Toronto Can Live With This PM (Canadian Tories Can Win Parliamentary Majority Without Toronto Alert)

Without winning a single Toronto seat, Prime Minister Stephen Harper could secure a majority in the next election.

Mathematically, the possibility has always been there. Toronto has just 23 of the 308 seats in Parliament.

What wasn't initially clear was whether Harper would try to build a winning coalition without Toronto.

Political insiders at city hall, Queen's Park and on Parliament Hill expect the Prime Minister to make Quebec his top priority. The Conservatives now hold just 10 of the province's 75 seats.

As a secondary thrust, Harper will target ridings his party lost by a sliver — mostly in southwestern Ontario and British Columbia — in the last election.

This doesn't mean he will deliberately snub Torontonians. A national leader gains nothing by looking vindictive. Moreover, it would only hurt those who run under the Tory banner in the city next time.

It simply means Toronto will be an afterthought. The city's needs, plans and aspirations will be peripheral to the national agenda. That was evident in last week's Speech from the Throne.

It was replete with measures designed to appeal to Quebec: The province would get its own role in UNESCO (the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization); it would have "a unique place" in Confederation; its legislators would work in "mutual respect and collaboration" with their federal counterparts; and its complaints about the fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and Quebec would finally be addressed.

There was no mention of affordable housing, public transit or the "new deal for cities" that Toronto has championed for four years.

Just before Harper unveiled his legislative blueprint, a Tory strategist who works for a large lobbying firm advised a business audience in Windsor not to expect the Conservatives to spend much time wooing the urban elite. Harper's strategy, explained Goldy Hyder, would be to concentrate on Quebec and the "Tim Hortons crowd."

There is still no definitive proof that Harper regards Toronto as an expendable Liberal outpost. But the evidence is strong enough to warrant a contingency plan.

Such a strategy should begin with the recognition that Harper is a rational politician. He acts in his government's political interests, not out of malice, pique or blind partisanship. He can be persuaded to shift course, if the benefits clearly outweigh the costs.

He backed down, for instance, on his refusal to allow a parliamentary debate on the Canadian military mission in Afghanistan. He is rethinking his plan to cancel Liberal income tax cuts.

That means any proposition Toronto puts to Harper should offer manifest advantages for the Conservatives.

Next, Toronto should make common cause with as many other cities as possible. Harper may be able to write off Toronto, but he can't ignore the 25 million Canadians who live in urban centres. He may be prepared to overlook Toronto's housing shortage, but he can't shrug off the lack of affordable accommodation in Calgary. In fact, most of Toronto's challenges — aging infrastructure, sprawling suburbs, choked traffic, a trapped underclass — are mirrored to some degree in other cities.

Mayor David Miller is a member of the Big City Mayors Caucus at the Federation of Canadian Municipalities. Anything he could do to raise its profile would be worthwhile. Forging strong personal links with Vancouver Mayor Sam Sullivan, Calgary Mayor David Bronconnier, Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel, Winnipeg Mayor Sam Katz and Montreal Mayor Gérard Tremblay would also be helpful.

Harper has made it clear that he intends to deal with municipalities through their provincial governments, following the letter of the Constitution.

Whether Toronto likes this approach or not, it's going to have to live with it for the next couple of years. That makes it vital to clear any blockages that exist in the pipeline between Queen's Park and city hall. Allowing tiffs and bureaucratic inertia to keep federal money from reaching the city is simply bad management.

However attractive the defeated Liberal government's stance on cities, child care and the environment might seem, the city has to find a way forward under the current regime.

There are several possible avenues. Harper is willing to transfer more resources to the provinces, which would give Queen's Park additional money for municipalities. He appears to be listening to New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton, who understands and speaks for Toronto. And he may want one showpiece — visible progress on the waterfront, for example — to show voters his government can accomplish what the Liberals talked about.

Harper can get along without Toronto. But with enough ingenuity, Toronto can get along with him.

Toronto Alienation is finally sinking in - it'll have to go it alone. As Carol Goar writes, its possible for Canada's Conservative Party to win a parliamentary majority in the House Of Commons in the next election without winning a SINGLE seat in Toronto. It sucks to be on the outs. But Alberta has had to put up with it for the decades. The Canadian Left is discovering the Marginalized Club.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

Conservative victory formula= Rural + Suburban Ontario & British Columbia + Quebec + Tim Horton's crowd. That's 30 more seats in both Ontario and BC and 50 in Quebec. Result? 205 CPC out of 308 in the HOfC.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

Sounds a lot like the GOP strategy in the USA: rural + subruban + exurban + states rights

Yep. They have nowhere to go but up. There are a lot of seats that were narrowly lost in January that can be taken in the next election. The big prize is the Quebec outside Montreal metro.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

Toronto is like the proud peacock that had its feathers plucked and should be in some socialist pot simmering for when the Marxist boys come home to talk philosophy in the evening. But that would be too good! Yes, TO is full of fulfledged idiots, strung out, lookin' for a hand out, for the biggest Socialist and Liberal drug in town -- money! They think Utopia has come to town and its beautiful and Faaaabulous... They are all juvenile, part of the KISS Army, every last one of them, whether they know it or not!

That is the big prize, but not the only prize. There are still about 15-25 more Ontario seats that are definitely winnable, plus there are all the northern seats in the provinces, and about 10 seats in BC, in addition to a few isolated seats elsewhere.

Memo to the party: Forget the Center of the Universe.

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