Posted on 03/26/2006 11:12:27 AM PST by LdSentinal
Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell holds a double-digit lead in Ohio’s GOP gubernatorial primary race in the first Dispatch Poll before the May 2 election.
While Attorney General Jim Petro trails by 11 points, nearly a third of Republican voters remain undecided. That means Petro must win two out of every three of those uncommitted voters just to draw even as the candidates fire up their TV ad war over the final five weeks of the campaign.
Blackwell’s margin might help explain his decisions not to debate Petro and to limit media access. The front-runner will face a crucial decision as the primary approaches on whether to spend the bulk of his campaign cash to counter a probable all-or-nothing Petro onslaught or to save some money for the fall campaign.
On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland has a commanding 43-point lead over former state Rep. Bryan Flannery with 41 percent saying they are undecided. That means Strickland probably can preserve most of his cash reserves, although he is currently airing his first TV ad.
Other highlights from the poll:
• Republican Sen. Mike DeWine and Democratic U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown are easily besting little-known challengers within their parties, apparently setting up a fall showdown for DeWine’s seat that will be nationally watched.
• Voters have yet to make up their minds on down-ticket races, with large majorities undecided. One exception: Auditor Betty D. Montgomery is the favorite of 57 percent of GOP voters to reclaim her old job as attorney general.
• Treasurer Jennette Bradley, who has held her current office since January 2005 after serving two years as Gov. Bob Taft’s lieutenant governor, is getting support from only 16 percent of Republicans, just 3 points more than Sandra O’Brien, Ashtabula County auditor. O’Brien is challenging Bradley’s ties to Taft and her stance on such issues as abortion, domestic partner benefits and guns.
The mail poll of 2,894 registered Democratic voters and 2,874 registered Republicans voters from March 15 through Friday has a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points.
Republican poll participant David Grubb, 55, a financial adviser from Galloway, is still deciding between Blackwell and Petro.
"I like them both so far, and I’m just going to see how it plays out and what comes up next," Grubb said. "I was worried when Petro started advertising so early because you just get swamped with those (ads)."
He said he has been interested in watching Blackwell reach out to the religious right.
"I want to see how straight they are with the churches. Blackwell is hitting the crowd he’s wanting. I’ve got no problem with that, but I just want to make sure he means what he says."
Also watching and waiting is Republican Charles Wertz, pastor of the Church of Christ in Christian Union in Madison County’s South Solon. Wertz, 41, said both Blackwell and Petro appear to be men of integrity who have a "Christianized world view" compared with a "secularized world view."
"It’s not a choice of which one is the lesser of two evils but which one is the better of two goods," Wertz said. "That’s somewhat unusual today."
But all the talk of religion along the campaign trail bothers Tony Kaufmann, 68, of Powell, a Republican who doesn’t like either Blackwell or Petro. He wrote "anybody but them" on his poll form.
"It shouldn’t be a political issue," said Kaufmann, a construction contractor. "I’m a conservative, but religion should not be something you want to out-conservative someone on."
Blackwell’s ties with religious groups also worry Jack Hart, of Waverly, who said the secretary of state is "too much into the churches. I think there needs to be a strong separation between church and government."
Hart, 52, a Republican said he might cross party lines and support Strickland.
Backing the Lisbon congressman for sure is Sara E. Williams, 73, who lives near Chillicothe.
"I just like his attitude," she said. "When you ask him a question, he doesn’t go, ‘umm;’ he answers it in a straightforward way."
Blackwell leads in most regions of Ohio, including almost a 3-to-1 margin in his home Cincinnati area. Petro leads by 5 points in the Columbus media market and is in a virtual tie in northwest Ohio.
A key to Blackwell’s edge is his 12-point lead in the Cleveland area, Petro’s former turf that is home to more than a third of the registered Republicans in the state.
While the down-ticket races are still up for grabs, several have clear leaders:
• State Sen. Marc Dann, a Warren-area Democrat who has been an outspoken critic of Republican handling of scandals at the Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation, holds a 14-point edge over former Cleveland Law Director Subodh Chandra for attorney general.
• Judge William O’Neill of the 11 th District Court of Appeals is up by 13 points over Judge A.J. Wagner of Montgomery County Common Pleas Court for a Supreme Court nomination. A second race for the high court is a dead heat between former Sen. Ben Espy of Columbus and longtime Juvenile Court Judge Peter M. Sikora of Cleveland.
Dispatch reporters Catherine Candisky, Alan Johnson, Mark Niquette, Jonathan Riskind, Jim Siegel and Jack Torry contributed to this story.
He has my vote.
I am here
"still deciding between Blackwell and Petro.
"I like them both so far"
The senate vote matters A TON this year. Every seat is going to be vital. Every seat held can deny the Democrats power.
If I recall correctly, didn't the Dispatch poll have Kerry winning Ohio?
That's exactly right. No matter what we think of our Pub Senators or Reps, this is no time to stay home in protest.
Blackwell. I want to see how he does as a governor because I think he would make a great "real" first black president.
Here's the lates from Ohio. Ping away!
Ideally, Mike DeWine would be retiring and Blackwell would be the front-runner to succeed him.
However, I'd gladly settle for Blackwell as Governor rather than Senator, or perhaps Governor then Senator (when George Voinovich retires).
As for President, it's very intriguing but too soon to say.
I am voting for Blackwell, if for no other reason than to tweak the Democrats.
Saw that article. Blackwell has 76% of black republican votes. Count on him to break the democratic monopoly in the general election.
I've seen Ken Blackwell speak several times, he is the real deal.
The Columbus Pisspatch had to throw that in there, didn't they?
He's going to turn this state around. (Just met him personally last week. IMPRESSIVE!)
Intriguing, indeed!
I've met him a couple times, he is the real deal.
The real deal, down to the core.
Any conservative, IMO, who doesn't get solidly behind this man, is missing the boat.......BIG time.
The tax and spend pseudos running this state into the ground need HELP. And Ken Blackwell is strong enough to lead them.......and US, out of this mess.
That's why I'm going to be working hard for Ken Blackwell.
Me too. Caveman?? :)
My people were the first conservatives. Unlike johnny come lately Atilla the Hun, who was a bit of a metrosexual.
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