Posted on 04/18/2006 10:13:22 AM PDT by strategofr
Although I doubt anyone will believe what I have to say, I nonetheless feel compelled to present my Passover, 2006 analysis of the US and world situation.
People familiar with me know that I believe the Russians covertly control many leftist organizations throughout the world. I have partially detailed my thinking on this in previous posts and will not reiterate much background here.
I have been puzzled for quite some time about many events occurring over the past year. Most puzzling perhaps is the behavior of Iran.
First, let me give a little background about Iran and nuclear weapons. Iran has been building a broad-based infrastructure for a nuclear weapons industry for more than 20 years. They started not too long after they deposed the Shah. They realized that they were in opposition to the United States and its tremendous power and wanted to have nuclear weapons to deter a US attempt to overthrow their government. (Aside from things obviously deriving from recent news reports, the bulk of my information here referring to Iran's relationship to nuclear weapons and missiles and the Iranian relationship to Russia comes from the book Iran's Nuclear Option, by Al J. Venter, 2005.)
This Iranian preparation has included sending Iranian students abroad to study all aspects of nuclear technology, including centrifuge technology, reactor technology, etc. As the Iranian students became educated, they set up university programs inside Iran---programs that have now become quite broad and extensive. Over this period of time, Iran has been moving toward developing nuclear and missile capabilities in more concrete ways as well.
However, for many years I believe they were severely limited by a lack of strong foreign help. They were deadly enemies of Iraq--- a Russian client. By 1997, Russia had clearly decided to start helping Iran actively--- presumably because Iraq had become so weakened due to US actions. Russian help has included the provision of missile technology and the building of nuclear reactors. By Iran now has the capability of sending missiles far into Europe, presumably utilizing primarily Russian technology--- if not simply Russian rockets that have been repainted. Iranian progress toward nuclear bombs also seems well advanced--- Though their exact stage of development is uncertain.
Nonetheless, their behavior in the past year has been puzzling. If they are indeed close to the attainment of both nuclear weapons and long-range missiles to deliver them, this should be a time of relative quiet for Iran on the issue. Theoretically, the Europeans and the UN were trying to prevent them from attaining a weapon, but they were quite content to be quietly failing in this effort. The U. S., preoccupied in Iraq, was willingly participating in the charade. The brief period of time just before attaining nuclear weapons and ICBMs is not the time to draw attention to one's self. It is a time when in danger looms for others, but you yourself are still helpless. Why make a fuss at such a moment?
Yet, the Iranians have forced themselves onto center stage with a series of bellicose nuclear threats. We must note the similarity between their behavior and the recent behavior of North Korea in regards to nuclear weapons. North Korea is such a complete puppet of China that the prospect of their acting independently is ludicrous to me. Clearly, the North Korean actions were designed (by the Chinese) to distract the United States--- probably from its focus on Iraq (as a favor to the Chinese buddies, the Russians, who are big players there). In regards to North Korea, you have to realize that in the beginning of the Korean War, the U.S. Army destroyed the North Korean army and occupied all but a few square miles of North Korea. Their country ceased to exist. It was reconstituted entirely and only by the Chinese military. Anyone who believes that the Chinese would somehow allow North Korea to "slip away" from their control simply knows nothing about Communist China. In any case, the North Korean tempest in a teapot somehow subsided.
But it was replaced by an identical one in Iran. Freeper SouthHack seemed surely to be on the right track with his analogy between the Iranians and the rodeo clown. The Iranian actions had to be a distraction--- but from what? SouthHack's idea that the Iranian's were trying to distract people from Hezbollah was not convincing to me.
Inside the U. S., odd things were happening as well. Here, people who do not know me must simply realize that I believe the Russians essentially control the American Left. A short while ago, there was an attempt to have anti-Iraq war demonstrations throughout the country. This attempt fizzled so completely, many of you probably never heard about it. Understanding the structure of the Left as I do, this event puzzled me. Of course, conservatives in general were delighted by this non-event. They took it as evidence that support for the Iraq war inside the US was solid.
Then of course, came the Pro-illegal Immigration Rallies. These have been a massive success. Oddly, these rallies have been set up by the same exact groups that always set up all antiwar rallies, the group of organizations we conservatives generally refer to as "the Communists".
Meanwhile, Iraq has moved into an odd state. They've had an election but are unable to form a government. Like most Americans, I'm fairly ignorant about parliamentary systems. However, it seems to me that this has happened in other parliamentary countries. I believe the usual remedy is to have another election quickly. Obviously, no one is eager to try this in Iraq.
I would describe the current situation in Iraq as a "slow boil". Slowly, the relatively weak elements that make up civil society are dissolving under the pressure of continual murders of groups of people on both sides (Sunni and Shi'ite). Yet, nothing "blows". I believe the Russians now hold most of the cards in Iraq. True, the U. S. Armed Forces control the country in a military sense. But everyone in Iraq knows that the U. S. Armed Forces will not be in Iraq for a very long time.
