The rule of thumb says that the incumbent should poll over 50%.
I hope in the coming months Arnold's numbers will go up.
The US Chamber of Commerce started some good ads for Arnold. At least they are not waiting until it's too late, which it the main reason the Special Election Propositions went down in flames, the unions ran nasty ads unopposed.
Yes and if the Republican party doesn't fight as if they want to maintain governance then they will lose to the weakest emptyheaded crew of Democrats we've seen in a long time. The party is laid bare and is openly Anti-American, Anti-Soldier, and Anti-tax cuts. We couldn't ask for better opponents if we designed them ourselves.