Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

'06 Election Results May Point to Pivotal '08 States
Los Angeles Times ^ | May 7, 2006 | Ronald Brownstein

Posted on 05/07/2006 1:13:32 PM PDT by kellynla

This fall's midterm election won't only decide which party will control Congress and statehouses around the nation. It also could identify which states may emerge as new battlegrounds in the 2008 presidential race that will effectively begin as soon as the votes are counted in November.

In the last two campaigns, the parties divided the electoral map almost exactly in half. In 2000, George W. Bush won the second-narrowest Electoral College victory since 1800. In 2004, Bush won a smaller share of Electoral College votes than any reelected president except Woodrow Wilson in 1916.

But if the Republican advantage under Bush has been slim, it also has been stable. Only three states switched between parties from the 2000 presidential contest to the 2004 vote. And each of them — New Mexico, Iowa and New Hampshire — was a small state that tilted narrowly one way in 2000 and narrowly the other four years later.

Bush carried 29 states twice. Those states are worth 274 Electoral College votes — four more than needed to win the White House. And, at least through his first term, Bush solidified the Republican grip on that terrain. In 2004, Bush held Democratic challenger Sen. John F. Kerry to 43% of the vote or less in 21 of those 29 states. What's more, Republicans since 2000 have widened their lead in House and Senate seats from the "red" states that twice backed Bush.

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: 2006; brownstein; election; gop; midterms; republicans; swingstates
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021 next last
The Gelding Old Party has shown it can't lead...
1 posted on 05/07/2006 1:13:36 PM PDT by kellynla
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: kellynla

Maybe that Big Tent approach isn't all its cracked up to be.. to claim it has done any good in California is just a wee bit of a stretch.

when you are faced with twiddledee and twiddledum.. is it any wonder how some react?


2 posted on 05/07/2006 1:25:52 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kellynla

Can anyone give me a link or list all of the seats up for reelection? Thanks


3 posted on 05/07/2006 1:27:07 PM PDT by freedom44
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freedom44

Strangely enough, midterm elections are extremely poor predictors of the next presidential election. The correlation is just about zero. I myself was surprised until I looked at the data. 1994 was a good Republican year, but Clinton was reelected. 1982 was a good Democrat year but in 1984 Reagan was reelected.



4 posted on 05/07/2006 1:33:17 PM PDT by scrabblehack
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: kellynla

this is garbage....and lazy journalism...it is a set up to say of the DEMS do well in 2006, theyll sweep 2008.

In 1994, the GOP swept IL, OH, PA, MI, NY, CA and the year before NJ. Did they win any of those states in 1996??? NOPE!!

In 1982, the DEMS swept the midwest and EVERY SINGLE statewide office in TX....How many EVs did the DEMS get in 1984? mmmm..13 i think.

In 1986, the DEMS won 9/10 competitve Senate seats. How many of those states went Dukakis in 1988?


5 posted on 05/07/2006 1:37:33 PM PDT by georgia2006
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kellynla
The Liberals should be careful what they wish for because if they win and start impeachment proceedings on Bush, I think the whole country will grow very weary of watching the Democratic loony left and mainstream media's non stop hate Bush orgy and the party will pay for it in 2008.
6 posted on 05/07/2006 1:51:30 PM PDT by when the time is right
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kellynla
In 2008 the Republicans will have an entirely new candidate and Bush's results against Kerry and Gore won't matter a wit.

I predict 2008 will be a landslide one way or the other, and the candidate who comes out strongly against immigration will be the winner of the landslide.
7 posted on 05/07/2006 2:01:07 PM PDT by conservative physics
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kellynla

Slime Republicans all you want, you are way off, as is your lib buddy Brownstein: the GOP will pick up one seat (minimum, net) in the Senate, and one to five in the House. Bank on it.


8 posted on 05/07/2006 2:23:29 PM PDT by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NormsRevenge
The Big Tent approach brought in winners in NC, MO, MN, GA, PA, and SD over the last few years. You might not like all the candidates, but it's hard to argue with two consecutive gains in the Senate and House when in BOTH elections the GOP was "supposed to lose" seats.

And in 2006, the GOP will gain, net, minimum, one Sen. seat and one to five house seats. (Personally, I think the Senate gain will be two to three, but I'm being cautious).

9 posted on 05/07/2006 2:25:27 PM PDT by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: kellynla

Arizona has now made it mandatory that you be a U.S. citizen and Arizona resident in order to vote. You will have to prove it before you get a ballot. (Weird, isn't it). From all the whining and crying that we're hearing from the 'RATS in this state, I expect Arizona to swing back to the GOP.


