Posted on 04/06/2006 3:14:09 PM PDT by ex-Texan
The area's home prices have a 60-percent chance of dropping, one of many factors making San Diego the riskiest real estate market in the nation, according to a quarterly report put out by a California mortgage insurer.
The report, put out by the Bay Area insurance company PMI Group, is well-respected by experts, who said it usually gives an accurate picture of the state of the nation's 50 largest home-buying markets. However, they stressed that the report is merely the latest in a long line of analyses that point to something the industry already knows: The nation's housing market is cooling, and San Diego is ahead of the curve.
"You guys are leading the nation -- congratulations," remarked Chris Thornberg, a senior analyst at the University of California, Los Angeles Anderson Forecast.
Last year at this time, the quarterly report ranked the San Diego region as the fifth-riskiest market in the nation. That report put Boston as the riskiest.
The report bases its ratings for each individual market on three factors: How well the local economy is doing; how much and how quickly home prices are appreciating; and the affordability of housing in that market.
San Diego's took a hard knock because of the third criterion. The area's homes are among the least affordable in the nation, according to PMI's data, and that means the people who buy them are more likely to default on their mortgages despite the relatively strong local economy. Hence San Diego's high-risk rating.
The area is also suffering from a slowed price appreciation.
In the last few years, San Diego's risk factor has been tempered by consistent price increases. But those increases dropped dramatically from last quarter, compounding the poor score the area received in the report.
Gary London, president of The London Group Realty Advisors in San Diego, said the report adds to the "parade of statistical indicators" showing that the real estate market is slowing. However, he doesn't think that slowdown is going to affect most homeowners, but only people on the fringes of the market.
That means people who have bought in the last year and who need to sell this year, or people who have entered into mortgages that they simply cannot afford, London said. Those people should probably be concerned at the signals the market is giving off, he said.
Indeed, even if prices do drop, London said, that's only going to open the door to a lot of people who have been watching the market from the sidelines, unwilling to get into the action. If prices drop, even slightly, he said, there are a lot of people waiting to buy.
Stephanie Corns, a spokeswoman for PMI, said the purpose of the report is to better inform home buyers and sellers about the real estate market. She said that people looking to buy a home need to consider how risky an area is before buying there. That's especially important when a buyer is considering buying their home using a non-traditional loan such as an interest-only mortgage, she said.
"Some of the exotic (loan) products transfer a lot of the risks to the borrower, so you really need to gauge what amount of risk you are comfortable taking on. Are you comfortable having a lot of risk in your mortgage and a lot of risk in your market area?"
However, Corns stressed that PMI still considers buying a home to be a safe investment on the whole, even in risky markets like San Diego. She said the company's research has shown that real estate prices always increase in the long term, so buying a house is always a sensible long-term strategy.
Alan Gin, a professor of economics at the University of San Diego's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, said the report is certainly worth considering for home-buyers before they take out a mortgage, but he pointed out that the riskiness of a market is not likely to be the defining factor for a potential buyer.
"It gives you more information, but you probably shouldn't base your decision exclusively on this information," Gin said.
Topping out the top five riskiest markets in the nation were Santa Ana/Anaheim/Irvine; Boston; Nassau/Suffolk, New York; Riverside/San Bernardino; and Sacramento.
WTF is this? are you stalking Petronski?
Wise up. I posted the news report. He's stalking me along with a group of FR realtors and mortgage brokers.
My opinion from reading this thread and looking at your FR homepage is that I concur with them, that your primary use of this site, at least as it relates to this thread is commercial.
BS . . .
Famous last words...?
My opinion from reading this thread and looking at your FR homepage is that I concur with them, that your primary use of this site, at least as it relates to this thread is commercial.ex-Texan:
bs...Really?
ex-Texan # 125
The first point of our lesson is self-evident. A new owner who buys this property will lose at least $5,000 per month if he rents it out.OUR LESSON?...Who is "our"?Perhaps the answer is in my post.
Here's a little counterbalance to your scenarios of doom (from the Las Vegas Review Journal):
http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Apr-07-Fri-2006/business/6747373.html
Median prices edge up in valley Realtors survey
By HUBBLE SMITH
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Michael Colagioia, who wants to move to Southern Nevada from Florida, was hoping to read more stories about the flattening real estate market in Las Vegas, about median home prices continuing to decline.
