I think your predictions re: congressional seats are right on the money, unfortunately.
Do you see any strong prospect of GOP House pickups, other than Ohio 6 (Strickland vacancy)?
Right now, I give the Pubbies better odds of picking up IL-06 (Bean), GA-08 (Marshall), and VT-AL (Sanders) than most observers do. I think at this time the first two are toss-ups and the third Leans D.