Posted on 03/17/2006 4:36:15 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
He will announce on Monday that's he's running and Meier was once the Oneida County executive. He's not a southern conservative, but he's more conservative than Boehlert. Then again, most people are more conservative than Boehlert.
Glad to see you go, congressman.
CQ is needlessly panicking (or deliberately boostering the 'Rat chances). I'd call a district that went from 1% Bush/GOP to 6% Bush in 4 years as trending Republican, wouldn't you ? Now, if it went the other way, then you'd be on to something. We'll still hold this seat (even if the 'Rat gets to the mid 40s).
I think your predictions re: congressional seats are right on the money, unfortunately.
Do you see any strong prospect of GOP House pickups, other than Ohio 6 (Strickland vacancy)?
Hey, stop using such high-falutin' words, we have to go running to our dictionaries. :-P
Right now, I give the Pubbies better odds of picking up IL-06 (Bean), GA-08 (Marshall), and VT-AL (Sanders) than most observers do. I think at this time the first two are toss-ups and the third Leans D.
CQ in general is more optimistic than Antiguv and Torie are on GOP prospects in the House. I am quite confident that Anti and Torie are closer to the mark at present. How's THAT for hubris? :)
I agree. The GOP will pick up one Dem seat odds on at present. It will be the Marshall seat, probably. The mood is ugly out there in well to do big city Yankee suburbs (as opposed to exurbs). Thus if I had to guess, Bean will survive.
The front-runner for the Democrat nomination is Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri, a formidible candidate. If he is the nominee, I predict he'll poll in the high 40's. But he won't win unless Republicans nominate a poor candidate.
Have you seen any polling data for the VT seat (ostensibly Welch vs. Rainville) ? Interesting to realize that in 150 years, only one Democrat has ever won the At-Large seat, and that was back in 1958 with William Meyer. Meyer's wacky son lives here in Nashville, a hippie-relic radical Earth-firster type (has to be in his late 60s). From what I understand, pop was not too proud of him.
Bush got a nice bump in New York and adjacent places in 2004 as compared to 2000. It was the 9-11 and Catholic belt. It is all gone now, and then some. Gone. Iraq, Katrina, competence, boredom, etc.
Dubya upped it by 5% overall to a disappointing 40%, but it wasn't much of a substantial boost. He didn't even match his dad's 1988 performance (the highest for a Republican in the past 20 years) of 48%. The better question is whether the 'Rats are doing better in Sherry's district at the grassroots. As I said, I'm not in panic mode, yet. This district remains simply too historically Republican.
Opps! Make that IL-08 for the Bean seat (IL-06 is the open Hyde seat). Either David McSweeney or Kathy Salvi are gonna be really tough challengers for Melissa Bean. They've got a lot of money and good profiles for the district. I think Bean might squeak through, but if so then because of the national mood. Bean also has a leftwing moonbat (Bill Scheurer) running at her left flank with an independent candidacy.
As for Jim Marshall, the GA-08 campaign is practically an incumbent versus incumbent campaign with former Congressman Mac Collins. That'll be a tough hold for him I'm sure, assuming he holds.
And then, in the open, at-large Vermont seat, the Pubbies have just about their ideal candidate in Gen. Martha Raineville, but the Dems got a big break recently when Progressive Party candidate David Zuckerman announced he wouldn't run and endorsed Democrat Peter Welch, so that one is on the verge of slipping down the ratings. If Zuckerman had announced, I would've moved it to Toss Up.
To my knowledge there is no polling of the Vermont House seat as of yet.
Rainville, not Raineville..
Not to self: The Preview button is your friend!
LOL! I'm gonna go for a walk..
I made the same Robin Hood joke that field did 20+ comments ago.
Maybe I should read more than the first three of them from the top of the thread next time.
:-)
Is there an echo in here ? :-P
I'm too lazy too look through more than the first three comments.
You don't get over 10,000 posts just by reading.
:P
Then again, I suppose I could have assumed the Robin Hood reference would have been made already.
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