Those days may have already come and gone. Any ground lost in January and February was quickly recovered in March, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported.
The median price for 2,521 homes sold during the month was $314,950, up 1.9 percent from February and up 6.8 percent from the same month a year ago.
"I said not to get excited one way or another," association President Linda Rheinberger said Thursday, "and now the return to normalcy has come true. We're about stabilized if we look at the first quarter."
Prices had dropped for two straight months from $312,000 in December to $309,000 in February, leading some to believe the "bubble" was starting to pop in Las Vegas.
Stephen East, a housing analyst for Susquehanna Financial Group in St. Louis, said he recently toured Las Vegas and found that many of his observations echoed what he saw and heard in November -- that Las Vegas is in the midst of a return to normal conditions.
The market appears more divergent with areas that aredistinctly hot and others that he characterized as difficult.
"Overall, we continue to see a solid housing market in Las Vegas thanks to a robust economy that is creating jobs and attracting significant in-migration," East said, "but we have a higher level of caution now versus five months ago, given elevated incentives and cancellations, combined with further signs of inconsistency in pricing power."
Colagioia of Florida said he put his house up for sale, but the market is slow there and not many people have looked at the house. He and his wife have decided that their careers in Florida are going nowhere and they like the opportunity for growth in Las Vegas.
"She's very excited about a fresh start here," he said via e-mail. "We both are. We found central Florida to be very boring."
Rheinberger of the Realtors' association said she'd be surprised if Las Vegas doesn't reach the projected 5 percent to 10 percent appreciation in prices by the end of the year.
The number of homes available for sale on the Multiple Listing Service grew 21.8 percent from a year ago to 17,385, association statistics show. Nearly 44 percent of homes sold within 30 days on the market, compared with 38.2 percent in February and 42.9 percent in March 2005.
Total dollar volume for March home sales was $957.8 million, down 13.5 percent from a year ago.
So ex-Texan has been predicted doom for 3 years and it's already over? That's funny!! I guess he won't be snapping up foreclosures to fund his retirement to an Italian villa.
Liar.
It is located in Brigantine City, Atlantic County. View Listing Here
The estimated payment is only $ $8,921 per month. That might pay 50% down on a three bedroom house in Pennsylvania.
What a bargain! Step right up and flip this house!
Yet, you still claim there is no housing bubble.
You're a laughingstock, ET. You should know that.
People understand you're here to pimp your blog (the one as big as CNN and Reuters!), and with that, your credibility has become vanishingly small.
Pimp on, big pimpdaddy.
I guess my question is, so what? I'm not buying it, so I don't have to worry about the payments. And if I'm stupid enough to buy it and not plan for loss of my $600,000 annual salary, why should anybody else care?
And if I should worry, then what socialist-based prescription do you advise (since you aren't satisfied with free-market solutions)? Outlaw loans under certain debt to value ratios? Outlaw loans where principal payment is deferred? Limit annual appreciation?
Topping out the top five riskiest markets in the nation were Santa Ana/Anaheim/Irvine; Boston; Nassau/Suffolk, New York; Riverside/San Bernardino; and Sacramento.
All these places suck
Just as an aside, I'm sure he'll return and tell us the final selling price too, not just what someone put down as the listing price.
By that logic, if this realtor had decided to list it for 18,750,000, then the "bubble" would be ten times as bad, and if she had listed it for $187,500,000 it would be 100x as bad, etc.
What matters is the selling price and the identity of the buyer stupid enough to pay it.
Ultimately, the answer is, "we've got to give him more page hits! Click on it now! Again! Again!"
I don't know. I just can't sleep, knowing that someone in Oakland, California just paid too much for a house. :-)
Someone in Oakland, California just paid too much for a house!
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The chart rates riskiness based on the change in the rate of appreciation. San Diego dropped from 2004 to 2005 from a 25% rate to a 15% rate of appreciation. I have rarely read a more inance analysis in my life about anything. Risk is associated with ratios of home prices to income levels, and projections of future population growth and incomes, and the availablility of land. Just using past rates of apreciation is GIGO.
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