence of the Religious Right. Even if it costs them the majorities in Congress and the WH for decades, they prefer this so they can run the Romney's and the Guiliani's and the William Weld's, in short, all the liberal Republicans they want. What we'd end up with is what Canada has: our choice of two very liberal and almost identical parties.

The House conservatives correctly perceive the Rockefeller Republicans' agenda here. The country clubbers have always hated Reagan, always hated us, always hated the Christian and pro-life camp. This is why Bush lured the House into including the felony provisions in their legislation and then hung them out to dry on it. That is why Sensenbrenner is so angry. The House is pretty determined to hold their ground because they understand what the Rockefeller faction is trying to do to them, to the party, and to the country at large.

Well, like it or hate it, it's about the only explanation for what would otherwise be a total death wish by Bush and the GOP Senate in this amnesty fiasco.

[Revererdrv]

Is Juan Williams smart enough to be on t.v.? Maybe he is just there for Brit Hume to knock down.

[Polybius]

The highest were Cubans in Florida at around 51 percent (I faintly recall them being over 50 percent but I could be wrong)

That's a mistake. The "Florida Hispanic vote" does not mean only the "Cuban American vote" and most non-Cubans in Florida vote Democrat. So, you have to be careful what percentage applies to what.

In 2000, the Cuban American vote was 81% for Bush.

In 2004, the Cuban American vote was 77% for Bush.

While 72 percent of Hispanics voted for President Clinton in 1996, the figure dropped to 62 percent for Al Gore in 2000, and to 54 percent for John Kerry last year. Oh yeah, and Cuban Americans are all supposed to be right-wing Republicans. But while President Bush made gains among Hispanics in the last election, his support among Cubans in Miami is headed in the opposite direction: After winning 82 percent in 2000, his support fell to 77 percent in 2004.

[dandiegirl]

Does the GOP establishment honestly believe that by giving 30 million Hispanics (and their tens of millions of relatives) amenesty they have a chance in hell of securing even a small fraction of their vote?

They better wise up and get them out of here while they are still in power. The Mexicans will not vote Republican.

[Hop A Long Cassidy]

When I said "Cubans in Florida" I was sloppily referring to the TOTAL HISPANIC vote in Florida.

And, the Cubans combined with the other Hispanic voters added up to around 55 percent.

Do you have combined numbers in addition to Cuban Americans being around 77 percent in 2004?

And, did Bush's policy towards Cuba have anything to do with his drop in popularity?

[Polybius]

When I said "Cubans in Florida" I was sloppily referring to the TOTAL HISPANIC vote in Florida.

Cubans used to make up 80% of the Florida Hispanic vote so the "Cuban vote" and the "Hispanic vote" was pretty close. Now Cubans only make up 60% of the Florida Hispanic vote.

There goes the neighborhood. :-)

Do you have combined numbers in addition to Cuban Americans being around 77 percent in 2004?

In 2004, Bush received 56% of the Hispanic vote in Florida

And, did Bush's policy towards Cuba have anything to do with his drop in popularity?

I live in the Puget Sound area now so I am out of touch with the latest in Cuban politics.

I think that the 77% level is the new baseline as younger Cubans are old enough to vote and express youthful rebellion by ....gasp.....voting Democrat.

In my day, you might as well have told your parents that you were gay and have gotten a less shocked response.

In 2000, because of the Elian fiasco, the parents were able to do an "I told you so" on the younger generation and the Republican numbers went back above 80%.

[VeniVidiVici]

There goes the neighborhood. :-)

Now we have all these freaking New Yoricans moving en masse to Central Florida.

I could care less that they are Puerto Rican. It's the fact that they are from New York City - and Democrat.

The President could be swinging alot of these people over the immigration issue. But he's blowing it there too.

[Eastbound]

Well, I knew there had to be an explanation. So if there is no difference who we vote for, the only thing we can do until that big day when our sovereignty is officially down the tube is to vote conservative.

I hate it when something like this sneaks up on us. Just ruins my day. Hope it doesn't ruin the country.

Regardless, there are a lot of us that will not allow our national Sovereignty to be removed. The nation belongs to the people, not the gummint. Just a timely reminder to all concerned.

[OKIEDOC]

Mort hidden agenda by the pros at the hidden agenda MSM, trying to cause and stir up dissent in the Republican party.

Let S2611 get approved in it's current form and 60 million new Mexican oops American voters will certainly guarantee that we will have a government that somewhat favors the imbecilic corruption they have to live with in Mexico City.

This is the worst piece of legislation since Reconstruction days.

Besides I don't think Bush will lose that many of the 40% that voted for him in 2004.

Most of the Hispanics I talk with say they are angry at Democrats for wanting to give away for nothing what they had to work many years to get.

[Luke21]

I don't see how Kyl loses. He's solid all the way around. The most surprising group I see against the illegals are blacks. I drive a lot of them in my job. They get very angry at the taking of social services by illegals. The problem is, it won't affect their voting allegiance because they see Republicans as a threat to the same services.

[roses of sharon]

I thought Kyl was tough on illegals? Why would he be going down in the polls?

[George W. Bush]

Well, I knew there had to be an explanation. So if there is no difference who we vote for, the only thing we can do until that big day when our sovereignty is officially down the tube is to vote conservative. I hate it when something like this sneaks up on us. Just ruins my day. Hope it doesn't ruin the country.

Well, it's not a perfect explanation. But when you see such strange behavior, you have to assume they're not crazy. And when you have a string of events like peso bailout, NAFTA, CAFTA, vast fraud allowed in federal programs, the amnesty bill and you recognize an agenda by both parties against the wishes of 85% or more of the voters of both parties, then you must have an explanation. And since CFR touts the North American Community and is bipartisan...

Like I said, it's not perfect. But it is at least an explanation that is consistent.

[George W. Bush]

The most surprising group I see against the illegals are blacks. I drive a lot of them in my job. They get very angry at the taking of social services by illegals. The problem is, it won't affect their voting allegiance because they see Republicans as a threat to the same services.

Handled correctly, we could probably split the black vote on this.

They don't want to be marginalized as one of the 3 primary victim groups on the Dim plantation. They are starting to see very clearly how little regard the Dims have for them.

[NavyCanDo]

I'm reading allot of doubt that these numbers are true on the reply post. I believe it and I believe that Bush is between a rock and a hard place and that the GOP could be in some big trouble in 2008 and beyond.

In former White House adviser David Frum's book written in 2003, long before the border was front page news he writes this:

"Mexican Americans were emerging as the single most powerful swing voting bloc in U.S. elections, but one that was increasingly tilting against Bush's Republican Party. If the Mexican Americans were lured to the Democratic column by the promise of more lavish social spending and racial preferences for their children in college and on the job, the Republicans would be locked out of the White House forever. If, on the otherhand, Bush somehow found a way to reverse the Mexican American voting trend, he would reelect himself and bequeath a strongly competitive party to his successor."

Now this was written before the debate changed to just how closed to we want to close the border. Now I agree neither party seems to want to completely close the border as we in the base would wish, but you can clearly pick out the Party that is trolling for the Mexican American vote the strongest, the Dems. And they don't have a base that is upset by their fishing for Mexican American votes like we do.

Remember Bush won Florida by a mere 500 votes. Florida, a State with a large and fast growing Hispanic population.

I can see the dilemma that Bush faces. Best I can do is pray for him, pray for our Party, but most important pray for our country. God help us if North America becomes the Western Hemisphere's version of the European Union, but I can see it coming.

[small voice in the wilderness]

...but...