And so it was when Ben Franklin conducted his little known first experiments with electricity. As Ben so wisely stated, "Only a fool would try something like that two times!"
SO...Now you know the reeessssssssst of the story.
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Locked on 05/07/2006 11:16:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson, reason:
Enough already! |
Posted on 05/06/2006 3:16:11 PM PDT by blam
Expert: H5N1 Worst Flu Virus He's Ever Seen
Thursday, May 04, 2006
SINGAPORE — A leading expert said Thursday the H5N1 virus is the worst flu virus he's ever encountered, and far too many gaps in planning and knowledge persist for the world to handle it in the event of a pandemic.
The virus is a vicious killer in poultry, moving into the brain and destroying the respiratory tract, said Robert G. Webster, a virologist at the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn.
"I've worked with flu all my life, and this is the worst influenza virus that I have ever seen," said Webster, who has studied avian flu for decades. "If that happens in humans, God help us."
(For complete bird flu coverage, visit Foxnews.com's Bird Flu Center.)
So far, most human cases have been linked to contact with infected birds, but experts fear the virus will mutate into a form that easily spreads from person to person, potentially sparking a global pandemic.
Webster predicted it would take at least 10 more mutations before the H5N1 virus could potentially begin spreading from human to human, but said there's no way to know when — or if — that will ever happen.
"All of those mutations are out there, but ... the virus hasn't succeeded in bringing it together," he said at the end of a two-day bird flu conference in Singapore organized by The Lancet medical journal.
Webster also called for more vaccine to be stockpiled, calling current efforts "miserable."
He said research in ferrets suggests that vaccination with a bird flu virus that circulated earlier in Hong Kong protected the animals from dying when they were later infected with the H5N1 virus now spreading in Vietnam. Such vaccination could potentially be used as a primer...
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Our cleaning lady is LDS and she told me that their ward has been STRONGLY suggesting they stock up on food and water if/when this flu hits. So I gave her three pork loin roasts from my freezer.
That was a Bird Flu too. The difference between the 'swine flu' and the H5N1 and the 1918 Flu is that the 'swine flu' had to go through a pig to be able to infect humans.
The H5N1 and Spanish Flu are unique in that it goes straight from birds to humans. We were 'saved' from the swine flu because when it mutated in the pig to be able to infect people, it weakened substancially. Medical experts were unable to predict that weakening.
The hope is that when it makes the H2H transition/mutation is that it weakens.
Not a biologist, but aren't these mutations more or less a roll of the dice?
Yes and no. The formation (via mutation) of a new gene which performs a particular function is pretty much a "roll of the dice". But once various novel mutations have come into existence, they can float around in the organism's genepool indefinitely (although they can also become ubiquitous or be flushed out entirely). And in a case like this, any one gene isn't the problem -- the problem comes when you have a virus with a certain *combination* of abilities, which means it has acquired several genes which together give it all those abilities.
The biologist's comment in this story says that the first hurdle (the existence of genes which do the "parts" of the "bad combination") has already been achieved -- those genes already exist and are in various flu viruses "out there". The risk now is whether those genes come together in a single virus to give it the ability to become a pandemic. And while that doesn't happen every day, it is an "easier" (i.e. more likely) task than the formation of those "toolbox" genes in the first place.
And while viruses don't mix-and-match their genes via sexual reproduction like a great many organisms do, there's something called "lateral gene transfer" which often results in a similar kind of "gene trading". It's not uncommon to find viruses or bacteria which have acquired chunks of DNA from unrelated viruses/bacteria by this method.
So the big question is how soon, in the semi-random viral "swap meet" that goes on all the time in nature, will a H5N1 virus manage to get "lucky" enough to end up with the complete package of genes which would give it the ability become a human epidemic? Like any stochastic process (i.e. one which relies to some degree on random events), there's no way to say for sure -- it could happen tomorrow, or it might never happen. But the concern is that gene-trading in viruses happens often enough that there's a very significant chance of it happening sometime within the next 10 years or so. And if it does, the consequences are horrific enough that we need to be ready to jump on it the instant it does, in the hopes of snuffing out the first occurrence before it gets completely out of control.
