Posted on 03/22/2006 8:38:55 PM PST by hocndoc
Zogby Poll Reveals: Abortion Tough Issue for Hillary Clinton & '06 Congressional Democrats
LOS ANGELES, March 22 /PRNewswire/ --
Federal candidates who make abortion rights an important part of their election platform this year and in 2008 may find themselves swimming against the current of American political thinking, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows.
The survey, commissioned by Associated Television News and The O'Leary Report, included 30,117 respondents in the 48 contiguous states, and was conducted from March 10-14, 2006. It carries a margin of error of +/- 0.6 percentage points.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20030425/ATNLOGO )
The poll included 20 questions on abortion pertaining to activity on the state or federal level. Analysis of the survey included matching the responses against those respondents who said they'd support the two leading candidates for the 2008 presidential contest: Democrat Senator Hillary Clinton (33%) and Republican Senator John McCain (50%). More analysis was conducted by matching the poll respondents who indicated that they'd support a Democrat (42%) or a Republican (40%) for Congress in the 2006 election.
Pollster John Zogby noted that "while much of the poll's findings suggest Democrats will have trouble gaining a political advantage by using the emotionally charged issue of abortion, voters are still evenly split on whether the U.S. Constitution guarantees a woman's right to choose to have an abortion." Forty-six percent of the respondents agreed that there was a constitutional guarantee while 45% disagreed.
Associated Television News President Brad O'Leary, who commissioned the poll, added that much of the results may "spell disaster for Democrats who try to run on the abortion issue. The abortion issue is this year's political 'third rail' for congressional Democrats and for Hillary Clinton in 2008," said O'Leary. O'Leary speculated that the recent confirmation hearings for Justices Alito and Roberts and may have galvanized undecided voters into the pro-life camp, and noted that 71% of voters disagreed that the Senate should confirm only pro-choice Supreme Court Justices, while just 17% agreed with the statement.
Asked whether respondents favored using a filibuster of Supreme Court nominees because of their position on abortion, only 28% agreed with the tactic, while 59% opposed it.
Abortion may become to Democrats what Social Security was to Republicans during the 1970's and 1980's -- a "third rail" that caused the GOP continual political trouble.
"There is absolutely no way a presidential or a congressional candidate running for office can grow their base if they insist on championing the abortion issue," Mr. O'Leary said. The poll found a majority of respondents on 16 of the 20 questions took an anti-abortion position, including:
- Parental notification laws that were recently upheld by the Supreme Court (55% support for girls 18 yrs. & younger; 69% for girls 16 yrs. old & younger; only 36% and 23% disagree respectively)
- Abortion ends a human life (59% agree; 29% disagree)
- The prohibition of federal funds for abortions abroad (69% agree with the prohibition; 21% disagree)
- Abortion because of the sex of the fetus (86% agree should be illegal; 10% disagree should be illegal)
- Requiring insurance plans to cover abortions where the life of the mother is not endangered (56% disagree with such a requirement; 12% agree)
- When life begins (50% believe it begins at conception; 19% believe life begins at birth)
- A new federal partial-birth abortion bill (50% want to see another bill; 39% don't want to see another bill)
- Requiring counseling about a mother's options before undergoing an abortion (55% agree with such a counseling requirement; 37% disagree)
- A 24-hour waiting period (56% agree with waiting period; 37% disagree)
- Federal & state financing of abortions for poor women (51% disagree with financing; 37% disagree)
- Laws that charge a person who kills a pregnant woman with two murders (64% agree with such laws; 23% disagree)
The poll results suggest a shift in the electorate away from abortion rights over the past decade, Mr. O'Leary said. They also suggest that congressional Democrats who champion abortion rights could lose as much as 20 percent support from the electorate.
The issue may affect the 2008 presidential contest, the poll shows, as 60% to 80% percent of Hillary Clinton's support on most of the 20 abortion questions clearly comes from those voters who favor abortion rights. Conversely, 75% to 90% percent of those voters who support John McCain take a pro-life position on the questions.
Following are tables on these 20 poll questions and how they break down among voters who say they will support a Republican or Democrat in the 2006 Congressional elections and among Hillary Clinton and John McCain supporters for the 2008 presidential election is attached.
