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State Dept Official: Iran Could Build Nukes in 'Days'
NewsMax ^ | 13 April 2006 | Carl Limbacher

Posted on 04/12/2006 5:03:46 PM PDT by Aussie Dasher

Iran could build a nuclear weapon within "days" once it completes plans to beef up its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, a State Department official said Wednesday.

"Natanz was constructed to house 50,000 centrifuges," Stephen Rademaker, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, told reporters in Moscow. "Using those 50,000 centrifuges they could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 16 days."

Earlier on Wednesday, Iran's deputy nuclear chief, Mohammad Saeedi, appeared on Iran's state-run TV network to announce plans for "industrial scale" uranium enrichment involving 54,000 centrifuges at the Natanz facility, according to the Associated Press.

Rademaker, whose stunning "nukes-in-days" prediction was first reported by Bloomberg News, offered his comments in reaction to Saeedi's announcement.

Iran's first successful attempt to enrich uranium, announced Tuesday by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was accomplished with just 164 centrifuges. While it's not clear how quickly Iran could reach the 50,000 centrifuge mark, there are indications that the rogue nation is already much closer than indicated by Tuesday's announcement.

Last August, an exiled Iranian dissident who helped uncover nearly two decades of covert nuclear activity in 2002, told the Associated Press that Iran has already manufactured thousands of centrifuges capable of enriching uranium to weapons grade.

"4,000 centrifuge machines have not been declared to the IAEA," Alireza Jafarzadeh said. "And the regime has kept the production of these machines hidden from the inspectors while the negotiations with the European Union have been going on over the past 21 months."

In Feb. 2003, UN nuclear watchdog Mohamed ElBaradei visited Natanz. He reported that in a nearby building, workers were assembling parts for thousands of centrifuges.

The Natanz facility is buried 75 feet underground and has a reinforced concrete roof, according to GlobalSecurity.org.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iran; irannukes; nukes; shite
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To: hubbubhubbub
Wasn't that Hitler's plan also?

Hitler's plan was to kill all of the Jews, just like the mullahs, imams (and whatever the hell else you want to call them) over there want to.

So, actually attacking them would be like going after a bunch of little Hitlers in turbins and dirty night shirts...

41 posted on 04/12/2006 6:08:50 PM PDT by Sir Francis Dashwood (LET'S ROLL!)
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To: ThirstyMan

we need to kill the scientists not just destroy the physical program..we must destroy the knowledge


42 posted on 04/12/2006 6:10:41 PM PDT by georgia2006
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To: Aussie Dasher

Assuming they have 5000 centrifuges they could have a uranium bomb every six months. Starting from when? 2002? That could be eight bombs already.


43 posted on 04/12/2006 6:11:39 PM PDT by RightWhale (Off touch and out of base)
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To: georgia2006

When Western civilization is threatened like this, we can't wait for our enemy to gain equal footing can we? We must strike but I am afraid we'll not strike hard enough and we'll simply create a bigger monster.


44 posted on 04/12/2006 6:13:09 PM PDT by ThirstyMan (hysteria: the elixir of the Left that trumps all reason)
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To: monkapotamus
hopefully Iran not going first

Iran will go first. Sneak attack like Pearl Harbor during negotiations. Then war will be demanded, and war it will be.

45 posted on 04/12/2006 6:13:32 PM PDT by RightWhale (Off touch and out of base)
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To: monkapotamus

Unfortunately, we won the toss and have elected to receive.


46 posted on 04/12/2006 6:14:02 PM PDT by MediaMole
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To: Aussie Dasher

We should have already taken action with at least a complete UN economic sanction plan.

But since China and Russia and the world oil market wouldn't let us, we are now stuck with all the other options (as limited as those may be.)

And just noting that Europe's plan of constructive engagement through the IAEA and diplomacy has totally failed as well.

Not many option left. One may be just dealing with the fact that Iran will soon be one of the nuclear powers. Can't be the best option available.



47 posted on 04/12/2006 6:16:46 PM PDT by JustDoItAlways
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To: LibWhacker
I surprised how many people actually believed him. Surely, it's highly classified and he's not going to tell his enemy exactly where he is in the development of nuclear weapons. Either they achieved enrichment a long time ago and are trying to hide from us how far along they really are, or they're bluffing and are nowhere close. imo

I've been wondering along a similar line, too, ever since the celebration with dancers and enriched uranium as part of the act.