Since it can be contracted from birds, you have to take precautions against... one flu over the cuckoo's nest.
Read the article linked in post #54, you're gonna be SOL if you wait until 'it' hits. Our JIT supply system will come to a stand-still that will make the Katrina chaos in NO look like a picnic in contrast.
LOL. My brother called and said he was ready for the Bird Flu pandemic. I said yeah, what did you do? He bought 20 cans of tuna, lol. I said you mean you and Rene can live on one-half can tuna each for three weeks?
I've already told him if he comes over here to eat, he has to stay the duration, no coming/going.
And so it was when Ben Franklin conducted his little known first experiments with electricity. As Ben so wisely stated, "Only a fool would try something like that two times!"
SO...Now you know the reeessssssssst of the story.
And would the Spanish flu shot, if it had existed, also cause Parkinson's?
Thanks for the ping on this. Latest case was in Egypt.
The patient is a 27-year-old woman from Cairo who was hospitalized with bilateral pneumonia on 1 May.
Her infection has been linked to exposure to diseased poultry during a recent visit to the Minufiyah governorate. While there, she stayed in a household where numerous chickens were slaughtered.
She is dead 3 days later. Vicious killer no doubt.
Now, a couple questions:
With all the 'elements' drifting around out there isn't it inevidable that it will hit the 'jackpot?' And, couldn't it hit the jackpot in many different forms, some more lethal than others?
Won't H5N1 become endemic in wild birds worldwide and won't we always be living with the H2H possibility?
I've also read that there are now five 'strains' of virus 'out-there' that could cause a pandemic, not just the H5N1 variant?
Noone is paying attention to this. Noone KNOWS what will happen but few are prepared if things go bad. If nothing happens you are ready for potential terrorist attack etc. which is not out of the realm of reality today. In a worse case scenario, all the unwashed masses will be pouring into the high school gymnasiums and hospitals begging for govt assistance.
Review of latest available evidence on risks to human health through potential transmission of avian influenza (H5N1) through water and sewage
Interest in avian influenza H5N1 is high among the policy and technical communities and the general public because of concern for the high mortality rates in the rare human infections with avian H5N1; and because of concern that a new human pathogenic strain may evolve from H5N1.
There is a paucity of information on avian influenza H5N1 virus presence and stability in water and sewage, its route of transmission from bird to humans through water and sewage and on associated risks to exposed humans. The purpose of this document is to summarize the available evidence on avian influenza-related risks to human health associated with water resources, water supplies and sanitation (management of human excreta). It is intended to serve as the scientific basis to inform a more general briefing note, including questions and answers, directed at public health authorities, those involved in the management of water resources and supplies, and the general public.
This document is periodically revised as more information becomes available. Questions and answers are being separately developed and will also be periodically updated. To this end, we welcome comments, which may be submitted via email to WSHavianflu@who.int.
Am trying to decipher this now.
http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/emerging/avianflu/en/index.html
This was in 1918. There was no flu shot. I'm am also curious if a flu shot could prevent the degenerative brain effects.
The H5N1 Virus may not have mutated sufficiently to spread human to human YET, but you can bet that if it does, there will be more than a handful of dedicated al Qaeda jihadists who will be looking to get infected if only for the purpose of coughing their way to paradise by infecting the "infidels", meaning you and me and any other Western target.
In a "worst case scenario" reality will begger any apocolyptic movie ever made.
I have my house in order: hurricanes, Bird Flu, terrorist attacks, etc. If nothing happens, nothing lost. Regardless, I must be ready for hurricanes.
Infected birds landing in open drinking water reservoirs and contaminating water supply. Water treatment may kill the virus but it may call for boiling water.
Also on the water contamination note 2 people may have been infected swimming in contaminated waters and if you want to read about it use the link above reference page 11.
If the third world would teach their poor not to sleep in chiken crap I think all will be well.
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