[Southack]

Iran's letter to President Bush wasn't a warning; it's a bluff.

And this is not a game of tiddly winks. I gave examples such as 9/11/01, the USS Cole bombing, the Khobar Towers attack, Somalia Blackhawk Down, Beirut barracks bombings, African embassy bombings, et al to hit home the key point that the **real** attacks aren't preluded by warnings.

Nor was the attack on Spain's trains (or on London's 7/7 subways).

No warnings. No warning on any of the above.

Iran's letter to President Bush re-used an ancient Jihad threat in order to give credibility to a modern bluff. Without that thin veneer, it would be obvious to all invovled that Iran was bluffing. And for those paying attention, it still is obvious.

Pause

Here is what is going on: Iran is playing the insane rodeo clown. If you are familiar with cowboy rodeos, the rodeo clowns distract the bull away from the downed bull-rider.

Well, that's what Iran is doing.

Iran is distracting the U.S. military focus away from their downed rider: Hezbollah.

The government of Beirut has precious little control over Southern Lebanon right now, but had even less control when Syrian troops occupied that country. This is where Hezbollah operates.

But Hezbollah's safe haven was blown by a botched German prisoner exchange with a known PFLP terrorist for a German national held hostage in Iraq. Once the exchange was completed, the PFLP terrorist was seen fleeing to Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon...cementing the suspicions in the Coalition that Hezbollah was directing a large part of the insurgency inside Iraq.

Moreover, Hezbollah's protection has vanished. Faced with an ultimatum from President Bush, Syria's Assad withdrew his army from Lebanon. Thus, in two brief actions, Hezbollah was exposed as well as made vulnerable...military action from Israel, the Christian Beirut government, or from the U.S. (or a combination) against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon no longer faced a wider war with Syria.

Hezbollah is on its own.

Now, you have to remember that Hezbollah is an Iranian umbrella group. Iran provides Hezbollah's funds, some training, and most of their weapons. In return, Hezbollah does Iran's bidding against the U.S. and Israel.

But with Hezbollah now exposed as a major player in the Iraq insurgency, and further made vulnerable by the withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon, Iran is facing losing one of its most powerful proxies...a loss that it can ill-afford as it has few friends in the region (Iranians are Persian, a race that has a traditional, pre-Islamic animosity toward Arabs).

And Iran has very few ways to project very little power. Defending Hezbollah physically inside Lebanon itself against an Israeli or U.S. attack would expose Iran to a crushing defeat both there as well as inside Iran itself due to simple military over-stretch.

So Iran is doing something desperate; they are "threatening" nuclear war against Israel and the U.S...two nuclear powers each capable of individually ending all life inside Iran itself.

Their theory is that the U.S. can't possibly (due to domestic and internation political considerations) wage a new war against Lebanon while Iraq is "in chaos" as Iran threatens nuclear war.

So by playing this bluff, Ahmadinejad believes that he can protect Hezbollah from being smashed by the U.S. military in Southern Lebanon.

And so far, he's right (though I'd place emphasis upon "so far").

Pause

But, it plays into Iran's gameplan to claim that radical jihadists "always warn their victims to convert before they attack."

They don't. They didn't warn before 9/11/2001, nor before the USS Cole bombing, nor before the Khobar Towers bombings, etc.

In short, making the sorts of claims that a few uninformed posters are making on this thread AIDS THE ENEMY.

Don't do that.

[Alia]

I'm with you all the way on your analysis. Early on, One term consistent through Ramsey Clarke (ad nauseum) groups was Hezbollah and Hamas, but the one most singularly adored was Hezbollah. Instanter, when WSJ report on the org names with access to terrorist states happened, oopsie, those links and the search engines were shut down from public access. An asidem point.

Thanks for pinging me.

[MHGinTN]

Spot on ... don't you feel the Iranian 'revolution' is failing and this is also a portion of MaMooed's calculsu to invigorate the masses in Iran?