Saddam was a lot of bluff. On the other hand, maybe Ahmadinejad is doing a double-back bluff...counting on us thinking he's bluffing when he's really got the goods.

Maybe he's got what he says but maybe he sees the room closing in on him and he's got nothing.
48 posted on 04/12/2006 6:21:50 PM PDT by hummingbird (Bloggers killed the Media Stars.)
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To: ThirstyMan
we can't wait for our enemy to gain equal footing

Even if they had 1000 nukes they couldn't be on equal footing. They can make a regional mess and they will lose every way possible. Regional would be from Egypt to India, which is a large region. The key is for Russia, China and the US to act more or less together or at least not oppose each other. If China takes advantage for their own territorial ambitions the world will be very different in the morning.

49 posted on 04/12/2006 6:22:06 PM PDT by RightWhale (Off touch and out of base)
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To: Aussie Dasher

Well...Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC with Chris Matthews, was very positive about Condi Rice's chances of stopping any military action by the US. According to Mitchell, Condi has GW's ear, not like Powell, who was always the odd man out. No, Condi's powerful, she'll keep us from doing anything but talk, talk, talk while they work away at nukes. (Hard not to scream and throw something heavy at the TV.)


50 posted on 04/12/2006 6:25:47 PM PDT by hershey
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To: Sir Francis Dashwood

Your scale of ignorance is so massive I don't know why I am even replying.


51 posted on 04/12/2006 6:28:16 PM PDT by hubbubhubbub
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To: Sun

As a matter of fact, Israel glared at the US and cleared her throat rather loudly today.


52 posted on 04/12/2006 6:28:19 PM PDT by hershey
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To: Aussie Dasher
Look folks. I am not going into all the stages they must surmount. I had written a rather lengthly explaination yesterday at another posting by blam.
Think of it this way. The tiny centifuge cascade system they have gotten to work cannot be used to create a sufficient amount of U-235 (% of enrichment within the output stage), that would even come close to the required enrichment level that can be considered fissile in sufficient amounts.
It will take a very sophisticated huge system, literally thousands of serial stages coupled in multiparallel form, to eventually be able to provide a system that can actually provide weapon grade uranium.
What they have done, is finally put together a very little system (lab level), that an produce a miniscule amount of U-235 of a percent high enough to be used in some type nuclear reactors to produce electricity. That is all they have been able to accomplish thus far.
It will require years of building a huge centifuge system fully automated to produce weapon grade material.
It is simple as that.
The L/MSM are not inventing anything here. Iran does not have the capability to produce weapon grade uranium.
And guess what.
It cannot at this point even create enough 3-5% (the bear minumum percentage of U-235 isotope within the output seperation to even MAKE ONE FUEL ROD FOR ANY OF THEIR REACTORS. This is the reality.
Instead of going whacko, just read what I have repeated from other posts.
What everyone is anxious about is they now can build on their little unit, and the many other parts of the process no one ever talks about to eventually, say within a year or two, be able to produce, if they are lucky, enough say 5% enriched uranium that they can then create fuel rods for, which of course would go toward their long term plan to provide their own fuel rods for their reactors which will be used to for producing electricity.
And please note. Yes, with the right kind of reactor one can if they know how, remove spent fuel rods and through various chemical processes extract plutonium, in this case PU-239, which would could be used for a low yield atomic bomb.
But they could go this route over a period of time even if they where able to in clandestine form, switch Russian supplied fuel rods.
So without getting into a lot of details as to how technical and difficult a process is, for obtaining sufficient amounts of highly enriched uranium for a bomb, please realize they are a long way off from that level.
53 posted on 04/12/2006 6:29:27 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned)
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To: LibWhacker

Heard this stupidity on MSNBC or maybe CNN...if we bombed Iran now, we'd be setting their nuke program back maybe two years, so what's the point.


54 posted on 04/12/2006 6:32:25 PM PDT by hershey
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To: carl in alaska
Guided Bomb Unit-28 (GBU-28)
BLU-113 Penetrator

The Guided Bomb Unit-28 (GBU-28) is a special weapon developed for penetrating hardened Iraqi command centers located deep underground. The GBU-28 is a 5,000-pound laser-guided conventional munition that uses a 4,400-pound penetrating warhead. The bombs are modified Army artillery tubes, weigh 4,637 pounds, and contain 630 pounds of high explosives. They are fitted with GBU-27 LGB kits, 14.5 inches in diameter and almost 19 feet long. The operator illuminates a target with a laser designator and then the munition guides to a spot of laser energy reflected from the target.

