Zawahiri (al Qaeda #2) videotape surfaces

This article is good as far as it goes, but has five glaring omissions:

1) Zarqawi was *not* building a global network. He ran a global network long before the Iraq war and the insurgency began. They tried dismantling it in 2003 before the Iraq war and it has popped back up like weeds. It will likely do so again because the roots run deep.

2) It mentions many European nations and Canada but says virtually nothing about the U.S. I'd bet money the network here is extensive. When UBL last year authorized Zarqawi to begin preparation for operations inside the United States, it was likely not an empty boast. <<<<

I am in agreement with you.

It appears that we are not to know that there is a danger, the left half of America , they think that it was wrong of us to kill zarqawi, so half of America will fight against a statement from our Gov. saying we are about to get hit.

I would say that of that half, some of them would even go so far as to lay a false trail and take up the important time that the police need for investigation, to stop the attacks.

When I think of the plans the jihadi have developed for us, I recall that many of the al-qaeda leaders have been trained by KGB in Russia, over the years.

Then I think about the Russian Cells, waiting to be called and think the jihadi are doing the same.

To me there is no way of knowing how many there are getting ready to attack us.

I am glad there are people like you, who can see the entire picture.

Thank you, callmejoe. All your points and insights are well taken, as always. We especially need to be reminded of zarqawi's first love and expertise: WMDs. As you so aptly put it: "WMD was his expertise, not beheadings." That is a pretty powerful comment.

I also share your belief that the jihadis will strike in their planned places sooner rather than later if given the opportunity. I fear for Iraq but then again that never changes. And Israel. I always fear for Israel.

Who knows what other nations will share the brunt.

http://go.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=1260796&section=news&src=rss/uk/topNews

New Iraq Qaeda leader vows vengeance -Web
Tue Jun 13, 2006 05:56 PM ET

By Yara Bayoumy

DUBAI (Reuters) - Al Qaeda's new leader in Iraq vowed on Tuesday to avenge the killing of his predecessor Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, saying Americans and their Iraqi allies would not be safe in their strongholds, according to a Web statement.

"The day of vengeance is near and your strong towers in the Green Zone will not protect you," said the statement posted on a Web site often used by Islamist militants and signed by the new leader Abu Hamza al-Muhajir.

The appearance of the Web statement coincided with a surprise visit to Baghdad on Tuesday by U.S. President George W. Bush to try to bolster the Iraqi government days after Zarqawi was killed in a U.S. air strike.

The Green Zone in Baghdad is a heavily fortified compound in Baghdad which houses the headquarters of the Iraqi government, foreign embassies and a U.S. military base.

The authenticity of the statement could not be verified. It would be Muhajir's first public statement since being named the new leader of al Qaeda in Iraq.

"Coming battles will reveal the falseness of your power and the cowardliness of your soldiers," Muhajir said. "Do not rejoice that you killed (Zarqawi), he has left behind lions that ... trained under him.

"You will see what we have in store for you because of your betrayal and apostasy. Our swords are poised above your necks," he told Iraqis who cooperate with U.S.-led forces.

On Monday, the group named the little-known Muhajir to be Zarqawi's successor.

Muhajir also attacked Shi'ites saying he would fight them to death and would "continue what our Sheikh Abu Musab -- God have mercy on him -- began". Zarqawi frequently targeted and denounced Shi'ites and the U.S. military said he hoped to spark a sectarian civil war in Iraq.

Some analysts say Muhajir may be a nom-de-guerre for Egyptian militant Abu Ayyub al-Masri, who trained in Afghanistan, formed al Qaeda's first cell in Baghdad and is sought by the U.S. military as a Zarqawi aide.

Analysts say the tag al-Muhajir (the migrant) shows he is non-Iraqi like Zarqawi, a Jordanian.

Muhajir also addressed part of his statement to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden saying: "We await your signal and follow your orders, and we give you the good tidings that morale is high among your soldiers".

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20050419-102106-5456r.htm

Reports reveal Zarqawi nuclear threat

By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Published April 20, 2005

Recurrent intelligence reports say al Qaeda terrorist Abu Musab Zarqawi has obtained a nuclear device or is preparing a radiological explosive -- or dirty bomb -- for an attack, according to U.S. officials, who also say analysts are unable to gauge the reliability of the information's sources.

The classified reports have been distributed to U.S. intelligence agencies for several consecutive months and say Zarqawi, al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, has stored the nuclear device or dirty bomb in Afghanistan, said officials familiar with the intelligence.

One official said the intelligence is being questioned because analysts think al Qaeda would not hesitate to use a nuclear device if it had one.

