I think Hillary as the Dem nominee is the Republicans' best chance to win in 2008. I'm not saying it would be easy - it won't be. But I believe she is beatable, even if the GOP is in a weakened state. If the Democrats suddenly get smart and nominate someone like a Mark Warner or Tom Vilsack or Evan Bayh or Bill Richardson (someone who can credibly act the part of a moderate), then I think the GOP would be facing a really uphill climb.
I think it is likely that Hillary will win the nomination. She will have such a huge edge in early fundraising, that by the time the rest of the field is winnowed down to one clear anti-Hillary alternative, she'll still have the New York and Illinois and California primaries ahead of her, where she'll clean up. She'll also have the edge with the superdelegates. Unless she falters early on, or unless another Democrat catches fire and emerges as the alternative before the early primaries are over, I expect her to win.
Unless she falters early on, or unless another Democrat catches fire and emerges as the alternative before the early primaries are over, I expect her to win.
But keep in mind that is exactly what happened in '04. I remember laughing at Kerry's campaign when he had to loan himself money, saying something like "he may not be toast, but the bread's gettin' warm." But what propelled him back into contention and the nomination was the perception that Howard couldn't win. It was helped along by the scream (Yeeeaaaggghhh!!), but the momentum was already there.
She also has a big advantage the way the DemonRats are arranging the early primaries so there will be a number of large states having their primaries at the same time as the Iowa caucuses and the N. H. primary. That's likely to allow the Witch to pick up a great deal of DemonRat momentum without being subjected to any serious scrutiny.
Richardson is the only one of those with a chance and is the most formidable of the Party of Treason. The rest are unknowns to the unwashed masses.