The Russians set up Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq. They set up his Secret Service, his network of spies, etc. In the relative chaos that has existed since the US occupation began, the Russians have no doubt reestablished their control over many elements inside the Sunni community. The Iranians, on the other hand, have gained a significant amount of control over the Shi'ite community. Both Allawi (who I respect above all other persons inside Iraq) and Debka Files (which I have found to be a relatively reliable source of information despite nearly everyone's opinion to the contrary) believe that the Iranians heavily influenced the most recent Iraqi election--- including the widespread use of intimidation and fraud. It appears the Iranian influence among the elected legislators is very great. But Iran is now a client of Russia. So, Russia is holding most of the key cards in Iraq today.
What then, is Russia's goal, as evidenced over the course of the past year? I believe the KGB, upon a aceeding to power in Russia, did not change their main focus or the focus of the Russian government. I believe their number one goal is the destruction of the country Lenin described as the "main enemy"--- the United States.
Currently, their best way to advance in this regard is to help elect Hillary Clinton--- a lifelong Marxist and servant of Russia--- as President.
The best way to do this would be to convulse Iraq in a violent civil war starting in about September or October, 2008. This requires two things--- the ability to initiate such a civil war, and the ability to retard its outbreak until the right time. There is also one other crucial element in the equation--- the U. S. forces must not withdraw from Iraq before that time.
With apologies for jumping a bit here, I must briefly attend to the 2006 elections. I believe the Democrats need to show as weakly as possible and 2006 (to optimize the chance for Hillary's election). Certainly, this theory is completely consistent with their recent actions to date. Although conservatives to light in concluding that Democratic activity has been the result of mental disorders, I do not believe this is the case.
The fact is, the Democrats have absolutely nothing to offer the American people at this time. A strong Democratic showing in the 2006 election would spotlight this reality for the American people. This would tend to create a counter-reaction in 2008, and reduce Hillary's chances of being elected. Hence, I believe the Democratic goal in 2006 (guided by their Russian big brothers), is to not show very strong against the Republicans. As we inside the Republican Party know, this will take some doing.
I believe the Russians have the world in almost exactly the place they it want to be in September- October 2008. Their biggest problem right now is that it is not September 2008 but April 2006. What the Russians need to do over the next two and half years is put the world on hold, to freeze time --- an extremely difficult thing.
Now, I will move towards drawing together the various threads I have created. The failed demonstrations on the Iraq war were a communication from the Russian masters of the American to Left to the sometimes disparate elements of the American Left--- quell the anti-Iraq energy. The time is not yet right to maximize American sentiment against the Iraq war.
The massive and massively successful demonstrations in favor of the illegal immigrants were designed to distract the country from the Iraq war at this time. The American military, no doubt spurred by the administration, has developed a tremendous momentum in the direction of getting out of Iraq. The Russians want to be careful to not have the American Left do anything to accelerate this at this time. In addition, the lack of a government in Iraq obviously makes the prospect of America withdrawing completely extremely embarrassing and difficult to actually do.
The Iranian nuclear publicity is also designed to divide the attention of the Americans on every level--- from ordinary citizens and voters--- up through the military planners--- and into the White House. In general, divided attention makes it more difficult to focus on Iraq and solve problems there. In addition, the Iranian situation is generally demoralizing to Americans.
Well, that's pretty much it.
Putin=unrepentant communist
And Russia and china continue to prepare for war....
If a Democrat does not win in '08, things will start to go really haywire in 2009.
IMHO, the Iranians/Ruskies would love to sucker us into Iran...I beleive a large nulear annihilation of our conventional forces would ensue. In October of 2008 no american leader will have the cajones then to pull the retaliatory nuclear response.
"If a Democrat does not win in '08, things will start to go really haywire in 2009."
Unless the Republican is smart enough to get out really fast.
Good to see you around, Anybody. here's another site to consider:
http://www.discoverthenetwork.org/
Please excuse me now, while my head explodes............
"Thank you for the link.
Please excuse me now, while my head explodes............"
LOL!
""If a Democrat does not win in '08, things will start to go really haywire in 2009."
Unless the Republican is smart enough to get out really fast."
My statement was ridiculous. I retract it. You are correct.
ping
I have referenced you in this analysis of mine, but unfortunately misspelled your name by capitalizing the H. Anyhow, I wanted you to know I referenced you.
Unless of course the timetable is a bit ahead of your estimate and Iran has the Nukes they need. The goal may be to get the US to mass its troops for an Iranian nuclear first strike. Who then could guard the barn?
There is a new version of the Black Panthers, can't recall the exact name. they have formed to get justice over this Duke thing, with the team, it's not rugby but, you know, the fake rape.
That got some audio on this guy, and it is a simple provocation. In so many words, by his tone and the implications in between the words---he is threatening violence toward every white person who hears him if they do not deliver a conviction on this rape case---a case that is false on the face of it.
