Posted on 03/16/2006 10:26:28 AM PST by TexasCajun
As experts weigh what's happening in Iraq, Baghdadis just know things are getting worse
BAGHDAD, IRAQ - Deep within the Pentagon, they're trying to piece together a picture of an Iraqi civil war. What would it look like? Donald Rumsfeld asks.
Here on the streets of Baghdad, it looks like hell.
Corpses, coldly executed, are turning up by the minibus-load. Mortar shells are casually lobbed into rival neighborhoods. Car bombs are killing people wholesale, while assassins hunt them down one by one.
Is it civil war? "In Iraq it is no longer a matter of definition — 'civil war' or 'war' or 'violence' or 'terrorism.' It is all of the above," said one familiar with all of the above, Beirut scholar-politician Farid Khazen, a witness to Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.
Phebe Marr, a historian of Iraq, hesitates to put a name to what's happening today, a chaotic mix of anti-U.S. resistance, Sunni-Shiite communal bloodshed and Islamic-extremist terrorism. "But it's civil strife," said the Washington-based Marr, "and it's getting extremely serious."
More than just words
It's only a term from a dictionary, defined as a war between opposing groups of citizens of the same country. But once media headlines begin referring to the "Iraq civil war," it will mark not only an escalation of vocabulary, but of international concern.
Some aren't ready for the label. "It's not a state of civil war yet, but we're on the verge of it," said Baghdad political writer Jabir al-Jabari.
Rumsfeld said in Washington on Tuesday he doesn't believe a civil war has begun here, but intelligence analysts are "trying to look for a way to characterize what are the ingredients of a civil war, and how would you know if there was one, and what it would look like."
Specialists might tell them not to waste their time: Iraq was there long ago.
"By the standard that political scientists use, there's been a civil war going on in Iraq since sovereignty was handed over to the interim government in 2004," said Stanford University's James Fearon, who has done detailed studies of modern internal conflicts.
American military analyst Stephen Biddle says U.S. policy-makers make a mistake if they "miss the nature of the conflict, which in Iraq is already a civil war between rival ethnic and sectarian groups." Washington should work to broker a peace by allocating power and resources — that is, oil revenues — along those same lines, Biddle said.
Marr, author of the 1985 book The Modern History of Iraq, takes a long view and sees revolution where others see civil war.
With the 2003 U.S. invasion, she said, "we have brought about two revolutions in Iraq." One was a change of leadership, the toppling of President Saddam Hussein. The second is a revolution in the nature of the Iraqi state: Will it survive, or break up into separate Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish entities?
Iraq compared to Lebanon
Political scientist Khazen, reached by telephone in Beirut, said he saw striking parallels between Iraq and the devastating Lebanese civil war of a generation ago — but differences, too.
"For some people, this war in Iraq is a war against the United States," he said.
And it's a war, in its many aspects, that could get worse, all agreed. Bassem al-Sheik, editor-in-chief of Baghdad's al-Dustor newspaper, for example, worried Iraq's security forces might disintegrate, with elements joining Sunni or Shiite sides. That would, in al-Sheik's eyes, signal civil war.
By whatever name, things are getting worse, Baghdadis will tell you, as they bar their doors at night against the threat of sectarian gangs and listen to the clatter of gunfire. The reverberations seem even to reach a deposed tyrant in his cell.
At his televised trial on Wednesday, before being cut off by the judge, Saddam told Iraqis that what he has heard is "bad," and he warned them against the fratricide of civil war. Otherwise, he said, "you'll live in darkness and rivers of blood for no reason."
In other words: "Has it begun? Has it? Has it? Are we there yet? Is this it?"
Another civil war begins? Why, I thought one begun just two weeks ago!
Has civil war begun?
I think it starts with a parade.
Of course it's begun. It's been going on. No need to be delusional.
That DOES NOT mean we need to go loony liberal and start talking about withdrawl and the such. We'll still win this one, yes it will take time, but civil war, as any historian would tell you, was expected from the beginning.
It's the liberals who want to find any excuse to maintain their stupidity.
The absolute worst thing that could happen to the media is for things to go well in Iraq.
"And we'll report one regardless!"
The important thing isn't if it has begun, but....which side are you one (you as in, the media).
susie
Exactly.
If we say it enought, it will happen...they little "wish fairies" will deliver a civil war to Iraq so we can say we were right and Bush was wrong and we'll take back the Congress and impeach Bush and Hillary will be president and Feingold will be vice-president and the won't be any more wars or religion or marriage or borders and the evil rich will pay for everything we need and we can get high all day with our enlightened gay friends...
"We'll still win this one"
please define win then? I believe we can say that we have won already... if we haven't yet then I fear we can't. If "win" means a democracy in Iraq... I am not sold on that being a viable option. It would be nice but who knows.
"People bar their doors at night an dlisten to the clatter of gunfire in Baltimore too."
So are you suggesting Baghdad is no more dangerous than Baltimore?
Well, win meaning providing a stable enough government to leave behind. Whether democracy is installed in the process is more of a consolation prize than victory.
Look, it's up to Iraq to want to act at least a little bit civilized. If they continue to allow barbarism and terrorism as viable means of influence and control then a democracy becomes pointless. It's like trying to teach a rabid monkey yoga.
I guess I don't understand -- when did their civil war(s) ever end?
"It's like trying to teach a rabid monkey yoga"
If your the teacher how long do you teach?
What? Did Vermont FINALLY succeed? I say THIS time we let the erring sisters go! No War for Snow! Support the Troops, pull them out of Vermont!
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