Rick Santorum gaining ground on Bob Casey in Pennsylvania

Strategic Vision ^ | May 10, 2006

[Clintonfatigued]

14. If the election for United States Senate were held today, and the choice was between Robert Casey, Jr., the Democrat and Rick Santorum, the Republican, whom would you vote for?

Robert Casey 49%

Rick Santorum 41%

Other 1%

Undecided 9%

[NAVY84]

"pro strong defense" is going down hill in the Philly Burbs.

I think that will eventually swing this area further left. Part of the problem is the BRAC. We love our bases in PA and the last of the major ones are goin' fast. Willow Grove gets 250,000 plus to it's Air Shows and is a giant recruiting poster. It doesn't hurt havin' lots of Warthogs, Herky Birds and others buzzin' around. That's gonna be the end of the last connection to the military that many SE Pennsylvanians have besides the MSM. I think a strong military presence in all 50 states is esential for maintaining the all volunteer armed forces and keeping Patriotism front and center.

[Clintonfatigued]

There's a bit of bad news in this poll. Ed Rendell has regained the lead over Lynn Swann. However, that race is still competitive, too.

Pennsylvania will be the Keystone State politically, too.

[buckeyesrule]

Good for him I hope he wins. Maybe I'll send him and Blackwell and the guy in Steele some money.

[Torie]

Your link is not to the Strategic Vision poll (but the poll does exist), but Taegan notes that a Quinnipiac poll (which tends to be more Dem friendly I think), has quite different numbers. This seat in my mind remains Likely Dem. This isn't going to be turned around, unless Casey really fumbles, the national mood changes, and/or Santorum runs a brilliant campaign. I just don't say that happening.

"In Pennsylvania, Casey Leads by 13 Politics PA reports that a new Quinnipiac poll to be released Thursday morning shows Bob Casey (D) leading Sen. Rick Santorum, 49% to 36%."

As a sidebar, the Stategic poll has the following:

"1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 27%
Disapprove 64%
Undecided 9%

Bush won't be seen in Pennsylvania this year on the campaign trail.

[smoothsailing]

Compared to anywhere in the south it is.

Not really. If Atlanta had the population of Philadelphia, Georgia could be blue. It's the liberal big cities that screw things up.

[Torie]

The GOP runs much better in Southern large metro area suburbs (as opposed to exurbs) than in most of the rest of the country. Metro Atlanta does not vote that much differently than the rest of Georgia.

[NAVY84]

Close races are best. People stay interested. Swann will do just fine.

[smoothsailing]

Agreed. Our family has a place off the coast of Charleston, and the same is true there.

What is somewhat bothersome is the undue influence of these large cities. While the northern cities are gradually losing population, the southern ones are gradually gaining population.

The north may ultimately become the old south. Imagine that.

[MassachusettsGOP]

It really depends on where you are in PA

[nj26]

"I think a strong military presence in all 50 states is essential for maintaining the all volunteer armed forces and keeping Patriotism front and center."

Couldn't agree more. DoD has made a major mistake in largely pulling the military out of the Northeast.

[NAVY84]

That's actually one of the few bad decisions Rumsfeld has made.

[lawnguy]

I don't know about Penn, but in my neck of the woods, the libs hate Bush, but I don't think they will turn out well in the mid-terms. The fact is they make a lot of noise, but I don't think their heart is in it.

I think the immigration issue will have settled down by then, and the base will come to it's senses and deny Speaker Pelosi her post.

If Santorum and Swann could win in Penn, it would cause the dems to spend a lot of time and money there in 08.

[zbigreddogz]

This is going to be a squeeker.

We REALLY need some good clips of Bob Casey being...Bob Casey.

Let's just put it this way, if Casey has any 'deer in the headlights' moments, or any 'I voted for it before I voted against it' moments, Santorum will win.


If not, it'll be really, really close.

[Rembrandt]

"This race is closing, as we all knew it would, and will continue to close until election day. I hate to say it, but I think which ever way the country is feeling on Nov 7 will determine this election. (Which seems not to be the case in most other races) If Bush and Congress can put out some Conservative meaningful agenda, things will look good for Santorum. Unfortunatly at this point though, this hasn't happened, and I would give Casey a close 1-2% win on Election day."

I imagine Rush could make the prediction. If the Steelers come out winning from the first regular season game thru November, Santorum and Swannie will both win. My guess is that the Steelers, Santorum and Swannie will all come thru!

[Tribune7]

Some decent news.

[fatima]

Can I get on your ping list please.

[Tribune7]

You're on.

[fatima]

We just got a letter from Swann yesterday and we want to send him a few bucks.

[fatima]

Thanks:)

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

Not really. If Atlanta had the population of Philadelphia, Georgia could be blue. It's the liberal big cities that screw things up.

Atlanta'a metro area is actually larger than Philly's and growing.