Posted on 03/13/2006 5:22:37 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
Like a mellowing parent, America in the 21st century needs to plan for the best possible future for its children and grandchildren. Common to human nature, as our years advance, we begin to search out our roots and pass on hereditary information to our descendants. In this great melting pot of a nation, there are few of us who dont have links to Europe and we look back at the old country with the greatest of affection.
But do we want as an ally an aging Europe, with mounting debt and a population that is declining to grow by the tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, with angry Muslim immigrants from North Africa and Middle East countries?
Historically, up to the beginning of last century, elderly people aged 65 years or older made up approximately 2% to 3% of the population.
In 1980 the median age for Europeans was 32 years. For U.S. citizens, it was 30 years.
By 2050, the median age projection for the European Union is 52 years. For U.S. citizens, it is 39 years.
So between 1980 and 2050, Europeans have aged 20 years, but U.S. citizens have aged 9 years.
There are two primary reasons for this age span between the average European and American. A declining birth rate in Europe has become trendy, which is coupled with rising longevity. Though Americans are also enjoying longevity, our birth rate is at about replacement level.
This forecast is dire for the continent of Europe and may bring several economic and geopolitical difficulties.
The disadvantages include slower economic growth and a higher cost per person to subsidize the public debt and provide public service such as national defense. Combine this with the funding of pensions and healthcare for the elderly and a gloomy picture rears its head for the future of Europes economic state.
The Europeans own figures project that the EUs share of the worlds GDP will shrink substantially over the next two generations, from 18% in 2000 to 10% in 2050.
In the same period the EU projects that the U.S. share will go from 23% to 26%.
According to the European Commission 2002, the largest economies in the world will be that of the USA, China, and India.
European Commission, The EU Economy: 2002 Review, ELFIN/475/02-EN:
December 11, 2002.
In the EU report of 2005, the commission forecast that from the year 2015 a shrinking workforce, will act as a brake on potential growth of the EU, reducing it from 2.5% today to 1.25%
Another disaster that looms in the future of Europe is the shrinking pool of people available to pay for government health and pension plans.
These systems are un-funded. The governments hold few assets, and benefits must therefore be paid directly from incoming taxes.
With the shrinkage of working people, the revenues from taxation will decrease, while the number of people on pensions will increase.
The demand for government health care will increase substantially, as seniors consume most of the health care cost.
According to the UN Population Division in 1980, there were 22 people aged 65+ for every 100 workers.
In 2005 that number increased to 25 people aged 65+ for every 100 workers and by 2050, there will be 56 people aged 65+ for every 100 workers.
One does not have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that this is less than two workers per retiree!
In a report published in 2005, Laurence Kotlikoff, et al., have calculated that:
· Europe, where the total tax on wages is already above 40 percent, the tax burden will rise to 60 percent by 2030 and approach a staggering 70 percent by mid-century.
· Combining these tax rates with an 8 percent simulated fall in real wages, the expected reduction in take-home pay of European workers will be one quarter by 2030.
· By mid-century, the relative fall in after tax wages will exceed 40 percent relative to what it would have been without the growing burden of elderly entitlements.
Aging, the World Economy and the Coming General Storm
(NCPA Policy Report No 273)
Here comes the hard bite for the Europeans:
Tax rates have to be raised on a public that is already overburdened with taxation.
The other critical solution would be to raise the immigration barriers and take in more young people to pay the taxes to fund the pensions promised.
Of course, there are other solutions that might resolve the problems of Europes emptying coffers.
1. This could be achieved by reversing the trend of the lower birth rate by psychological means and/or monetary rewards.
2. Reducing pensions by up to 41% and cutting back on health care benefits, which would lead to a desperate state for the seniors.
3. Liberalizing immigration laws.
4. A combination of all of the above options.
Here-in lies a conundrum for the Europeans: Is there a chance that the birth rates will reach replacement levels very soon? Not very likely!
Neither the U.N. Population Division, nor the German Federal Statistical Office see this happening by 2050.
Fertility rates change slowly over time and to get the fertility rate from 1.5 per woman (i.e.15 live births for every 10 women during their child bearing years) to 2.1 per woman (which is the requirement for a society to replace itself) is a 50% increase.
Even with incentives by the government, if it can possibly happen, it will take a generation for the population to replenish itself. which is too late to impact the year 2050.
And to make matters worse, since the pool of women in their childbearing years is small, a 2.1 fertility rate will replace a smaller society.
Lets take a look at immigration. Could this be the solution to Europes shrinking population? Perhaps, but Europeans may want to learn Arabic, look in the direction of Mecca, and learn the ways of the benevolent Sharia!
The grave dangers of the immigration solution to Europes glaring geopolitical and economic problems is the subject of Part Two, which will appear next week.
It's not widely realized that Eurabia, a name popularized by Bat Ye'or which anticipates the Islamification of Europe and the dhimmitude of its peoples, actually began as a covert French policy.
The French, their German allies, and the EU reached out to the Arab countries, out of greed for Arab oil money and ambition to counter the perceived power of the United States by developing a new Mediterranean alliance made of of the European and Arab countries.
The acronymn that developed was EAD, the European Arab Dialogue. See the discussion at Wikepedia, a somewhat suspect source which nevertheless gives the main details accurately enough:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurabia
When Europe forgot its Christian roots and became greedy for material comforts, it began to commit suicide by demographic implosion and Muslim immigration. That is why France has been behaving as if it were our enemy. It is, literally, our enemy by intention.
I don't know if there's anything we can do to mend this situation, or prevent Europe from descending into extinction. But we should, if we can possibly figure out how to do it, because America will be greatly isolated if Europe vanishes. It's not made any easier by the fact that the French governing classes hate us and are working against us.
Maybe we could send those illegal aliens flooding into the U.S.A. to Europe.
However, I have friends in France and Germany with whom I correspond fairly regularly by e-mail. When I put aside the bluster ("it's Bush's fault,")one thing is clear: they are worried about the future.
They know that the European "model" is not working well. They both resent and envy American economic success, and though they might experience momentary "Schadenfreude" or "Joie de dommages" at American setbacks they know that they need America for their ultimate protection.
Maybe we could offer pensions to the Europeans in return for their property.
Europeans should not be merely worried about the future; they should be in panic!
They are in denial.
Yes. Europeans are in denial--the forerunner of tragedy. A global Greek chorus shouts warnings, but they go unheeded, as Europe races inexorably toward its fate.
Great article....can't wait for part two!.
Europe has some real problems.
"Maybe we could offer pensions to the Europeans in return for their property."
LOL. Nice one!
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