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Seven in 10 Consumers Expect Housing Bubble to Burst
Gallop Poll ^ | 4/19/2006 | Dennis Jacobe

Posted on 04/19/2006 9:58:59 PM PDT by ex-Texan

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that single-family housing starts fell 12% last month. Privately owned housing starts fell 7.8% to the lowest level since March 2005, while new building permits fell 5.5%. * * * Labor Department reported that wholesale prices rose 0.5% last month as oil and gasoline prices are approaching new record highs. * * *

New findings from the April Experian/Gallup Personal Credit Index survey suggest that many Americans believe [the housing bubble may burst] * * *

National Housing Bubble

Seventy-one percent of consumers believe it is very likely (24%) or somewhat likely (47%) that housing prices will collapse in housing markets across the nation as a whole within the next year, according to the April Experian/Gallup Personal Credit Index survey. * * *

Housing has been one of the key drivers of economic activity in the United States over the past several years. Building new homes not only creates jobs but also stimulates the purchase of a variety of consumer durables including appliances and home furnishings. More importantly, the growth of housing equity has had a pronounced wealth effect not only on consumer spending, but also on consumer borrowing.

Currently, the housing sector is under assault from the double-whammy of increasing interest rates and surging energy prices. * * *

The most significant impact, however, may involve the effect of a housing slowdown on the overall U.S. economy. A significant economic slowdown during the second half of this year could lay bare many of the housing finance excesses of the past several years. In turn, this could make the pessimism 7 in 10 consumers have about the potential for a bursting of the housing bubble seem prescient later this year.

View Gallop Poll Data and Graphs:

(Excerpt) Read more at poll.gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: bubbles; buymoregold; consumerviews; extexaniswilliegreen; housing; housingbubble; realestate; theskyisfalling
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To: ex-Texan
"Seven in 10 Consumers Expect Housing Bubble to Burst"

How about Seven in 10 Consumers Believe Anything They Read in the Newspaper!"

61 posted on 04/20/2006 6:33:06 AM PDT by Joe Brower (The Constitution defines Conservatism. *NRA*)
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To: RegulatorCountry

In all fairness may I ask if you are in any aspect of the real-estate trade, from selling houses, flipping, construction firm, banking or any type of a housing supplier (copper, lumber, glass, paint, zinc, nickel, nails, etc, etc) ?


62 posted on 04/20/2006 6:41:26 AM PDT by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: ex-Texan
The same people saying the housing boom will continue even if oil prices hit $100 ignore reports of the beginning of the slow down on a world-wide basis.

When oil was $30 the same types would state it will never hit $50. Where are they now? These people were also those which never traded a drop of oil in their life, yet they were experts on international energy trending & supply.

Danger signals still dog (UK) housing market.

Bubble Talk: Why Consumers Fear Collapse

Is the US housing bubble close to collapse?

63 posted on 04/20/2006 6:55:21 AM PDT by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: Dr. Frank fan

"They can sell to me, for example. I'll bid. Maybe not as high as they'd like, but hey, with the bubble about to burst and everything, how could they possibly turn me down?"

Ok, make an offer on my home. I live in NJ and property taxes are over 10k on my 1/2 acre piece of property with a 3200 sqf house on it.


64 posted on 04/20/2006 6:58:04 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (To Serve Man......It's a cookbook!)
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To: Joe Brower
Do you believe these charts?

It maybe warm to hot now - but heating oil season comes around sooner then one thinks.

65 posted on 04/20/2006 7:01:34 AM PDT by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: M. Espinola
I'm sure the charts are accurate unto themselves. But I must confess that I don't fully understand what they mean. And as usual, they probably mean more than one thing, depending on one's POV. The world is frustrating that way. I would appreciate an explanation, or a link to one, so as to fully grok the meaning. < G!>

Being in Florida in any case, heating oil is not something on my shopping list. $:-)

66 posted on 04/20/2006 7:05:33 AM PDT by Joe Brower (The Constitution defines Conservatism. *NRA*)
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To: bkepley
Why should I sell? I kind of like my house and I hate to move.

I only said one should sell if one believes there's a "bubble" about to "burst". I have no idea whether that's what you believe.

67 posted on 04/20/2006 7:07:46 AM PDT by Dr. Frank fan
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To: ex-Texan
It's true in New Jersey.

In your better communities and developments, prices are dropping. We held off doing an upgrade last year. This year, we've had a few Realtors practically beg us to take a second look at homes that dropped 20-30K since they were first listed 2 months ago. Yeah, the owners are feeling the squeeze. When you've got your house up for sale and it's not moving ... you've got to start thinking about dropping the price.

Any honest Realtor in New Jersey that deals with the desirable homes will tell you - things are SLOW offers are way below list price. Last year there was still a frenzy but it tappered off at the end of the season.

It's really a cylindrical thing. I've been told every five years or so things heat up. Now they're leveling off to more realistic market value.

68 posted on 04/20/2006 7:13:54 AM PDT by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God) !)
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To: ex-Texan; All

The beauty with the bubble, is that people in Blue cities will most likely get hit the hardest.

Boston, Chicago, San Fran,Seattle and Portland. Oh well.

