Posted on 03/19/2006 9:11:39 AM PST by NormsRevenge
Yes, we've been here before. An elected San Diego politician resigns. A special election is called. Candidates (many of whom no one has really heard of) come out of the woodwork to run for the unexpectedly open seat. Ballot-tested – and weary – veteran San Diegan voters trot to the polls once more.
The big question this time around is exactly just how much history will repeat itself when it comes to filling Randy “Duke” Cunningham's tainted shoes.
The race to replace in the 50th Congressional District seems to be playing out a lot like last year's mayoral contest in San Diego, where Democrat Donna Frye came in first in the July primary against a divided field of GOP mayoral wannabes, but lost to Republican Jerry Sanders in the fall runoff. Such is likely to be the fate of Democrat Francine Busby's quixotic quest to succeed a Republican in a district where Republicans outnumber democrats three to two and which has voted Republican pretty much since the first tract homes began driving out coyotes. But ...
This is a congressional election during the incumbent president's sixth year in office. The sort of year the president's party usually loses congressional seats – and lots of them. Compound this with the president's falling popularity, scandals surrounding the GOP in Washington (and, much closer to home, with Cunningham himself) and rising voter dissatisfaction over a range of issues, from botched hurricane relief to abortive port deals to bogged-down wars, and Republicans might be advised to not count their 50th District chicken before it's hatched.
On April 11, voters in the 50th get to chose from the crowded field of 18 candidates. (For the record, if no candidate gets a majority of the April vote – a bet you can take to the bank – then the top vote-getter of each party will face off in a June 6 runoff. Whoever wins will fill the seat for the rest of the year. But in November, the party winners of the June 6 primary – held concurrent with the runoff vote – square off to see who will hold the seat for the next two years. Confused? Get in line.)
In reality, though, there are only four candidates who have a real shot at making the June runoff.
On the Democratic side, there's Cardiff School Board member and previous Cunningham challenger Francine Busby. Winning in a special election, where a shortened campaign season cuts the time candidates have to get their face, name and message out to the voters – few of which will show up to vote anyway – ultimately requires three things: money, experience and pre-existing name recognition.
No serious Republican was even considering challenging Cunningham for what looked like an assured re-election before the dimensions of the scandal started becoming known last year. Busby, however, has been campaigning continually since 2004 (when she lost to Cunningham but, with her 38 percent of the vote, did better than any other congressional challenger in the county). In that time, she has amassed a million-dollar-plus war chest, appeared before just about every Democratic and community group in the district, and secured the endorsement of every prominent Democrat between here and Alpha Centauri. Just two weeks ago, Busby was tapped to deliver the Democrats' national radio rebuttal to the president's weekly radio address – quite a publicity plum and indication of the credibility that national Democrats give her candidacy.
Now the Republican candidates are scrambling to make up for lost time. The problem is, there simply isn't enough time (T-24 days and counting) for political newbies and no-names to win the hearts and votes of the GOP partisans likely to vote.
Last summer, millionaire businessman Steve Francis tried – and failed – to buy his way to electoral victory in the San Diego mayor's race. This time around, not one but three millionaire businessmen are trying to do so. Of these, Alan Uke, who helped bring the Midway to town, has the most local political currency. Richard Earnest's year as mayor of Del Mar (back in 1999) gives him some local recognition, but none that seems to penetrate very far east of Interstate 5. Rancho Santa Fe money manager Eric Roach and Del Mar real estate investor Bill Hauf just bring a lot of money to the campaign. All three lack name recognition, significant political experience and broad district support to make their vanity candidacies truly viable.
The real race on the Republican side is between three established politicos: Surfer and former congressman turned lobbyist Brian Bilbray, social conservative champion and state senator Bill Morrow, and former state Assemblyman turned radio pundit and recall advocate Howard Kaloogian. All have some roots in the 50th District, with each having represented parts of it in either Sacramento or Washington. All are campaigning on essentially the same platform – fiscal frugality, lower taxes, pro war on terror, anti-illegal-immigration and pro-social-conservative values. The major difference between them has been which issues they've emphasized.
Bilbray has been defining his candidacy on illegal immigration, trumpeting his endorsement by the local law enforcement community (including the county sheriff and district attorney) and by the National Border Patrol Council, which represents border agents. But he has been mostly silent on red-state-meat, social conservative issues such as abortion and gay marriage, preferring to focus on his past record as a lawmaker and his endorsements by big league Republicans like Newt Gingrich. Morrow and Kaloogian, while taking an equally tough stance on immigration (touting their own endorsement by various factions of the Minutemen) have been directly appealing to social conservatives, pushing their credentials as true Reagan Republicans while running against the Washington culture of corruption (thereby implicitly painting Bilbray with that same brush.)
