Outbreak: Could it happen here?

dateline.msnbc.com ^ | 4/23/06 | By Ann Curry

[Lady GOP]

Pick up a newspaper, turn on the TV and it’s there: the news about avian flu.

It can be alarming sometimes, often confusing. And nearly everyone has the same question: Could it happen here?

In 1996, a new and particularly deadly strain of avian flu was found in a goose in China. It was found a year later in Hong Kong and six people died from the virus. They were the first known human cases.

[ansel12]

Since the Avian Flu question seems to reach the public in a rational, calm way, without the baggage of say, surviving a nuclear detonation.

I would like to see the government piggy back on Katrina by using these Avian flu concerns, to gradually shape the publics perception of preparation for survival as a mainstream, responsible thing to do.

I believe the acceptance of a new attitude, of each individual and family being prepared for interruptions in the delivery of food, utilities, and entertainment would strengthen us as a people, and lessen the effects of future terror attacks and natural catastrophes.

Beyond the practical effects of being prepared (and learning how to do that), I think it would have a positive effect on the nations personality.

[NavyCanDo]

This made me laugh - last night I saw the promo for an upcoming made-for-TV movie about the outbreak of Avian Flu on our shores. Looked to be nearly a carbon copy of the movie "Outbreak", except instead of Ebola, it's the Avian Flu causing the national panic. One clip from the movie said there were 30 million dead.

What lunatic writes this garbage? Pure fantasy, but sadly to many uniformed people will fall for it and join the multitudes demanding the Government protect them.

[Sam's Army]

"We're all gonna die" ping

[blam]

"Did you see this show last night? I missed it."

No, I didn't see it...missed it also. It's okay, I'm locked and loaded...prepared in every way I can.

[Gabz]

Pure fantasy, but sadly to many uniformed people will fall for it and join the multitudes demanding the Government protect them.

I don't want government to protect me, but when one's closest neighbors are 170,000 chickens, one pays close attention to what is going on.

I have been following the poultry industry in regard to AF for some 20 years on DelMarVA. The public/private sector cooperation in regard to an outbreak is pretty amazing.

I'm not a scientist, nor do I have any financial interest in the poultry industry - I'm just fascinated with how outbreaks of the disease are handled in the region I live..........I also like to eat chicken!!!!

[Warhammer]

So are you contending that our food is safer due to confinement operations?

[Bean Counter]

I am saying that our poultry is safer than Asia's, because the ranchers in this Country who are raising chickens, turkies and other livestock are smart folks that use every method available to protect the substantial investment they have in feeding the Country.

I am also saying that I trust thier judgement on these matters far above what anyone in the MSM says.

"Confinement Operations"???

[Gabz]

I did not see the MSNBC program and so can't comment, but I am inclined to agree with you that here in the US such an outbreak will most likely not be of similar proportion to the 1918 Spanish Flu.

However, with that said, the economic ramifications of an outbreak of Avian Flu can and most likely will reach catastophic proportion to the poultry industry. One bird testing positive leads to the destruction of an entire flock. The 5 chicken house across the road from me currently house 170,000 chickens, those house only represent a third of the stock that one particular farmer has..........and there are hundreds just like him in this tri-state region.

[blam]

""...thousands of mild and asymptomatic cases are going undetected as detailed by Dick Thompson, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization (WHO)."

Bird Flu: This Thing Continues To March. . .

"The mortality rate so far for this virus is around 55 percent, so this virus would have to attenuate a lot to get down to that level. And we do have good data. There are not a lot of mild, asymptomatic infections out there [with H5N1]. We're now aware of six studies involving over 5,000 close contacts of H5N1-infected people, in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Hong Kong, in which less than one person per thousand contacts had evidence of an H5N1 infection that was missed—that is, a mild infection."

"This [virus] is not causing a lot of asymptomatic infections right now. Some people are saying there's a lot of mild [H5N1-related] illness all over out there, but it's just not true. That means we're not artificially inflating the mortality rate by missing a lot of infections. I'm actually pretty confident that the real mortality is almost that high"

[Calpernia]

>>>>The biggest thing that protects the US by default is that our domestic poultry industry has been raising birds for years in almost complete isolation from outside contamination from diseases that are known to be spread by migrating flocks of wild birds. You cannot even drive onto the property of a commercial chicken farm without having your car, and shoes decontaminated, but you'll also be donning a protective suit; to protect the birds from what you might be bringing in to them

AND yet....