However, the fact that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has reported the nuclear threat in several classified reports distributed since December indicates concern about it.

A DIA spokesman had no comment.

The Jordanian-born Zarqawi, who last year formally linked up with Osama bin Laden's terror network, is thought to be operating inside Iraq and has specialized in suicide bombings and large-scale vehicle bombings. He had several close encounters in recent weeks with Iraqi and U.S. forces.

Senior U.S. intelligence and security officials said in congressional testimony in February that a terrorist attack with weapons of mass destruction -- nuclear, chemical or biological arms -- is likely. CIA Director Porter J. Goss said such a terrorist strike "may be only a matter of time."

Dirty bombs are made by mixing radioactive material with conventional explosives.

A report by the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction faulted U.S. intelligence agencies for not understanding al Qaeda's unconventional weapons programs in Afghanistan prior to 2001, when U.S. forces helped oust the Islamist Taliban government.

"There are critical intelligence gaps with regard to each al Qaeda unconventional weapons capability -- chemical, biological and nuclear," said the report, made public March 30.

The commission said bin Laden told a Pakistani newspaper reporter in November 2001 that al Qaeda has both nuclear and chemical weapons. The CIA then "speculated" in a report that the terrorist group "probably had access to nuclear expertise and facilities and that there was a real possibility of the group developing a crude nuclear device," the commission report said.

The commission also said U.S. intelligence agencies think development of a radiological bomb is "well within al Qaeda's capabilities."

The reported threat of nuclear terrorism comes amid other intelligence indicating that Zarqawi is planning an attack on the United States. Still other intelligence says Zarqawi was planning a chemical weapons attack in Europe, officials said.

In February, U.S. intelligence and security officials said information showed bin Laden had asked Zarqawi to focus future attacks on targets inside the United States. The threat was contained in a classified bulletin to state and local security officials.

thank you, the two articles, say about all there is to tell.

The new terror leader in Iraq, has to make waves, big ones, with the President going to Iraq today, it rather puts the jihadi in the shade.

I listen to Dr. Bill Wattenberg on the radio at kgo.com, he has said for quite a while that it was not 'if', but when we would get hit with a nuclear devise, at least a dirty bomb, he expects one any day.

Dr. Bill is a nuclear weapon designer for our Gov.

You can read the daily "Shura Council" updates translated to English here:
http://press-release.blogspot.com/

snippet:

(refers to bin Laden)
Our Shaikh,

We pledge to your signal, and your commands, and we are happy to tell you that the morals of your soldiers are high, and honored souls that became under your flag, and beginnings of the near victory by Allah's well.

Thanks for the link.

Just another indicator that we've gotten way inside both AQ's OODA loop and decision/propaganda cycle.

No doubt. But just as dark clouds have silver linings, this "ray of hope" has a very dark tinge.

When your enemy is conventional and highly organized, the effects are likely to be more comprehensive and sustained. When the organization is diffuse and non-hierarchical, the effects will still be substantial, but the liabilities associated with their structural "dis-organization" now become "virtues" for them. This has been seen in the Zarqawi network (which is better called the "second wave" or "second generation" of al Qaeda) as partial "decapitations" occurred in 2002, 2003, and 2005, but the organization has always reconstituted. You cannot at one stroke "decapitate" an organization that is by nature decentralized. That is why the network over time will reconstitute itself. (And why this is called a "long war"). Otherwise, you could cut off the head (or heads), and eventually the body would die. Like weeds, you just have to keep coming after them long-term. The roots remain, and the heads will grow back. Short-term, the body runs around after the head is lopped off. Uncoordinated and chaotic to be sure, but when the jihadi organization you just "decapitated" was ready to fire a gun, you'd still better watch out that the dead fingers don't start squeezing off a few rounds - - all the more when what is chambered may be something you do not expect.

(from the archives)

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=681811&section=news&src=rss/uk/topNews

(snipped)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has fairly recently asked his chief ally in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to consider the territory of United States as a target for terrorist attacks, a U.S. counterterrorism official says.

"There has been communication between bin Laden and Zarqawi with bin Laden suggesting to Zarqawi the U.S. homeland as a target," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The official said on Monday the communication was "a fairly recent development" and contained no specific threat to the United States. But the official declined to provide details for fear of compromising U.S. anti-terrorism efforts.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has warned state officials around the country that the government had received non-specific information about al Qaeda's plans to attack the United States.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/10/10/1097346696072.html?from=moreStories&oneclick=true

Rebels eye nerve gas: CIA

By Bob Drogin
Washington
October 11, 2004

Militant leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and other insurgency networks across Iraq are increasingly trying to acquire and use toxic nerve gases, blister agents and germ weapons against US and coalition forces, according to a CIA report. . .