 

The GBU 28 "Bunker Buster" was put together in record time to support targeting of the Iraqi hardened command bunker by adapting existing materiel. The GBU-28 was not even in the early stages of research when Kuwait was invaded. The USAF asked industry for ideas in the week after combat operations started. Work on the bomb was conducted in research laboratories including the the Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate located at Eglin AFB, Florida and the Watervliet Armory in New York. The bomb was fabricated starting on 1 February, using surplus 8-inch artillery tubes as bomb casings because of their strength and weight. The official go-ahead for the project was issued on 14 February, and explosives for the initial units were hand-loaded by laboratory personnel into a bomb body that was partially buried upright in the ground. The first two units were delivered to the USAF on 16 and 17 February, and the first flight to test the guidance software and fin configuration was conducted on 20 February. These tests were successful and the program proceeded with a contract let on 22 February. A sled test on 26 February proved that the bomb could penetrate over 20 feet of concrete, while an earlier flight test had demonstrated the bomb's ability to penetrate more than 100 feet of earth. The first two operational bombs were delivered to the theater on 27 February.

 

The Air Force produced a limited quantity of the GBU-28 during Operation Desert Storm to attack multi-layered, hardened underground targets. Only two of these weapons were dropped in Desert Storm, both by F-111Fs. One weapon hit its precise aimpoint, and the onboard aircraft video recorder displayed an outpouring of smoke from an entrance way approximately 6 seconds after impact. After Operation Desert Storm, the Air Force incorporated some modifications, and further tested the munition. The Fy1997 budget request contained $18.4 million to procure 161 GBU-28 hard target penetrator bombs.

Specifications

Mission Offensive counter air, close air support, interdiction
Targets Fixed hard
Class 4,000 lb. Penetrator, Blast/Fragmentation
Service Air Force
Contractor Lockheed (BLU-113/B), National Forge (BLU-113A/B),
Program status Production
First capability 1991
Weight (lbs.) 4,414
Length (in.) 153
Diameter (in.) 14.5
Explosive 6471bs. Tritonal
Fuze FMU-143 Series
Stabilizer Air Foil Group (Fins)
Guidance method Laser (man-in-the-loop)
Range Greater than 5 nautical miles
Development cost Development cost is not applicable to this munition.
Production cost $18.2 million
Total cost $18.2 million
Acquisition unit cost $145,600
Production unit cost $145,600
Quantity 125 plus additional production
Platforms F-15E, F-111F

55 posted on 04/12/2006 6:32:59 PM PDT by b4its2late (There are good terrorists.............. DEAD ONES.)
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To: hummingbird

I don't think they'd bluff about being almost ready to build a bomb. If they were going to bluff they'd either say they had no weapons program or that they'd already built a bomb and its attached to a missile that can be aimed anywhere from Rome to an Us army base in Iraq.

Bluffing about almost being there is just going to give us more reason to attack sooner.


56 posted on 04/12/2006 6:33:06 PM PDT by RHINO369
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To: RHINO369

Is Iammadjohn a poker player? If so he would know when not to bluff is when your opponent has a pat hand.


57 posted on 04/12/2006 6:36:17 PM PDT by RightWhale (Off touch and out of base)
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To: hubbubhubbub
I don't know why I am even replying.

Because you must. Feminized males have to get last word just like a woman... either that or, like the mullahs in dirty nightshirts, you don't like Jews either...

58 posted on 04/12/2006 6:48:48 PM PDT by Sir Francis Dashwood (LET'S ROLL!)
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To: Aussie Dasher
Personally, I believe that air strikes on Iran would be a mistake at this point in time. If we do this, we are going to be starting a war that we aren't going to finish, and a half decade from now when Iran does build a bomb they are going to remember.

Either go in, depose the government and take their program apart on the ground, or do nothing.
59 posted on 04/12/2006 6:53:01 PM PDT by Old_Mil (http://www.constitutionparty.org - Forging a Rebirth of Freedom.)
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To: hubbubhubbub

LOL. That's it!! Let's bomb everybody we don't like. Wasn't that Hitler's plan also?

Now, that's hardly fair. We don't like the French, and we don't bomb them.

Actually, it's not a question of disliking people. It's a question of do you wait until Ahmadinejad has a nuclear missile and threatens Tel Aviv with it? Because then there will be a big old war, with lots of bombing.


60 posted on 04/12/2006 6:53:47 PM PDT by popdonnelly
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