DICK MORRIS - "Suddenly it's a race" (Spencer vs. Hillary)

NY POST ^ | 4/6/06 | Dick Morris

[nycfree]

HILLARY VS. HILLARY April 6, 2006 -- HILLARY may need to break into a sweat after all.

In the wake of Jeanine Pirro's awkward withdrawal from the race, many assumed that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's only re-election challenge would be trying to beat the New York blowout record set by Sen. Chuck Schumer in 2004. But the latest poll by John Zogby indicates that Hillary suddenly has a food fight on her hands.

In his first poll after Pirro dropped out on Jan. 13, Zogby had Hillary ahead of GOP challenger John Spencer by 61 percent to 31 percent. But in his most recent survey, conducted March 27, her margin had fallen to 54-33.

Hillary's drop did not reflect any aggressive paid media push by Spencer. He has yet to run his first ad. Rather, Hillary is losing the key contest of Hillary vs. Hillary - her negatives are rising.

In New York City, she dropped from a 68-19 lead to 62-25. In the suburbs, she fell from 55-36 to 48-41. Upstate, her edge went from 57-38 to 43-42.

Suddenly, it's a race.

Animating Hillary's drop are losses on all ends of the political spectrum. She's down by six points among Democrats, and by 12 with Republcians. But her key falloff is among independents - from 64 percent to 49 percent.

This dose of negative poll data may well prompt the Clinton campaign to dip into her her vast war chest to go on-air with ads. But if Spencer raises the money his current standing in the polls deserves, he'll be able to counter Hillary and erode her lead further.

[mewzilla]

Snort. It was always a race.

[Past Your Eyes]

"Snort. It was always a race."

But never a close one. Don't waste your hopes on this one.

[mewzilla]

Do you live in NYS?

[Non-Sequitur]

But in his most recent survey, conducted March 27, her margin had fallen to 54-33.

Only up by 21 points. She must be shaking in her boots.

[HHFi]

It is easy now to look back and say that Hillary ran for Senate in 2000 in order to set up a presidential bid. But, in 2000, very few voters would have believed that she was going to run for president.

If New Yorkers are really that gullible, I need to move up there and start selling them the Brooklyn Bridge.

[mewzilla]

If New Yorkers are really that gullible

Just the urban bits mostly, with the area around Canandaigua and Ithaca thrown in. But even some of those folks have begun to wake up and smell the coffee :)

[bill1952]

After which they will grumble a bit and then vote for her, correct?

What do you see as the outcome?

[Chi-townChief]

I never trust anything written by El Dicko.

[GWB00]

My dad thinks Dick Morris is a real smart guy.

I told him he may be smart, but he is always wrong.

[mewzilla]

Let's put it this way, if the rumblings I hear (Upstate, anyway) are any indication, it's no shoe-in for Hilliary. And even if she were to win re-election to the Senate, it'd be after one mother of an expensive and dirty race, which will only harm her in terms of the national election. After all, all eyes will be on this race as an early indicator.

But I'll stick my neck out and give you this prediction: that there's a very good chance Hillie will decide to opt out of a re-election bid for the Senate to concentrate on her run for prez. And if she does that, she'll wait 'til the last possible minute and leave the state party holding the bag. And the state party being what it is, a wholly owned subsidiary of Toon Inc, they won't so much as whimper.

[Tarpon]

It's never a good idea to fight the losers fight. We should stop pie in the sky contributing and stick to the goals of more red states, candidates from those states deserve support. Some things just aren't doable.

[babydoll22]

Dick Morris is the lowest of the low bottom feeder.

[sgtbono2002]

So you are advocating we just let Hilllary win by default?? How long have you been working for the Hillary campaign. She can be beaten.

[Neville72]

"Let's put it this way, if the rumblings I hear (Upstate, anyway) are any indication, it's no shoe-in for Hilliary."

Good point. No way will the Hildabeast risk a loss that would effectively end any shot she has at the WH.

I'd love to see her forced to drop out though because even that would have many/most Democrats saying that if she can't win in New York there's no way she can win nationally.

[Real Cynic No More]

Only up by 21 points. She must be shaking in her boots.

Is little Dickie trying to create some hype where there isn't any yet?

[nycfree]

The defeatest losers that post on this blog make me sick. Go Away!!!

You are no friend to the conservative movement.

Get a hobby, get a job, get a life.

[Tarpon]

Nope, what I am saying is that to chase rainbows with limited dollars is a losing strategy no matter how much you want to beat her... It's NY after all. Focus on winnable races in other states, increase the majority and be happy.

If she is beatable, then do it. As for me, Hillary is a big yeck, if she is the Presidential candidate, which I doubt the Dems will be that foolish, then it's different.

[Enduring Freedom]

The 'Rats have infiltrated FR.

They understand the power of Freepers to influence events on the ground.

Spencer has a shot, and deserves the support and respect of everyone who isn't a piece-of-shiite Commie Socialist Jihadi Anti-American Traitor.

[Tarpon]

You obviously have deep vast knowledge of building a winning constituency. I would put my conservative credentials up against yours any day.