Q11. Do you agree or disagree that a woman's right to choose to have an abortion is guaranteed by the US Constitution?
Agree - Total 46% Disagree - 45% Not Sure 10%
Note that 40% of the Respondents claimed that they would vote for a Republican in November 2006, 42% plan to vote for a Dem as their Federal Congressman.
We need to win the voters and convince them that this issue should trump others. The only reason these days to vote Democrat is to support abortion and some hand-out that you're already getting.
These are some fantastic numbers. Especially when we know the sample size and that the Dems out numbered the Republicans 42 to 40
Look at the numbers who believe life begins at conception, who support parental consent, and who believe that abortion kills a human being.
If Hillary wanted to make a crazy, shrewed move - she could come out against abortion.
Enough people would be fooled, she would win the electon.... and then she'd proceed to promote full infanticide once in office.
Also, if I wanted to make an egregious spelling mistake, I'd type "shrewd" like a complete ass.....
One thing seems out of place in this poll:
"Q11. Do you agree or disagree that a woman's right to choose to have an abortion is guaranteed by the US Constitution?
Agree - Total 46% Disagree - 45% Not Sure 10%"
In every case the pro-life position has either a mojority or a plurality and suddenly it is trailing the pro-abortion decision in this question (even if by a point)? I do not see how people see the Constituion guarenteeing abortion "rights." Where do they read that?
"Mojority" as in "Big mo"!
She already has said abortion should be infrequent and that's as close as she'll come.
"Enough people would be fooled, she would win the electon.... and then she'd proceed to promote full infanticide once in office."
Enough already have been fooled.
Even the liberals.
She can try , but it won't work . And I don't care how you spell shrewd, it still pertains to Hitlary . I love it , now they will try and push for more gun control, instead of abortion , just like their master Billy Boy tried to do ....bring it on Dims .....
"a scolding nagging bad-tempered woman," a shrew. Fits Hillary like a glove, don't ya think.
The Democratic party has no choice - they must become pro-life to survive as a political entity. By the end of this decade, American culture will be immensely against abortion - and not just by political sentiment.
Sen Clinton will have to oppose abortion to survive politically as well, but not before 2008. Her constituents will force her to change her position as American culture opposes it more strongly.
I'm convinced that these are the brainwashed who believe that if the SCOTUS says it, it is "established law."
But, the majority believe that life begins at conception and/or a human life is ended by abortion - so the feet are kicked out from under Roe, which based so much of it's justification on the lie that "we don't know."
No. I like your original spelling. What else could you expect from a shrew?
The results of the poll are great, the only think that scares me is that the poll is by Zogby!
These numbers are great news, and I expect they will only continue to get better.
The pro-deathers are going to abort themselves right out of the debate.
This new generation of young 'uns are much more conservative than the boomers - and many of them don't like the fact that one third of their generation has been snuffed out.
The pro-lifers will continue to have their babies (live babies) and will teach them about the value of life.
I'm heartened by the pro-life opinions of the young adults I've talked to. However, it seems that they have lost the connection between that nascent life and the actions that began the life.
I don't believe that there is anything wrong with a married couple using non-abortifacient contraception to limit and space the number of children they have.
But I am convinced that we don't need to believe in G_d and sin to see and understand the harm done to lives and hearts by sex out side of marriage, serial partners for short periods of time and a false sense that love comes after sex. It never ceases to amaze me when I hear even some of the most conservative young adults dismiss the pain of homosexuality and long-term relationships without marriage.
Most likely, the same influence that led them to be pro-life - observing what the generations before them have done - leads them to have this attitude. One young woman answered concerns about her children growing up with divorced parents with, "My mother did okay!" How do you answer that without offending? It was just risky making the first comment. I do wonder how her daddy did.
PollyAnna that I am, I hope the baby steps we are seeing will build to more support for monogamy in marriage, which i see as the healthiest and happiest life.
Her base WOULD NOT STAND FOR IT! We are talking NARAL and Emily's list and MoveOn.org- come on! They would go ballistic!
They recruit.
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