Well, this isn't Vermont, fortunately (and who knows, maybe Gen. Rainville will return their House seat to the GOP column). A 6% Bush district in NY is a heavily GOP seat. You're too pessimistic on our seats, dude ! Even Barone says the critical mass for the 'Rats isn't there yet.
I think maybe I have gotten you a little paranoid about me William, which is unfortunate. There is an iron wall between my psephology and ideology. They are two totally different things. In any event, whether the Pubbie is a moderate, or moderate conservative (hard right candidates really don't exist much in New York), makes less difference, than the amount of money raised, the quality of the candidate and his or her credentials, and reputation in the district, how the local newspapers view the candidate, and the effectiveness of the candidate's presentation. Is the guy smart and articulate and likable, or viewed as something of a drone hack? Cheers.
The ideal candidate for this district would be protectionist, pro-farm subsidies, yet conservative on social issues. In other words, a Peter King who likes guns.