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1618633/posts
U.S. to Allow China Processed Poultry In

[Bean Counter]

I understand you concern, and I think that those 170,000 chickens are a lot safer from avian flu than you may realize. It's certainly something to be concerned about, and I would suggest that you may want to go and talk to the owner, and see if he can show you what he's doing to prevent infecting his flocks. It might be reassuring, and a good opportunity for you to see first hand what the real deal is, and let all of us know what you find. I'd be very interested to hear what you find out.

If I had 170,000 chickens living across the road from me, I think I would pay them a neighborly visit...

[blam]

"However, with that said, the economic ramifications of an outbreak of Avian Flu can and most likely will reach catastophic proportion to the poultry industry. One bird testing positive leads to the destruction of an entire flock. The 5 chicken house across the road from me currently house 170,000 chickens, those house only represent a third of the stock that one particular farmer has..........and there are hundreds just like him in this tri-state region."

I think we're dealing with two issues here:

#1 Is the issue of what will become of the poultry as a food source and will we lose it due to their death from Bird Flu. We are presently no more in jeapordy of getting the Bird Flu than other people through-out the world where it is already endemic.The number of deaths of flu transmission from birds to humans is very low, about 100 worldwide.

#2 I don't think we are to worried about each of us getting the Bird Flu by coming in contact with chicken or other birds. Our worry (human), is getting it from each other when it mutates and becomes H2H. That is the point where we should be seriously worried.

[Lady GOP]

gradually shape the publics perception of preparation for survival as a mainstream, responsible thing to do.

This is exactly what they are trying to do. Unfortunately it seems not many are listening. They said it is impossible for the Fed gov to respond to outbreaks of this flu in 5000 cities at once and communities need to care for their own.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

This "scare" hasn't effected my egg sales at all. I'll take it seriously when people stop buying my eggs.

I saw the show last night; DH lives to watch shows with an "end of the world" bent and found it relatively well balanced (amazing for NBC/MSM) and pretty logical on how the disease can spread. It reminded me completely of that old movie "Outbreak." I mean, it was almost step-by-step.

Will it be too late when they find that first human to human transmission? I don't see this as wiping out swaths of the USA, but it's good to at least have an idea of what's going on.

Calpernia? Any tie-in with making Bird Flu a Big Media Deal and NAIS? "State of Fear" stuff? Probably. ;)

[Calpernia]

>>>>Any tie-in with making Bird Flu a Big Media Deal and NAIS?

The Avian Flu and Mad Cow are always the diseases that come up in the NAIS push.

But my post 30 moots that argument!

[Lady GOP]

Noone really knows what will happen but they are really trying to prepare people for the worst because if ONE case comes this country panic will hit.

Have to disagree with the reporting. Am actually starting to believe some of these women journalists are far superior to the dried up, old, stale girly men, journalists. No independent thought process there whatsoever. Couldnt identify an important concept if it bit them on the....

[ansel12]

"This is exactly what they are trying to do"

I think they are too.

When that government head revealed a few weeks ago that he was preparing his family for 3 months of self-sufficiency a lot of people thought it was an odd statement.

I thought that maybe it was part of a larger administration plan to gradually remove the stigma from general preparedness.

[FBD]

More fear mongering by Dr. Michael Osterholm here:

'Living Terrors: What America Needs to Know to Survive the Coming Bioterrorist Catastrophe'

Follow the money, FRiend:

[Lady GOP]

government head revealed a few weeks ago that he was preparing his family for 3 months of self-sufficiency

Thats nice because they told us to prepare for 2 WEEKS!

[Gabz]

Believe me, I'm well aware of the precautions taken over there. The husband of a friend of mine is the manager. One of my husband's co-workers (he works for IBM) recently bought a chicken farm in Delaware. IBM has contracts with Perdue and so my husband has also learned first hand of the precautins taken at the processing plants and the hatcheries.


I've been familiar with the precautions taken by the farmers, the industry and the states for many years. when I first moved ot Delaware in 1982 the only thing I knew about the poultry industry was I bought chicken in the grocery store....LOL!!!

But it is major business in this area and because I was a reporter, both in Delaware and on Maryland's Eastern Shore, I had no choice, but to learn about it. I'm long out of that business, but never lost my interest in the poultry industry.

I've written extensively on the various Avian Flu threads about the precautions taken by both the public and private sectors in this area. I'm very impressed with it....the cooperation at all levels is totally unreal.