Posted on 03/27/2006 12:14:55 PM PST by anotherview
Monday, March 27, 2006
Last Pre-Election Polls: Kadima 34-36 Labor 17-21 Likud 12-14 Yisrael Beiteinu 7-15 NRP/Nat'l Union 8-12
Aaron Lerner Date:27 March 2006
Dialogue found 28 seat for "undecided"
#1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 503 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Maagar Mochot on 25 March after the end of the Sabbath for the Mishal Cham television program.
#2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Dialogue for Channel 10 and Haaretz on 26 March 2006 (poll completed early afternoon).
#3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Ahronot on 26 March 2006
#4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Teleseker for Maariv on 26 March 2006
Knesset election vote expressed in mandates [current in brackets]
#1 #2 #3 #4 34 36 34 34 [00] Kadima 12 14 13 14 [40] Likud 19 18 21 17 [22] Labor 00 00 00 00 [15] Shinui (both the party and the break-away "Secular Zionist Party") 08 11 11 12 [11] Shas 07 08 07 07 [08] Arab parties 06 06 05 05 [06] Yachad [Meretz] 08 12 09 11 [07* & 6] National Union & NRP 15 07 12 12 [07*] Yisrael Beiteinu [Lieberman] 07 06 06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah 02 02 02 02 [00] Gil [retired people's party headed by Rafi Eitan] 01 ----------[00] Green Party (environment) 01 ----------[00] Green Leaf (hashis) * National Union & Yisrael Beiteinu together have 7 seats * at least two seats are required - 2.5% of the vote - to pass teh threshold.
Maagar Mochot also aksed:
Who would you prefer as treasury miniser? Netanyahu 37% Peretz 11% Shitreet 29% Other replies 23%
Who would you prefer as minister of education? Livnat 7% Tamir 41% Reichman 13% Other replies 39%
Who would you prefer as minister of defense? Mofaz 42% Ayalon 25% Landau 16% Other replies 17%
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis) (mail POB 982 Kfar Sava) Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730 INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il Website: http://www.imra.org.il
There is already speculation in the Israeli media that such a poor finish will mean the ouster of Binyamin Netanyahu in Likud and that Silvan Shalom would take over. There is also speculation that Shalom will bring Likud into coalition with Kadima as will Avigdor Lieberman with Yisrael Beitenu to form a center-right coalition. That is certainly numerically possible. We'll see.
Those who are still predicting Kadima will lose here on FR are engaged in wishful thinking.
ping
Freepers can't cope well with polls. They dismiss them routinely, especially when they show their favorites doing poorly. In fact, it's not uncommon for many Freepers to add phantom points for all sorts of odd things (polling on weekends, 'too many' self identified dems, imaginary 10-15 point boosts for the imaginary capture of Bin Ladin, etc) to make a poll fit their world view.
Wednesday is going to be interesting.
-Eric
Since Kadima wins I wonder when the Israelis are going to begin to move out or back to New YOrk or some other convenient place.
They cannot say that they didn't have a choice. If they choose Olmert his plans are what they bargained for.
Anotherview. I'm certain that this, like every other fact, will not be understood by you: but don't you feel all warm and tingly that your hopes and dreams and "Rightist" enemies are identical to those of one of FR's prominent Israel haters?
Warning! This is a high-volume ping list.
My main problem with Kadima is that their platform seems Amoral. It demands nothing from the Palestinian leadership (which I think is precisely what helped put Hamas over the top), and it offers no solutions to Israels longer-term problems. Likud is still facing up to the long-term problems Israel faces, and many of it's leaders (most notably Natan Sharansky) are on the front lines of the ideological war against Islamo-Fascism. If Shalom is with these guys I'm all for him. I personally like Netanyahu, but it seems that he really has lost all credibility with the broader Israeli population.
You see Alouette, among a normal people when your mortal enemy wishes one thing, you would wish another............
PA Will Scrutinize Israeli Election
22:22 Mar 27, '06 / 27 Adar 5766
(IsraelNN.com) According to senior political analyst Ehud Ya’ari, the Palestinian Authority (PA) on Tuesday will scrutinize the 17th Knesset election, hoping for a strong Kadima to emerge the victor.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=100913
.........unless you've gone insane.
Who cares?
The only poll that matters is the one tomorrow. The outcome is not decided until then.
I read the thread (and original article in the Jerusalem Post) about their lack of ideology. Funny, when I first joined the Republican party in the U.S. in the 70s it was a big tent party as well. Most of the party were either conservatives as we know them today or "Eastern establishment" (moderate) Republicans, but we had some liberals as well (Javits, Weicker, etc...)
I have railed against idealogues on this site for years and championed pragmatism. That is what Kadima is -- a pragmatic answer to managing the conflict with the Arabs. The fact that Prime Minister Olmert intends to continue the free market economic policies of Sharon and Netanyahu also suits me. Dismantling what is left of the old socialist Israel must continue if our economy is to thrive.
Arutz Sheva is such a biased source it's not funny. The PA will take no joy from a Kadima victory.
Keep on believing. Excuse every fact that doesn't match your delusion.
I see you also ignored my comment in #8.
Kadima's platform is not amoral. We can expect nothing from the Palestinians. They are not interested in peace. We must therefore decide what is the best way to insure the following:
1. Security and safety of Israel's citizens
2. Maintaining the Jewish nature of Israel and it's status as a democratic, representative Jewish state
I, like many Israelis, contend that we cannot do these things with millions of hostile Arabs inside our borders. We will draw our borders based on demographics, including annexing the major settlement blocs, and wall out the Palestinian Arabs. We will respond with force when needed to any attacks. Jericho was a small sample of what the IDF can and will do when allowed to meet its objectives without restraint.
We cannot remain a Jewish democracy with an Arab majority, and that is what we will have if we keep all of Judea and Samaria and enfranchise our enemies. We cannot forcibly remove the Palestinians without a major international intervention on their side, much as was seen in Kosovo. There is nothing we can offer them to get them to leave voluntarily no matter what Mikhael Kleiner says. Unilaterlal separation is the best available option.
To those who claim this will make Israel insecure I will point to leaders of Kadima which include Shaul Mofaz, a former Chief of Staff, Avi Dichter, a former GSS (Shabak) chief, etc... These people know security.
Alouette will raise the issue of corruption and she is absolutely correct to do so. The problem in Israel is that all our major parties have had corruption scandals, even the religious parties. A Shas MK just had to resign due to corruption, for example, and their former leader, Aryeh Deri, did significant prison time. Tell me, would you turn your back on the Republicans because of the Abramoff scandal? Are the Democrats better? I think not.
I will be honest enough to say that when I say a Geocartographia poll showing Tafnit surpassing the electoral threshold I did think about voting for them. Then I though about Uzi Dayan, and would he be a better leader, and that he came from Labour, and the very real chance that I'd be throwing away a vote, and decided that Kadima best represents my views.
Based on the passionate discussions that take place on Free Republic every day on this subject I'd say a lot of conservative Americans care very deeply about Israel and the type of governance we will have. We may disagree about policy and which party should govern but I am very glad they care and want a safe and secure Israel.
You should care. Israel is on the front lines in the war on terror.
Your #8 is in such broken English that I had no idea what you are trying to say.
Honestly, though, you are right. I mostly ignore you. It is impossible to have any sort of reasonable discussion or debate with you. As far as I am concerned you are the delusional one, and I am the one who gets to vote.
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