Posted on 05/21/2006 12:41:14 PM PDT by quidnunc
So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60-65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more.
More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).
Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration — appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics — and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.
Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.
The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia after Pete Wilson’s immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).
That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP’s dream of being a majority party this year.
Tell that to Mayor 'there's no way he can win' Nagin.
Fake Polls are for morons too lazy to think.
WaPo probably polled their janitorial staff...
Yes, not all janitors are hispanic, but liberals can't tell the difference between immigrants.
(To a liberal, all people of color look alike.)
Does the GOP establishment honestly believe that by giving 30 million Hispanics (and their tens of millions of relatives) amenesty they have a chance in hell of securing even a small fraction of their vote? This amnesty would be an electoral disaster beyond their worst nightmares.
Brought to you by cheap labor "conservatives" who have not really enforced immigration laws since the 1990 immigration "reform" act that Bush 41 signed. If this trend is maintained, sadly many good Republicans will be taken down.
this is the "elephant in the room" on this immigration issue. where are legal Hispanic Americans on this issue? I think its tough to read.
if the only way to get votes of legal Hispanic Americans - is too allow 100 million new Hispanic ummigrants over the next 20 years, via amnesty and family "unification" - this country is in serious trouble.
Leftwing writers at the Washington Post:
Writing the paper Americans won't read.
The establishment is represented by the likes of Fred Barnes and his ilk, who live mostly in the Northeast Corridor, plus a good sized contingent that live in California and Texas exurbs/gated communities that are far removed from reality. I am sick of the sellout of America for 30 peices of silver.
The GOP isn't smart enough to figure out that it is signing it's own death warrant by giving these illegal aliens amnesty. They will NEVER vote republican. Every one of these RINO senators will be targeted for defeat. Rush cannot say it often enough....when we run on conservative principles, we win every time.
they are between a rock and a hard place (not that I favor the amnesty mind you).
while its true that alot of white and african american Democrats do not favor amnesty, or the kinds of new immigrant numbers this bill would allow in - are those blocks willing to change their votes and go republican over this issue?
The Dems are clearly betting that their current base, will not switch parties over amnesty and new mass immigration.
Which side is right?
its not so much a concern over how the newly minted immigrants would vote - the issue is more, how will current hispanic american citizens vote on this issue?
I haven't seen any good polls on that.
Even if these new immigrants had a fully westeren background, just back their economic status alone, most will make less than $25K a year, will see them vote Democratic by a 2-1 margin when they vote for politicians that will give them all sorts of benifits, as what has happened to California. But with non Westeren and often Marxist backgrounds, even immigrants that are far up on the economic ladder, like the H-1B visa holders that become citizens vote for Democrats by a 2-1 or even a 3-1 margin.
I have mentioned this before, but it bears repeating, do business owners and managers who have been behind this mess since the early 80s lack the critical thinking skills to see that this will produce a national political enviroment that will be far worse than the carter years were in terms of the govrenmnet being anti business?
Am I the only one to think it is wrong for writers such as this to continue to lump all Hispanics together in the same voting bloc?
The only Hispanics I can tell that are in favor of kowtowing to the illegals are the illegals that are already here!
Legal hispanic here, as far as I am concerned the most pressing issue right now is our loss of immigration control, I strongly support fining all businessed that hire illegal aliens and militarizing our borders if need be.
I certainly agree with you about the NEW immigrants future voting patterns.
but what about current hispanic american citizens, which way are they going over this issue?
its a hard issue to read. myself, being in NY, most of my latino neighbors and co-workers are from cuba, puerto rico, dominican republic, etc. and they agree with your sentiment. but not being in the southwest where there is more of a mexican/central american demographic, is the opinion different in that block?
It's a safe bet. Traditional Dem voters will convince themselves that without the pressure their party put on the GOP this amnesty - a huge addition their precious multicultural soup - wouldn't have happened.
Also, a large chunk of these new citizens are natural Democrats -- 29% of all illegal aliens are on welfare. You think their welfare state mentality will vanish after they become citizens? Not a chance. They know full well the Dems are the party of handouts.
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