While I generally share your skepticism of polls so far out, I don't in this case. We already know that jockeying for the Presidency begins a long way out from 2008. The whispers among Dems have already started that "she can't win" because of her high negatives. We saw similar things with Janet Reno and Howard Dean, albeit both during shorter time spans. Will it be enough to torpedo her? I don't know. But I am by no means convinced Ms. Clinton will even be able to win her party's primary, much less get 270 electoral votes.
I do wish I had the same belief. IMO, the only way she'll not make the Dem Canidacy is if Bill were to pass on long before. He still had quite a few strings to pull on her behalf, and a lot of his loyal people would fall away were he no longer there.
I think Hillary as the Dem nominee is the Republicans' best chance to win in 2008. I'm not saying it would be easy - it won't be. But I believe she is beatable, even if the GOP is in a weakened state. If the Democrats suddenly get smart and nominate someone like a Mark Warner or Tom Vilsack or Evan Bayh or Bill Richardson (someone who can credibly act the part of a moderate), then I think the GOP would be facing a really uphill climb.
I think it is likely that Hillary will win the nomination. She will have such a huge edge in early fundraising, that by the time the rest of the field is winnowed down to one clear anti-Hillary alternative, she'll still have the New York and Illinois and California primaries ahead of her, where she'll clean up. She'll also have the edge with the superdelegates. Unless she falters early on, or unless another Democrat catches fire and emerges as the alternative before the early primaries are over, I expect her to win.
The 2008 presidential campaign starts the day after the 2006 midterms. That's still a long way off in politcal time, but these negative numbers for Hillary have to be of concern to her.
This -- not issues -- is exactly the kind of sentiment that drives the results of presidential elections.
If her approval numbers remain low, she can still win by getting a Republican to play the role Perot played in 1992. Or the Republicans may cut themselves up in the primaries and/or wind up with a lackluster candidate.
It's too soon to dismiss Hillary's chances. Of course, if someone else is the Democratic nominee, that person is likely to be just as bad.