California Election Turns Highly Competitive (Rasmussen Poll)

Angus Reid ^ | March 25, 2006 | Angus Reid Global Scan

[FairOpinion]

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – There is no clear favourite in the Golden State’s gubernatorial ballot, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for Democratic state treasurer Phil Angelides, while 44 per cent would support Republican incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger.

In an election pitting Schwarzenegger against state controller Steve Westly, the Democrat also holds a one-point edge. The Democratic nomination will be decided in a primary ballot on Jun. 6.

Schwarzenegger—a Republican—won California’s recall election in October 2003 with 48.7 per cent of the vote. In November 2005, California voters took part in a special election on eight measures. Schwarzenegger actively promoted a "Yes" vote in the initiatives concerning tenure for public teachers, redistricting, and spending, which where defeated.

Schwarzenegger will seek a full term in office in the gubernatorial election scheduled for Nov. 7. On Mar. 20, Republican Arizona senator John McCain headlined a fundraiser for the governor in Beverly Hills. The event collected an estimated $2.5 million U.S. for Schwarzenegger’s re-election campaign.

Polling Data

Election 2006 - California Goveror

Option 1

Mar. 2006 Dec. 2005

Phil Angelides (D) 45% 44%

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 44% 40%

Option 2

Mar. 2006 Dec. 2005

Steve Westly (D) 45% 46%

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 44% 39%

Source: Rasmussen Reports Methodology: Telephone interviews with 500 California likely voters, conducted on Mar. 15, 2005. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

[FairOpinion]

The election between Schwarzenegger and the Dem will be very close. Every vote counts.

Note the poll is of likely voters, so it's probably fairly realistic.

[georgia2006]

actually looks good for Arnold..trend is in the right direction

[FOG724]

Schwarzenegger—a Republican—won California’s recall election in October 2003

He is not going to win by trying to out Dem the Democrats.

Arnold is not a Republican!

[goldstategop]

There's not much for voters to choose and the election will probably come down to differences of style and personality. When you have two liberals running for the same job, don't expect anything different.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[Ma3lst0rm]

I doubt Arnold will lose especially with polling showing it that close. The only way to unseat Arnold is for the Dems to run on specifics that the people want otherwise Arnold will be back again.

[FairOpinion]

The rule of thumb says that the incumbent should poll over 50%.

I hope in the coming months Arnold's numbers will go up.

The US Chamber of Commerce started some good ads for Arnold. At least they are not waiting until it's too late, which it the main reason the Special Election Propositions went down in flames, the unions ran nasty ads unopposed.

[FairOpinion]

Arnold IS a Republican and is endorsed by the California Republican Party.

Your constant statement that "Arnold is not a Republican" just demostrates that you ignore facts and reality.

[calcowgirl]

Note the poll is of likely voters, so it's probably fairly realistic.

500 likely voters, 8 months before the election.
Yep. I'm sure there predictions are absolutely right on! /s

[FOG724]

Your constant statement that "Arnold is not a Republican" just demostrates that you ignore facts and reality.

Well now, isn't that the pot calling the kettle black.

[Tim Long]

Who cares. The CA GOP has been ruined anyway. Except for Jim Gilchrist. I really hope he runs against Feinstein.

[old republic]

Jim Gilchrist is not a Republican. He is an American Independent/Constitution Party candidate.

[Ma3lst0rm]

Yes and if the Republican party doesn't fight as if they want to maintain governance then they will lose to the weakest emptyheaded crew of Democrats we've seen in a long time. The party is laid bare and is openly Anti-American, Anti-Soldier, and Anti-tax cuts. We couldn't ask for better opponents if we designed them ourselves.

[Tim Long]

Sorry, I thought he was going for the GOP nomination this time.

[old republic]

I was just saying that he was an American Independent (Constitution Party) in the last election. He originally was a GOP member, and probably would have run under a GOP when he ran for Congressman, but the primary system is setup so that the chances of winning the endorsement of the party are slim. Because he suspected that he would have been defeated in the primary, so he decided to run as an American Independent when he ran for Congress. However, I don't know what his party will be in the next election.