Posted on 03/17/2006 4:36:15 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
A few comments on your Rat target list, which makes sense but which I'd marginally quibble with.
Larry Sabato thinks some of your likely-Dem districts
(I believe Melancon-LA and Salazar-CO) are competitive.
I agree Marshall isn't safe in Georgia with former Congressman Collins challenging. But didn't I read that he's looking good in the polls right now? Ordinarily that wouldn't discourage me this early, but Collins is a known guy.
If Edwards won in Texas in '04, it's hard to see him losing this time.
The Vermont seat will stay Rat -- this isn't a year in which Rats and Rat leaners will vote GOP just to get a "first woman."
Boswell in Iowa has been in for a while, is opposed (I believe) by a guy who lost to him before, and Iowa doesn't like war.
Bean should win, even though Phil Crane was a weak opponent last time. The Chicago suburbs have been going south on us for ten years or more, and I assume that trend hasn't changed.
Matheson in Utah has a great GOP district that should never have elected him, but won quite handily last time, if memory serves. You're right to call him relatively safe.
My own Dem list would be:
Tossup: Ohio 6 (Strickland)
Lean Rat: Texas 17 (Edwards), Illinois 8 (Bean), Georgia 8 (Marshall), Louisiana 3 (Melancon), Colorado 3 (Salazar).
Likely Rat: Sanders vacancy, Boswell, Matheson, Moore, Barrow, Larsen, Mollohan.
I cannot speak for the "watch" list, not knowing which potential candidates may be in the wings.
I am intrigued by two of your races and would like further enlightenment on them: Spratt in South Carolina (Cheney just campaigned for his opponent, right?) and Pomeroy in N. Dak.
What is Spratt's specific vulnerability, or his opponent's specific strength? South Carolina is so conservative, it seems worth a look. Ditto North Dakota -- any prospect of a serious challenger there?
To me Hawaii just seems like a more variegated, tropical version of Vermont.
We want "free" health care.
The government should take care of us.
We're not only unique, but better than the rest of the United States.
A bunch of discredited, bizarre leftist and identity politics nostrums that make for an oppressively high cost of living, confiscatory tax rates, disharmony, and general inertia.
Minor correction. The VT hasn't gone 'Rat since 1958. It's been a Socialist seat since 1990.
OK, I already commented on Bean, Marshall, the open Vermont seat (which is trending down), and the Strickland open seat (which was lately in Toss Up before this just-breaking check bouncing & tax delinquency debacle). So, lemme comment on the others you raise.
1) Salazar appears likely to face the same opponent (Greg Walcher) that he beat in 2004. Why would the outcome be different in this far worse year for the GOP? Colorado also appears to be trending Dem as a whole.
2) Melancon is really the only seat that is trending up the list right now in my view, and may very well end up in Lean D soon. However, his response to Katrina has been very well received, there is reason to think that the population displacements will help him, and he won the open seat in 2004. What has changed for the voters to fire him? Now, he does have a relatively excellent opponent, but I just don't quite see it yet. Also, Louisiana simply does not like to vote out incumbents. When was the last time an incumbent lost down there?
3) Yeah, I agree with you on Edwards, but that should tell you how likely I think any of the seats below him are to switch. Nonetheless, the GOP opposition is not nearly as divided as in 2004 and his opponent seems much less problematic. However, with the more Dem-favoring year and without GWB at the top of the ballot, I think it balances out to much the same outcome, which was a slight Edwards victory in a very heavy GOP district.
4) I may have Matheson rated too high, but none of the seats below him seem in more serious threat of switching. However, so far as I'm concerned, the seats ranked 8-12 (Matheson, Moore, Barrow, Salazar, and Spratt) are practically a coin toss. I would not object to any different ordering for those five seats. In other words, Spratt might be at 8 with Matheson at 12 or any arrangement in between, so far as I'm concerned.
5) Spratt is facing a well-funded challenger with a united GOP opposition (the other GOPer, Park Gillespie, dropped out of the primary to join forces with Ralph Norman) in a strongly GOP district. This is Spratt's first serious challenge in a decade. The opponent is a St. Rep. with a reasonably high-profile, made even higher by the national GOP's focus on the race. So, maybe. It's still rated well down there because the flip-side is that Spratt hasn't done anything to get fired. It's just that the D after his name is contrary to the district and he has a good challenger. We'll see.