[Marine_Uncle]

Good points S. I would also add, that Ahmadinajah may see where he is slowly loosing in the game of power plays with some of the top mullahs. I used and example while communicating with Enchante earlier in this post that he has been denied twice on to demands concerning how to handle the Iranian central bank money. And for all we know a lot of the mullahs and more sane intel/secret police/military may be wondering what the hell is this guy trying to prove. They realize we could totally cream them without much loss on our side. He behaves exactly like the eraser head. North Korea is in ruins and Kim Jong II acts like he is able to destroy the US with a few nuclear weapons.
I see so many parallels between them. The Iranian madman loves the power he now has. He is not a very well educated man by the looks of it. He may just push to the point where the mullahs decide he must meet with an unfortunate accident. And we do not see clearly as to happens within the mullah hierachy. Are sides forming on issues that represent their well being and how they hold unto their personal wealth.
Dictator types whether secular or in this case cultic always seem to operate the same way. Their goal is always ultimate power. As in Saddams case this guy may really be of the same makeup. He is a criminal, youth full of rage and single minded goals etc..
I think he is a mirror of Kim Jong II and say Chavez. Little people that made it to the top. Both full of hate for the US.
In the case of Iran. The mullahs picked him to keep the people under the yoke of Islam, instead of gravitating more toward western ideas and democracy in a purer form.
But he may reach a point where they become to scared to keep him around. There economy contines to get worse, un-employment increases. He challanges a power that could take them out within a days time. Strategically strip them of anything the US no longer would permit them to have.
And a lot of Iranians understand the reality of things.
So as he throws one bluff after another, he may be making more people in Iran very nervouse. And many of them may be in positions to have him removed. That is another take on why we (collectively) may be over reacting a bit.
Sure they are making small amounts of U235 at supposedly a 5% enrichment yield and some day if they can construct and operate over long periods before mean time failure, run large cascade centrifuge systems, obtain enough U235 to make a few low yield atomic bombs. But every day they must live under the pressure of wondering if the strikes against them will start.
I look at it like a two edge sword. The Six Fleet surface and subs are sitting in the gulf. And madman may for some reason not understand their ass is grassed, if we let lose on them, but surely plenty others in high positions know quite well they will lose big time.
And for all we know, the Shah of Iran's son may not be to off based in what he has been saying is planned to effect regiem change. In which case, the whole puzzle gets dumped into the trash bin, and a new one is layed out on the table.

[PghBaldy]

I'm "aiding the enemy?" You've got to be kidding.

[PghBaldy]

There's always warnings. Osama had a tape in June 2001. They keep releasing tapes, they keep attacking. I guess you haven't paid any attention the last 5+ years. Osama declared war on us originally in the nineties. It WAS covered in the press at the time...

[JimSEA]

They didn't warn before 9/11/2001, nor before the USS Cole bombing, nor before the Khobar Towers bombings, etc.

I beg your pardon but as Published in Al-Quds al-'Arabi on Febuary 23, 1998: Sheikh Usamah Bin-Muhammad Bin-Ladin: The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies--civilians and military--is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. This is in accordance with the words of Almighty God, "and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together," and "fight them until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in God."

We -- with God's help -- call on every Muslim who believes in God and wishes to be rewarded to comply with God's order to kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and whenever they find it. We also call on Muslim ulema, leaders, youths, and soldiers to launch the raid on Satan's U.S. troops and the devil's supporters allying with them, and to displace those who are behind them so that they may learn a lesson.?

Granted that it was after the Khobar Towers but certainly the Iranian Mullahs voiced enough warning that we could have (and to a large extent did) expect to be attacked. We had plenty of warnings. Now Iran is no more explicit as to when or where an attack might come in this letter to Bush but it seems clear that they intend to strike.

[blasater1960]

Thank you for the insight. Very interesting. But, do you think that Hezbollah is that big of deal for Iran to risk a premptive attack by US, Israel and NATO? Hezbollah has a few thousand missiles to be sure but Israel could squash them in no time. If Hezbollah were truly a threat Arik would have dispatched them, I would think.......?

[Pukin Dog]

Just when did you go off and get so smart? You know I had a problem with all your incessant posting on Unmanned drones, but I have to tell you, you have been making a lot of sense lately, and I wanted you to know that you have earned my respect. Just don't tell me about drones, and you can consider me a bud. Nice work.

[Mr. Silverback]

I was going to respond point by point, but then I realized how out of your depth you are. Wanna know why? Because thinking that the Battle of Mogadishu was a terror attack, especially one they could have warned us about, is like offering an opinion on WWII while thinking that Operation Barbarossa was a Jane Fonda movie.

We are not aiding the enemy, and you should parade your ignorance elsewhere.