10 posted on 05/07/2006 2:57:02 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Remember the Alamo!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: when the time is right

"The Liberals should be careful what they wish for because if they win and start impeachment proceedings on Bush"

a Cheney presidency looks very appealing at this point!


11 posted on 05/07/2006 2:58:43 PM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots. Semper Fi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: conservative physics
and the candidate who comes out strongly against immigration will be the winner of the landslide.

Wow, why don't you just say you expect a GOP landslide in '08, because there is zero chance of an anti-immigrant Dem candidate, while there is a 50% chance of an anti-immigrant GOP candidate.

12 posted on 05/07/2006 3:11:46 PM PDT by nwrep
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: nwrep

you underestimate the Democrats need to regain power.


13 posted on 05/07/2006 3:58:26 PM PDT by conservative physics
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: FlingWingFlyer

Good move by Arizona. This should be a Federal law as well - before it's too late.


14 posted on 05/07/2006 5:54:20 PM PDT by Malesherbes
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Malesherbes

And, also here in Arizona, you have to connect the line with the pencil - NO CHADS! If you make a mistake, they'll tell you to take a new ballot and you have 3 chances or you're through! Now, if we can only muster up our republican women to NOT vote for Nepalitano (I have my Len Munsel sticker on my car)///


15 posted on 05/07/2006 5:59:52 PM PDT by princess leah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: LS

I guess if you can accept or better yet sell prochoice/proabortion, pro gun control candidates , members of the gang of 14 as being on the conservative side of the spectrum.. but they are not,, oh well more power to ya , no pun intended. ;-)

The nation is battling a liberal infestation in the GOP from sea to shining sea... and as the invasion of our borders, so to , this invasion is not getting a lot of attention, in fact seems to be sanctioned and encouraged, including more than a few here. (Maybe we should change the mission statement of FR, just take conservative off and use words like diversity and inclusive and waa laaa , you'll have what the New Majority movement is all about.)

We're sure seeing the way it works here in California and the US Senate the last few years,, and it ain't cheap no matter how much it claims to be for lower taxes and less globalmint.

The more I see of the likes of Coleman and Specter specifically, I do question at what cost and to what ends the GOP is willing to go .. and whether the big tent is all its cracked up to be by some here.

We may well reap the whirlwind of a moderate crop of lemons this year and in '08.. here's hoping its not a bumper crop and some real conservatives make it thru the gauntlet.

Chafee, Collins and Graham also seem like examples of something, not sure quite what tho.


16 posted on 05/07/2006 9:02:48 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: FlingWingFlyer

Naw, you can show a light bill and the sample ballot with your name on it as two forms of ID here. It's all window dressing. I just got my sample ballot and read the full page of stuff that passes for identification at the polls.
It's much ado about nothing.


17 posted on 05/07/2006 11:34:46 PM PDT by Luke21
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: scrabblehack
Strangely enough, midterm elections are extremely poor predictors of the next presidential election. The correlation is just about zero.

It's not really so surprising. People don't think about who may be running for president two years away.

Things change fast and the voters concentrate on current events. Every election is a snapshot of the voters and the pols.
18 posted on 05/08/2006 2:50:00 AM PDT by George W. Bush
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: NormsRevenge
Interesting you mention pro-abortion, because those senators in particular gave us the judges that appear to be turning the tide. As far as I know, they all voted for a vote on Owens, Brown, et. al., and most voted for Alito and Roberts. They ALL voted for the WoT. Most voted for ANWAR.

So it is you who are peddling the "purity" notion, and perfection is the enemy of the good. I won't hesitate, when strategically feasible to vote against a RINO, and I don't plan to vote for DeWine in the fall. But that could change if the Senate is in jeopardy.

We should all live by the dean of conservatism's advice (that would be William F. Buckley, Jr.): "I plan to vote for the most conservative candididate who is electable."

19 posted on 05/08/2006 4:05:38 AM PDT by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: LS

Interesting you mention pro-abortion .. (I am referring to the larger picture and not just thiose who pass the "test").

imo, The GOP is moving in 2 directions or has 2 warring factions if you will...and can easily be swung around to go the opposite direction at the state level which we do see happening here in california , a prime example.

The gOP is not even effectively fielding a candidate against DiChiFi.

--

What is so evil about purity, btw?

Your comment about DeWine is a bit of a stretch using your same logic, imo. so you won't vote for him in any case, is that my read? That seems to contradict what you say within the bulk of your reply.

--

"I plan to vote for the most conservative candididate who is electable."

Sometimes there is little conservative in any of the candidates, what then? It hasn;t done much for us here in the Gol-darn state.







20 posted on 05/08/2006 9:49:05 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson