Posted on 04/24/2006 1:21:27 PM PDT by John Geyer
After receiving local and national publicity as one of several Iraq war veterans running for Congress this year, North Carolina Democrat Tim Dunn in late March suddenly dropped his challenge to 8th District Republican Rep. Robin Hayes.
Dunn’s unexpected move was a boost for fellow Democrat Larry Kissell, a social studies teacher who in an instant went from little-noticed longshot to front-runner for the party’s nomination. Fundraising accelerated. Consultants and a pollster were hired. A media strategy was crafted.
But Dunn’s dropout was even better news for Hayes, whose chances for winning a fifth term in the potentially competitive 8th District greatly improved. With Kissell still unproven as a candidate and lacking the publicity draw of Dunn’s service in Iraq, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Republican Favored from Leans Republican.
That rating means Hayes now appears very likely to win in November — though it does not completely rule out an upset if Democrats get some big breaks over the final six months of the campaign.
“This pretty well takes this district off the competitive rankings,” said Eric Heberlig, a political science professor at University of North Carolina-Charlotte.
If so, it will mark yet another round of frustration for Democratic strategists in a district where they insist Hayes should be vulnerable. District voters favored President Bush in 2004 with a modest 54 percent of the vote — his lowest share in any of the nine North Carolina districts he carried en route to winning the state as a whole. Democrat Michael F. Easley won the district’s vote in his successful 2004 bid for a second term as governor.
Yet Democratic recruiting problems helped Hayes win re-election by comfortable, though not overwhelming, margins of 9 percentage points in 2002 and 11 points in 2004.
Despite the early buzz about Dunn’s campaign, it had become apparent by March that the lawyer and Marine Corps Reserve lieutenant would not be the one to break that trend. Dunn’s latest campaign finance report showed just how much he struggled: After raising about $90,000, Dunn’s campaign owed more than $4,500 in debts as of March 31.
“Democratic strategists knew to win the 8th District that everything would have to break right,” said Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina’s flagship campus in Chapel Hill. “Dunn’s withdrawal is one of those things that didn’t break right.”
Dunn — whose name remains on the May 2 primary ballot because he pulled out after the filing deadline — has endorsed Kissell, whose fully staffed campaign makes him the strongest of the three remaining Democratic candidates. Kissell’s active primary opponents are Mark Ortiz, an unsuccessful 2004 House primary contender, and John Autry, a producer of training videos and business presentations.
The Democratic nominee in the 8th would have to raise significant money and secure interest among voters before the national Democratic Party and allied interest groups would lend support, Heberlig said.
Hayes would be a difficult opponent for even the strongest Democratic candidate. He combines personal wealth as a textile heir with an amiable personality that gives him a solid rapport with many voters — including even a number who have lost jobs as the district’s long vital textile industry has faded.
He also has strong fundraising skills, having collected nearly $1.3 million for his campaign by March, with a whopping $1 million left in cash. In February, first lady Laura Bush helped him raise money in Charlotte.
Kissell, as of March 31, had raised a meager $93,000 — $10,000 of that from his personal accounts — with $45,000 left in cash.
But Kissell aides and other Democrats contend that he shouldn’t be judged on the March 31 figures, as he had emerged as the almost-certain Democratic nominee upon Dunn’s withdrawal just 10 days earlier. Ben Chao, a Kissell campaign spokesman, said most of the candidate’s funds had come in during the past few weeks.
Kissell has started to draw attention of political action committees, including those associated with labor unions. His latest FEC filing showed a $5,000 donation from the National Education Association’s PAC, and Chao said the campaign had a pledge from the United Steelworkers of America’s PAC.
“The momentum of this campaign is just getting off the ground,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Adrienne Elrod. “He will without a doubt present a strong challenge to Robin Hayes.”
Chao said Kissell concedes that Hayes will outspend him, but is aiming to raise enough to get his message out. The campaign also has a strategy to target Democrats and unaffiliated voters in key counties where they believe Hayes’ previous Democratic challengers underperformed.
They also are betting that voters are still angry over Hayes’ dramatic reversal on passing the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) last year. Hayes had vehemently declared himself against the CAFTA agreement, but GOP leaders persuaded him to switch from a “no” vote to a “yes” after he extracted what he described as concessions favorable to the 8th District.
Though he has diversified his message, Kissell continues to focus on the economic damage he says CAFTA and other trade deals inflicted on North Carolina. The campaign highlights Kissell’s story of losing his own factory job when a major local hosiery plant closed.
But Hayes has been aggressive in explaining his vote to his constituents. His efforts to gain assistance for displaced workers have been widely noted.
Campaign spokeswoman Carolyn Hern said Dunn’s withdrawal has not changed Hayes’ approach, which she said continues to be constituent-oriented. Hayes spent this week, while Congress was in recess, holding events to assist senior citizens in signing up for the new Medicare prescription drug benefit before the May 15 enrollment deadline.
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NCbump
NC Reminder *Ping* - Old news, but still relevant since Dunn's name has NOT been removed from the ballot.Freepmail.
Um, you misspelled his name.
This is great news, especially in light of Hayes' flip-flop on the trade agreement.
Sorry, sometimes it's Robyn, sometimes its Robin. I forgot which one was right.
I went to his website, sounded like his campaign was broke and it was making him broke.
So that Dem stragedy of getting Iraq vets to run is working like gangbusters...
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