Investigators into the insurgency's attempts to acquire chemical weapons said one group, dubbed the al-Abud network, recruited scientists and sought to prepare poisons over seven months before it was dismantled in June.

The CIA says Zarqawi has long sought to use chemical and biological weapons against targets in Europe as well as Iraq.

An exhaustive report released last week by Charles Duelfer, the CIA's chief weapons investigator in Iraq, concluded that Saddam Hussein destroyed his stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons in the early 1990s and never tried to rebuild them.

But a little-noticed section of the 960-page report warns that the danger of a "devastating" attack with unconventional weapons has grown since the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq.

Zarqawi has long sought to use chemical and biological weapons against targets in Europe as well as Iraq.

The Bush Administration has not previously disclosed that the insurgent groups that have emerged and steadily expanded since Saddam's ousting are now seeking to develop their own crude supplies of such deadly agents as mustard gas, ricin and the nerve gas, tabun. . . .

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/i_latestdetail.asp?id=39001

Report: North Korean missile launch imminent, SKorean government official says(Updated 02:12 a.m.)

2006/6/15
SEOUL, South Korea (AP)

North Korea is in the final stages of preparations to test a long-range ballistic missile that could launch within a week, a news report said Thursday.

The only remaining steps to go for the test would be setting up the launch pad and injecting solid fuel into a Taepodong-2 missile, said KBS, South Korea's largest television network, citing an unidentified high-level government official.

A Taepodong-2 missile is capable of reaching as far as the U.S. mainland with a light payload.

The report didn't provide further details.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Choo Kyu-ho and other officials said they didn't have any such information.

But another government official, who requested not to be identified, said the Seoul government conveyed its concern to the North last month over a possible test.

Japanese and South Korean officials said last month the North had moved a missile to a launch site in a sign it was preparing a test launch. A senior South Korean intelligence official said it remained unclear whether the North was seeking to demonstrate its missile capability or was really preparing to fire a missile.

On Wednesday, U.S. Ambassador Alexander Vershbow warned North Korea against firing a missile, saying Washington would take unspecified "appropriate measures in response."

South Korea's Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon also said its ministry "was in discussions with related departments on possible measures" in case of a North Korean missile test.

The government's response to a missile launch would center on slowing the pace of economic cooperation with North Korea, the Dong-a Ilbo newspaper reported.

However, Seoul would also declare its opposition to military action against the North, the paper said, quoting an unnamed government official.

North Korea sent shock waves through the region when it test-fired a ballistic missile over northern Japan in 1998.

The North's missile program has been a major security concern in the region, on top of its pursuit of nuclear bombs.

The communist nation has been under a self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests since 1999. Still, it has since test-fired short-range missiles many times, including two in March.

"US Intel: Plutonium Sent By North Korea This Year Makes Iran Direct [Nuclear] Threat"

http://in.news.yahoo.com/040722/137/2f3nb.html

(snip)

"Rogue states, such as North Korea and Iran, may also be developing the capability to pose an EMP threat," said the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack.

The nine-member commission did not specify in publicly available material the source of its information on North Korea and Iran, which President George W. Bush grouped with prewar Iraq in what he called an "axis of evil."

Russia and China had "considered" limited nuclear attack options that, unlike their Cold War plans, involve EMP as their primary or sole weapon, it said.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050309-034257-9961r.htm

(snip)

Wood and Pry said knowledge of how to use an EMP as a weapon has been widespread for decades and China, Russia, Iran and North Korea all have discussed using EMP against the United States. They also said the commission was told by Russian military officers that Korea has the technology to develop a Super EMP and probably could do so in a few years. Terrorists, especially if helped by Iran, also could use an EMP weapon.

Long-time military analyst John Pike disagreed that terrorists were likely to use an EMP.

"It is just very difficult to imagine how terrorists are going to be able to lay hands on a nuclear-tipped missile, and launch it and reprogram it in such a way that it would be a high-altitude burst like that," said Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org. "I would be concerned about a state doing that. I would certainly be concerned about North Korea pulling a stunt like that. That would have to be a real concern -- that North Korea would do it."

http://www.theage.com.au/cgi-bin/common/popupPrintArticle.pl?path=/articles/2003/01/24/1042911552277.html

Japan may ask US to strike

Friday 24 January 2003, 22:05PM

(snip)

Japan said it could ask US forces to launch a pre-emptive strike on North Korean missile bases if Pyongyang was preparing to fire missiles at its territory.

The Director-General of the Defence Agency, Shigeru Ishiba, a cabinet minister, said that it would take "seven to eight minutes or 10 minutes at the most" for North Korean missiles to reach Japan.

