[scrabblehack]

Strangely enough, midterm elections are extremely poor predictors of the next presidential election. The correlation is just about zero. I myself was surprised until I looked at the data. 1994 was a good Republican year, but Clinton was reelected. 1982 was a good Democrat year but in 1984 Reagan was reelected.

[George W. Bush]

Strangely enough, midterm elections are extremely poor predictors of the next presidential election. The correlation is just about zero.

It's not really so surprising. People don't think about who may be running for president two years away.

Things change fast and the voters concentrate on current events. Every election is a snapshot of the voters and the pols.