6) Right now Pomeroy is perfectly safe, because he has no announced opponent, but the potential opponents exploring bids include the ND Attorney General (Wayne Stenehjem), the ND Tax Commissioner (Rick Clayburgh), and the ND Insurance Commissioner (Jim Poolman). If any of them enter, especially Stenehjem, this could very well jump up into the Toss Up or near Toss Up range.
They invest in these candidates-even if they know they'll probably lose-if only to aggravate the GOP, and force the party to deplete its resources.
It's astounding when you think of how many Plains states have Democratic senators.
And not only Democrats, but extremely liberal Democrats at that.
The GOP won't spend a dime in New York City-rebuilding the relatively strong party that we had in at least some boroughs years ago-simply because of its location.
There have been open seats in Queens that we could have easily won, if the party machine had just chucked in a few thousand dollars, and seats in my neighborhood-the most conservative part of Brooklyn-that we should have won, if not for the inertia of the Republican Party.
Of the other three Watch List seats:
1) I don't see much reason why the open Brown seat (OH-13) should be competitive, especially in light of the pathetic state of the Ohio GOP this cycle, but it appears the GOP will field the best possible candidate. Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin is a proven vote-getter in a D-leaning blue collar city and most of the pundits actually have this race rated higher - CQ has it in Lean Dem for instance. I'm more of a wait & see kind of guy, so I'm keeping it in my Watch List until I see some decent GOP fundraising or polls that indicate a Republican can win a district that went for Kerry by 55.23% in 2004. I seriously doubt it should even be on the list, but since the collecive punditry thinks otherwise I'm watching it.
2) Brian Higgins won the open NY-27 seat with just 50.7% to 49.3% last time around. That immediately puts it on the radar screen. Moreover, the former Congressman's son, NY St. Assemblyman Jack Quinn III is exploring a bid, so at the least NY-27 is on the Watch List pending Quinn's intentions.
3) I'd be rather shocked if Darlene Hooley faces much of a problem in OR-05, but every cycle this one's supposed to be competitive (and every cycle she wins anyway). In any case, she only won with 52.9% in 2004 and she supposedly has another decent challenger, so that at least merits watching for now. In fact, I may be lowballing the GOP odds just because so many past races that were supposed to shape up there more or less didn't.
You know, district-shopping?
The New York GOP seems to be in full meltdown mode. It's not a pretty picture..
I left out Boswell in my comments above. This is not one of Boswell's past opponents. Former St. Sen. GOP Pres. Jeff Lamberti is easily the strongest challenger Boswell has had. He's well-funded and moreover Boswell was MIA for several months due to health concerns. However, with Boswell evidently in full recovery and back to his Congress work and the campaign trail, this one may very well be trending down. This is also a total toss-up district: 49.69% Bush to 49.60% Kerry in 2004.
To say the least.
Actually, Rick Clayburgh is no longer state Tax Commissioner. He was recently appointed to the state Supreme Court. He has no interest in Federal office anymore.
You're right to point out Leonard Boswell. There is another issue, albeit one that no one feels comfortable discussing. Boswell is aging and has had severe health problems recently. A few months back, he had a very serious operation. So there may be voters questioning his ability to carry on his job responsibilities.
You guys are tracking a lot of trees, but y'all have a tendency to under-report the forest.
The party in power tends to lose seats. Will the GOP lose too many to hold power? The trees are supposed to define that particular forest. Can y'all try to define forest impact of each speculation for each tree?
Usually a name like that is a family name, such as his mother's maiden name. It's traditional, not "tard".
Bush's current approval rating is 36% in the Gallup Poll (with 60% disapproval). Clinton's approval rating was 46% in the Gallup Poll on Election Day 1994 (with 46% disapproval). That's all that need be said about the forest. The rest is much sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Or am I confusing him with someone else?
He ran for Congress in 2002, losing to Congressman Earl Pomeroy by 52% to 48%.
Thanks.
I usually get most of this information through the Almanac of American Politics, which is an invaluable resource for political junkies.
"A socialist seat since 1990."
As I said -- Rat.
While I can imagine a "socialist" member of Congress with integrity who at times broke with the Rats, Mr. Sanders is simply a left-wing (i.e., typical) Rat. He has the full support of the Rat party, and will continue to be with the Rats when he goes to the Senate. Just because he (accurately) uses a more colorful term for himself than the typical "liberal" or "moderate" is no reason to pretend he isn't a Rat.
Obviously if a state continually elects an openly professed socialist to Congress, it is a Rat state and will elect a Rat when he leaves.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.