"If (North Korea) starts injecting fuel (into missiles) as part of preparations after expressing its intention of throwing Japan into a sea of fire or reducing it to ashes, then it means the start of an attack," he told parliament's lower house budget committee.

The defence chief added that, under their security pact, Japan could entrust the United States with an attack on "enemy territory" while engaging itself in self-defence as a "shield".

His comment was made at a time when North Korea is threatening to lift a self-imposed moratorium on ballistic missile tests, earlier instances of which in 1993 and 1998 proved Japan was well within Pyongyang's striking range.

Heads-up:

CNN reporting UBL video release forthcoming (first since 2004)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060628/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_bin_laden_1

Bin Laden to issue tribute to al-Zarqawi
11 minutes ago

Osama bin Laden will issue a videotaped message paying tribute to slain al-Qaida in Iraq chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a message posted on an Islamic militant Web site said Wednesday.

The message did not say when the video would be posted or whether bin Laden himself would appear in it. The al-Qaida leader has issued three audiotapes this year but has not appeared in a video since one issued on Oct. 29, 2004.

A similar "advertisement" was issued for an al-Zarqawi tribute put out last week by bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri. The advertisement appeared on the Web a day before the video was posted on Friday.

Al-Zarqawi, who headed one of Iraq's most notorious insurgent groups, swore loyalty to bin Laden but is believed to have had sometimes rocky ties with al-Qaida's core leadership, based in the Afghan-Pakistani border region. The Jordanian-born al-Zarqawi was killed in a June 7 U.S. airstrike northeast of Baghdad.

The note for the bin Laden video was posted on a Web forum where militants often post messages. It was in the form of a blue banner signed by As-Sahab, the al-Qaida production branch.

The banner flashed the message, "Good News Soon," followed by a picture of a smiling al-Zarqawi and the words, "A tribute to the martyr of the Islamic nation and prince of the martyrdom-seekers, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, God rest his soul, from Sheik Osama bin Laden, God preserve him." The banner then flashes a picture of bin Laden.

The banner flashed the message, "Good News Soon," followed by a picture of a smiling al-Zarqawi and the words, "A tribute to the martyr of the Islamic nation and prince of the martyrdom-seekers, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, God rest his soul, from Sheik Osama bin Laden, God preserve him." The banner then flashes a picture of bin Laden.

Thanks for the alert. We have been anticipating bin laden's next release, haven't we?

Yes. But I seem to recall that back in the summer of 2004, there was an indication/net-rumor that UBL would release a video *after* an attack. That obviously did not happen with the October 29, 2004 release, but bears mentioning.

I did not like the phrase "Good News Soon". Was that caption included on Zawahiri's tribute I wonder? If so, I'd still be cautious. If not, I'd be very concerned.

Thanks for the ping and info Joe. Any idea to which jihad site this was originally posted?

I didn't see any reference to the website where it was originally posted. It might have been the same one that posted Zawahiri's eulogy for Zarqawi, but don't know its name. The as-Sahab banner was mentioned in the article. But that's the production outfit.

The banner flashed the message, "Good News Soon,"

Troubling.

Al Qaeda-Palestine (formerly led by Zarqawi) has reportedly been active in Gaza. If this (failed) chemical attack is true, it could mark a definitive crossing of the WMD threshold by al Qaeda. I believe this is the first claim of an actual WMD attack (small and crude though it may be). It came hours after the web posting. Bin Laden and Zarqawi have been preparing WMD attacks for several years.

If this is true, and if it is connected to the net warning, then it is likely that there is a major risk of an attempted WMD attack against the U.S. inside Iraq and/or major U.S. cities.

Al Qaeda engages in multiple, not single attacks. So if this was connected to the warning from a few hours ago, other shoes will drop.

Interesting that Iran's foreign minister deviated from his prepared text today at a UN conference to expound on the need to rid the Mideast of WMD (meaning Israel).

And the Iranian-Syrian defense pact signed two weeks ago is predicated on the same assertion (that the greatest threat to the region is Israel and its own unconventional arsenals and this Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah-Hamas-Sadrist "axis" will act (in "self-defense" of course) to eliminate this threat to the region.

A Syrian-Israeli War would ultimately go regional. And Iran might attempt to intervene.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L29258645.htm

Gaza militants say fired chemical-tipped warhead
29 Jun 2006 01:35:32 GMT
Source: Reuters

GAZA, June 29 (Reuters) - A spokesman for gunmen in the Gaza Strip said they had fired a rocket tipped with a chemical warhead at Israel early on Thursday.

The Israeli army had no immediate comment on the claim by the spokesman from the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an armed wing of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement.