Excuse me, but the Black Panthers were communist in the 1960s and their communist now. This guy is delivering the same message that the Hispanic guys are delivering and the same message that bin Laden is delivering.
There is no question that the intended effect is psychological---and that it is cumulative---as well is designed to create confusion and frustration.
To exit from my Ping list, just send me one request to that effect, public or private.
To me, this just (below) looks like more of the same stuff---they are trying to whip up Americans into a level of hysteria.
The more it goes on, the more confident I feel about my basic idea---the two keys are Iraq and Hillary's 2008 election prospects. what they desperately seem to need to do in my opinion, is to draw us into one or more other conflicts---and paralyze our ability to work through the Iraq thing properly.
"In a just concluded debate and press conference, author and FBI Consultant Paul Williams and Jeff Epstein of "America's Truth Forum" reveal they have been advised by Pakistani journalist and Bin Laden biographer Hamid Amir that Al-Qaeda will use smuggled nukes against the US if the US takes military action against Iran.
Amir established his credentials by correctly predicting that Egypt would be hit by terrorist action a full two weeks prior to the events of last week. Amir, a Pakistani journalist, has been in contact with high ranking Al-Qaeda officials for several years.
The debate (between Richard Miniter and Paul Williams) and press conference were webcast LIVE by Rightalk.com. Audio files of both events will be available for downloading by this afternoon."
"Black Panthers. Usefull commie idiots as you have indicated.
America full of em. So many forms, some so subtil others so blatant. Not much one can do to kick out hundreds of thousands of front orgs.."
True. But we don't need to kick them out to win. All we need to do is to maintain our cool. If this were not true, they would not be trying so hard to induce hysteria in us.
"Unless of course the timetable is a bit ahead of your estimate and Iran has the Nukes they need. The goal may be to get the US to mass its troops for an Iranian nuclear first strike. Who then could guard the barn?"
I see your logic, but remember, I see the Iranians as mere pawns of the Russians. Not that the strategy you mention couldn't theoretically work for the Russians as well.
However, I believe the Russians do not want a nuclear exchange between Iran and their enemies. I believe they are willing to risk it---and in a very broad sense, even face a small risk of a nuclear attack on Russia. (A person who has done a lot of study on the system of shelters the Russians have for nuclear weapons and Russian nuclear weapon technology since the breakup of the Soviet Union is JR Nyquist, in his book Origins of the Fourth World War. I don't agree with his conclusion that the Russians are planning a nuclear war, but his information has some relevance.)
I do not believe Russia wants either of these things do happen (use of Iranian nukes or a nuclear attack on Russia). I believe the Russians are playing the Iranian card now to distract America.
Nonetheless, I think your thought is worthwhile. Such a possibility needs to be considered from now on. I imagine our concentration of forces before the Iraq war would have been vulnerable to a nuclear strike.
Of course, if I am right and the Russians are behind it---simply bringing an awareness of this to our government and starting to prove it would change the entire game, wouldn't it? The possibility of the Iranians taking out a large part of the U. S. Army with a few nuclear weapons doesn't sound so good if the US figures out the Russians are behind it.
And really, isn't Russian culpability in the Iranian nuclear capability already established to a reasonable extent? They have been building nuclear reactors and providing the Iranians with missile technology since 1997 (Iran's Nuclear Option, Al J. Venter, Casemate, 2005)
"Putin is to host this year's G-8 Summit and he has declared it to be about "energy security".
One of the largest hindrances to getting Iraq off the ground is its oil production, thus the purpose of terrorism is not only about a supposed "civil war" bloodletting but as much about prevention of their oil production.
Now the Marxist oil producing countries around the world that would include Russia are sure not in opposition in making some extra dollars. Russia did have some major contracts with old Saddam that we caused to become nonexistent. I imagine a whole lot of payback is planned because of that."
Many of our enemies are benefiting from a high price of oil, including Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. I agree that this is an important part of their strategy. Even the Democrats in the US are benefiting politically. It hurts China, but no strategy is perfect.
This acts in concert with Chinese expansion of energy consumption and agressive attempts to control new resources in the petroleum industry via economic means, Chavez' saber rattling and edicts regarding Venezuelan oil, and the possibility that they can maintain this situation through 2008.
The ability to relax demand lies with the Chinese, who are part of the new demand equation, the ability to reduce or even crash energy prices lies there, too, by withdrawing significant portions of that demand. The Russians, if they get on the stick, have the resources to glut supplies, were they effectively in production.
Timing is key in everything, but doing so after some posturing action by a Democrat would make it appear that the Democrat's policy had some magical effect when it was meaningless, and establish in political energy groupthink that there was some (possibly even harmful) action which could be taken to bring energy prices down.
We are in what has become known as 'total warfare', often asymetric, non-military, and economic, in which our enemies will weaken us by any means available.
The Islamists, while seeking their own agenda, are merely a tool of the agenda of that developing Socialist World Order.
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