Good questions. I haven't been following the Mexican elections in the news so I'm not sure what's happening there in any detail. Regarding oil supplies, oil is easily shipped from one country to another so it trades in a world market and there is no way to cut off supplies to any one country except to produce less. That would hurt Mexico so Mexico probably won't cut their production. If they try to sell oil to another country (e.g. France, Germany, Japan, S. Korea) instead of to us, we can just buy the oil immediately from that third country and have the 3rd country's tanker stop in Houston or Los Angeles and unload the oil on its way home.
At what price? (would be buy).