The group had recently claimed to possess about 20 biological warheads for the makeshift rockets commonly fired from Gaza at Israeli towns. This was the first time the group had claimed firing such a rocket.

"The al-Aqsa Brigades have fired one rocket with a chemical warhead" at southern Israel, Abu Qusai, a spokesman for the group, said in Gaza.

An Israeli military spokeswoman said the army had not detected that any such rocket was fired, nor was there any report of such a weapon hitting Israel.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13597628/

Iran, at U.N., warns of Israeli nuclear threat
Foreign minister takes aim at Israel's presumed nuclear arsenal
Reuters

Updated: 1:53 p.m. CT June 28, 2006
UNITED NATIONS - Iran’s foreign minister used a speech to a U.N. conference on the illegal trade in small arms Wednesday to condemn Israel and comment on the threat he said was posed by its presumed nuclear arsenal.

While stemming the illicit trade in small arms was the meeting’s focus, “fighting proliferation in weapons of mass destruction, and combating the threats posed by those who possess such weapons — and particularly the Zionist regime — will always remain our greatest goal,” said Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

His remarks veered from the prepared text of his statement, which made no reference to Israel.

Iran, the world’s fourth largest oil exporter, has been on the defensive over its own nuclear program.

Tehran says it is pursuing nuclear enrichment to produce electricity, but Western powers have demanded that it suspend this activity, suspecting it is using a civilian nuclear program as a cover for the production of atomic weapons.

Iran has argued repeatedly that the West is using a double standard against it by ignoring Israel, which is assumed to have about 200 nuclear weapons but has never confirmed having any and, unlike Tehran, has not joined the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_id=11562

Iran, Syria sign defense pact
6/16/2006 1:00:00 PM GMT

Close allies Iran and Syria signed an agreement to expand military cooperation against what they called the “common threats” posed by Israel and the United States, AFP reported.

In a joint news conference, Iran’s Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar and visiting Syrian counterpart Hassan Turkmani said their talks focused on consolidating their defense capabilities and strengthening support for one another.

"Our cooperation is based on a strategic pact and unity against common threats. We can have a common front against Israel's threats," Turkmani told reporters on Thursday.

Earlier Thursday, Iran’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the two countries “stressed strengthening mutual ties and the necessity to preserve peace and stability in the region."

The statement added that both sides discussed "ridding the region of weapons of mass destruction," in an apparent reference to Israel, the only nuclear power in the Middle East.

The United States is leading a pressure campaign against Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran insists is aimed at peaceful purposes.

Washington claims that Iran, along with Syria and North Korea, are seeking weapons of mass destruction and describes them as “supporters of terrorism”

Asked about U.S. threats against Syria and Iran, the defense ministers downplayed the importance of such threats.

"This is nothing new, we will resist these threats," the Syrian defense minister said.

However, Turkmani dismissed the possibility of hosting an Iranian military base on Syrian soil. "The language of a (foreign) military base in our country is alien to us. I want to say that it is not on the agenda," he said.

For his part, the Iranian defense minister said that the “U.S. threats are a kind of psychological operation.”

Although both ministers refused to provide details about the military cooperation pact, Najjar said that Tehran "considers Syria's security its own security.”

The Iranian defense minister also dismissed allegations that Tehran could pose a threat to the region, stressing that "Iran is ready to sign a non aggression pact with regional countries.”

When asked about the upgrading process of the medium range Shahab 3 missile, which is capable of reaching Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East, Najjar said: “Our military warfare equipment is based on deterrent policies and strategy. Enemies should know about our capabilities and should not even think about an assault against us.”

He also said that Damascus bought some Iranian military equipment, but did not elaborate on the purchased items and didn’t say whether the purchases were made as part of Thursday's agreement.

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad welcomed a package of incentives offered by Western powers as "a step forward", BBC reported.

Insisting that Iran “isn’t seeking to develop nuclear weapons”, Ahmadinejad, who’s attending an Asian security summit in China, said that Tehran would consider the package offered last week by the U.S., EU, Russia and China.

He added that Iran would formally respond to the offer "in due time".

The package includes trade and security benefits in exchange for Iran’s suspension of uranium enrichment. It also includes sanctions if Tehran refuses to meet Western demands.

But Ahmadinejad said that “sanctions should not be used as a leverage or pressure against the countries of the world.”

The Iranian leader has held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao on the issue. The two permanent UN members have so far rejected sanctions or use of force against Tehran.

"Our views and positions on many issues are close or even identical," Ahmadinejad said.

>>>Bin Laden to issue tribute to al-Zarqawi

Thanks Joe, should be interesting.