Given the divided Republican field, Busby is likely to win the most votes of any candidate on April 11, though short of an outright majority. Bilbray, with his established name recognition and support base, his appeal to independents and moderate Republicans based on his record as a moderate conservative, and the likelihood of Morrow and Kaloogian splitting the social conservative vote, is probably best situated to emerge as the Republican choice. Given the history of the district, this also makes him likely to be returned to Congress come June. But there are still enough “ifs” in all of this to make the final outcome less than foreordained.
If Morrow and Kaloogian successfully frame Bilbray as being a liberal in Republican clothing, they might be able to rally party conservatives in numbers large enough to make one of them (most likely Morrow, with his bigger war chest and political base as a state senator) the party nominee. Even if Bilbray makes the runoff, successfully painting him as conservative-lite now might cause social conservatives to stay home in June, helping Busby.
Likewise, if the Republican winner in April ends up being perceived by independents (25 percent of the district) and moderate Republicans as having gone too far to the rhetorical right to win the primary, they might drift into the Busby column come June. And if Busby, freed of any real challenge from the left in this primary, can frame herself as a centrist on the issues – as she already has tried to do on the war (stabilize Iraq and then withdraw) and immigration (no amnesty and build a high-tech border fence) – she might be able to keep a conservative Republican from grabbing a majority in the runoff.
So, while the outcome of the race for the 50th is likely to be a repeat of recent history, don't be too surprised if things turn out unexpectedly. After all, in San Diego as of late, the unexpected has come to be expected.
In depth analysis... too bad Cali is a lost cause or this election might matter. Still you gotta do what you can do.
Go Howard!
http://www.kaloogianforcongress.com/
Interesting analysis.
At least the voters in the 50th district have good choices.
There were 6 FReepers including myself along with around
25 Protest Warriors countering the 1,000 Marxist at the
large anti war rally yesterday here in San Diego.
There were folks there also with Democrat Busby signs.
There are so many who post on FR, the malcontent types who I never see at our counter rallys which we also hold at least once or twice a month to counter the code pinkos near the Navy Hospital.
This is why I can't view these folks who post on FR who are all mouth and no action and dare tell me what candidate should win as serious.
I applaud your activism. It's like anything else, a good idea will be met by eight cries for inaction or poor excuses for not participating. I listen to KFMB online and hear all the political ads, so I know it's heavily contested.
You have the voice for all of us. Make a good choice.
I'm sorry, I'm usually in legislator's offices trying to get them to vote the right way. How dare you assume that your form of activism is better or more important than mine.
Appreciate your comments
Sorry if I touched a nerve
Wonderful!
I love how you put your heart into this, SoCalPol.
In-your-face activism in a local race like the 50th definately has impact, like on the nightly news.
Francine Busby's ads are all over the TV and radio in San Diego. She's full of it, of course, but her message is targeted and will have an impact. Anything to counter her hype is helpful.
I agree about the serial malcontents who live to see their words in print!
Kaloogian is great on the issues but his time is past. The GOP lead recall that resulted in RINO Arnold is a distant memory now and didn't accomplish anything but maintain the status quo. Right now, there is a conservative already representing 2/3rds of that Congressional seat who fights for us every day.
GO MORROW!
Hey, thanks. Yesterday was like the 60s revisited with all the anti war crap and impeach Bush.
I went toe to toe with several who tried to get in my face.
The Malcontents and Prima Donnas who are all mouth and don't get involved in countering these Marxists are going to wonder what happened when the Dems get in.
I have several relatives who have served in Iraq and will be going back. I like to hope they see supporters of them besides the anti war marxists.
You are SO GOOD at that, and fearless.
I'll never forget that stunt the code pinko's pulled in Santa Monica, with that 2 story vertical banner they draped.
You are literally up against the most virulent hate-mongers imaginable out there, and you do this a LOT!
It takes actually being there to realize what the Marxist opposition is like, with them literally yelling in your face.
It makes FR seem like a sandbox.
Thank you for the ping!
I know who I like!
You bet. And we went from San Diego to Santa Monica for that one. Glad you didn't mentioned about our drive by them when we left.
LOL!
":^] <-- zzzzippp ... me lips are sealed
Me too!
We'll see if the folks in the 50th agree.
They get to vote.
We do not. :(
Yup, unfortunately.
Hey, maybe the losers can move down here and take on Filner!
Stick Morrow where the sun doesn't shine, he's a go along to get along POS.
He crapped on me in 94 when he was in the Assembly and I won't forget it.
I hope you are killed after you are 55 and your death is declared to be from natural causes, because that's what the law states, your family csn thank Bill Morrow.
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