I suppose after losing 30% of their home value, they'll be tighter when it comes to funding liberal candidates.


69 posted on 04/20/2006 7:27:54 AM PDT by proudpapa (of three.)
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To: EQAndyBuzz
Ok, make an offer on my home. I live in NJ and property taxes are over 10k on my 1/2 acre piece of property with a 3200 sqf house on it.

I'd have to research your local market to come up with a good price, but as a guesstimate how about (ballpark) 50% of its current value.

You should take it and run, if there's a (gasp) BUBBLE!

70 posted on 04/20/2006 7:29:49 AM PDT by Dr. Frank fan
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To: Joe Brower
"Being in Florida in any case, heating oil is not something on my shopping list. $:-)"

You got me there - lol

My concern is pertol-fueled-inflation will increase the price of general consumer goods even further.

Check this original source for that chart, and if you have any questions just ask.

Chart link

Being in the area which produces the world's second largest crop of juice oranges (Brazil is #1). The chart below will most likely head higher with the coming hurricane season.

OJ

71 posted on 04/20/2006 7:38:45 AM PDT by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: M. Espinola
"My concern is pertol-fueled-inflation will increase the price of general consumer goods even further."

Yes, I have seen and thought about that as well. There is another article on FR that deals with that exact subject:

GM says oil price rise ripples through supply chain

72 posted on 04/20/2006 7:46:39 AM PDT by Joe Brower (The Constitution defines Conservatism. *NRA*)
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To: ex-Texan

"Just keep repeating to yourself over and over again:
"There is no housing bubble."

I am selling a home in a Charleston SC suburb. Last year the areas homes were selling 10% less than today but in a matter of days from being listed.

We accepted a bid after 4 weeks on the market and $2k less than we listed. I am quite happy with the process so far. My only concern is in the long wait till an early June closing. That gets us into the summer storm season.

When this is complete, we are selling our primary residence in Maine (and fleeing the high taxes). We will be lucky if we get this place on the market before the end of July. While prices have not fallen here, sales have slowed to the point that sales take months, sometimes many. I will be amazed if we get what we ask or if it sells much before Christmas.


73 posted on 04/20/2006 8:40:43 AM PDT by Jim Verdolini (We had it all, but the RINOs stalked the land and everything they touched was as dung and ashes!)
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To: ex-Texan
Seventy-one percent of consumers believe it is very likely (24%) or somewhat likely (47%) that housing prices will collapse in housing markets across the nation as a whole within the next year, according to the April Experian/Gallup Personal Credit Index survey. * * *

Well of COURSE they do. That's all they've been hearing on the news for the last year or so, what else would they think?

74 posted on 04/20/2006 8:42:27 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: EQAndyBuzz
"Ok, make an offer on my home. I live in NJ and property taxes are over 10k on my 1/2 acre piece of property with a 3200 sqf house on it. "

Yeah, all house and little property!

I'm not ridiculing you ... we're looking to upgrade. The property taxes in Raritan TWSP are atrocious 3.21. Over 10K is NOT unusual.

There's no telling what Corzine will do with property taxes. I know where we live they are looking to adjust ALL property taxes to their proper "market value". That's scary - "market value" is VERY subjective. Where we live this will be done bu August.

We've narrowed our preferences down to a few good areas. We look closely at the current property tax rate. It's becoming ridiculous in New Jersey. They get you either way - land or building assessment - it's just that some areas are worse than others.
75 posted on 04/20/2006 8:53:06 AM PDT by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God) !)
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To: Dr. Frank fan

"I only said one should sell if one believes there's a "bubble" about to "burst". I have no idea whether that's what you believe."

Ok..say I believe it. Why should I sell? I like my house and hate to move.


76 posted on 04/20/2006 9:01:50 AM PDT by bkepley
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To: nmh

I'm in East Brunswick. The schools are good, churches and temples are in waslking distance and it is one stop to the city by bus.

However, I am not too thrilled with Corzine and I have a feeling that it is going to get worse and quick. I already have the house up for sale and am putting a contingency down in San Antonio.


77 posted on 04/20/2006 9:15:23 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (To Serve Man......It's a cookbook!)
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To: ReyDM

I had to look at where you live - Georgia... I guess you could have excess inventory there. Here in the OC, I doubt that will occur. Prices may make a correction (some have gotten rather ridiculous), but I don't think things will crash as some here are hope-a-hope-a-hoping!


78 posted on 04/20/2006 9:31:14 AM PDT by antceecee (Hey AG Gonzales! ENFORCE IMMIGRATION LAWS NOW!!!)
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To: M. Espinola

"In all fairness may I ask if you are in any aspect of the real-estate trade"

No, I am not. I do own two houses, in NC, that I do not plan on selling at any point in the near future. You may want to query the originator of this thread, as to just how one benefits from myriad posts over a period of years, if you're looking for an agenda. I understand blogging can be a pretty good sideline, assuming one drives enough "hits" to it, now that Google Ads has come along.


79 posted on 04/20/2006 9:39:26 AM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry

In terms of the originator of this thread, are you saying he is in the real-estate market?


80 posted on 04/20/2006 10:24:21 AM PDT by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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