Posted on 03/12/2006 7:18:11 AM PST by TitansAFC
Topinka 36% Oberweis 25% Gidwitz 19% Brady 11% Martin 1% Undecided 8%
Oberweis closing on Topinka, poll finds SPRINGFIELD BUREAU 03/12/2006
Judy Topinka continues to pose the most serious threat to Gov. Blagojevich, still holding him under 50% support among likely voters, according to a new Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV poll.
But two weeks out from the GOP primary for governor, Topinka herself faces a growing threat from Jim Oberweis. Oberweis, a wealthy dairy owner, has made substantial gains against her in the past month.
The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted Monday through Wednesday by Research 2000. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5%. The poll found that Topinka continues to lead over four other Republicans going into the March 21 primary, and that she is the only candidate within striking distance of Blagojevich.
"There's no question Blagojevich is vulnerable. He's under 50%, that's the bottom line," said the head of Research 2000. "If Topinka rides out this storm, it could be a very interesting general election."
But the primary may be a rougher storm for Topinka than it previously appeared. In a five-way race, the poll found Topinka is still comfortably ahead of second-place candidate Oberweis, by 36% to 25%. But that lead has shrunk significantly since early February, when a Chicago Tribune poll put Topinka ahead of Oberweis 38% to 17%.
Topinka is campaigning as a fiscal conservative/social moderate, traditionally the most successful combination for Republican candidates in Illinois general elections - though hard-right conservatives such as Oberweis have often found success in GOP primaries.
"It's tighter than it was, which you would expect, given the money that Oberweis...(has) spent," said Kent Redfield, political expert (U of I Springfield).
"She's certainly in a good position, still. If the dynamics don't change dramatically, she's going to win."
(Excerpt) Read more at stltoday.com ...
In terms of patronage (power), I think it ranks a close third. Governor #1 ... Hizzoner da mare #2.
JZ, since some of us opined on JohnyEdwards and other disgraces from your state. Yes, you can jump in on our discussion.
From most of the posts in this thread, you'd think the race is about ideological issues. Wrong.
Toopinka has a fixed number of votes (40%) regardless of where she stands on ideology. She could not care less about guns or gays or abortion. Toopinka's sole interest is money and power. She'd pimp her best whore to anyone with the price.
Her fixed votes come from a corrupt but very experienced and effective organization known as the BI-PARTISAN COMBINE. Regional combine leaders like Rosemont Mayor/Leyden Twp boss Don Stephens and St Rep Skip Savianno deliver a known amount of votes for Toopinka. This is how. They order specific people:
"You will work your precinct and deliver for Toopinka. If you don't, your mother-in-law will lose her job and it will be all your fault." That type of effectiveness has zero to do with the issues. The mother-in-law might have a job with a Democrat, Republican, ambulance chaser or politically correct corporation. It doesn't matter. It is hard-ball.
In contrast, some of us are trying to build a good-government coalition of which us ideological conservatives / libertarians are the single biggest bloc; but not the only bloc. I've already seen coalition builders establish good relations with good-government Democrats (Eisendrath, Claypool, Coconate types) with the intent of getting them to support Oberweiss, should he win the primary. This is the same successful model that was built by Ogilvie in the early 60's.
If the votes were counted today:
Toopinka 40%
Oberweis 39%
Brady 10%
Gidwitz 10%
Martin ....
I presume you agree that getting behind Oberweis is the proper course here?
Oh, if people want to vote for Oberweis because they believe it's in the service of a greater good, that's certainly their perogative. As long as folks know all the facts, and don't try to perpetrate some fantasy. He is what he is, and reasonable people can look at a race with Topinko, Gidwitz, Brady, and Oberweis, and make the choice they think is best.
On electing a conservative in Illinois for governor, I'm not seeing this any time soon. Not with all the Dems in Chicago and the Daley/Madigan machine. This is what hacks me off with conservatives. We'll drive that bus right off the cliff and kill ourselves but, DAMMIT!, we made our point! We need to think long term like the liberals do.
Illinois CAN NOT AFFORD four more years of Blago. PERIOD. We have not had a capital budget in THREE years. The money was neither appropriated OR authorized. He even raided the speciality license plate funds and put it into the General fund. It's not going to the Prevent Violence, Susan G. Komen, Wildlife Prairie Park, etc fund. It goes into the general fund to be spent on whatever Rod chooses.
There that's all for now. Bill in Morton, IL
Bill,
Your analysis of history is flawed. Ideology (conservative, moderate or liberal) is not why or how the GOP has won in IL.
In the early 60s the IL GOP was also a disaster case. Orville Hodges was in jail. Stratton and Hoffman were more crooked but never gon convicted. Carpentier was the most crooked, the most corrupt SOS in my lifetime, much worse than George Ryan.
Bill Robinson&Co designed a strategy that Ogilvie implemented to kick the corrupt WestSide Bloc out of the IL GOP and have the GOP build a coalition with liberal good-government Democrats. I was there and knew those liberal Democrats personally. Their support of the GOP was totally on the basis of good-government and not on the basis of liberal-moderate-conservative.
From '62 to '98 the IL GOP has ONLY won when it has had the high road on good-government. While Bill Scott had the image of good-governmnt AND extreme conservative he had the support of the liberal Democrats and won. When he went downhill, it was due to his ethics, not his ideology. The same is true of every Republican.
Peter Fitzgerald had the image of extreme conservative. He did not win because of that image. He won because he had the good-government image ... and because one of his good-government successes as St Sen benefitted the building trades unions at the expense of the bi-partisan combine that ran McPier.
When Toopinka and the bi-partisan combine sabotaged Fitz, it was not because he was too conservative. It was because he was too honest.
The people in this thread are not typical of Illinois. Most voters (both R and D) are not ideological. They vote based on image. Corruption is the #1 factor in formation of that image for Republicans.
Yes, there is a double standard. As Swearingen of Standard Oil and Ogilvie's "Jack Roeser money-bags" used to say: You expect more from Republicans... and you'd better get it.
Hey, I have started another forum on Steve Rauschenberger. This one's pretty funny. I know you support Sandy Wedgeman(sp?).
Talk about your screw ups (Rauschenberger).
When the people of Connecticut bought that line, we wound up with Lowell P. Weicker, Jr. in the governor's office, as an independent no less (he knew better than to seek the GOP nod after GOP voters yanked his despicable and treasonous backside right out of his US Senate seat). Then the scum-sucking pig Weicker instituted a state income tax. He is gone now from public office and is not missed except by lobbyists and other pragmatists.
You mean, you mean if we don't elect Tooopinkovna and bring back the abortionist crooks (see it isn't just ideology there is also state capitol thievery, a way of life among the friends of Judy Snore), we might elect something really awful like, like, like a Democrat, like Blago!!!! Better Judy Snore and the 40 or 400 thieves, huh????? Ohhhh the jobs, the contracts, the taxpayer's money!!!!!! Mmmmmmmm, yummmmm chant the Pragmaticans and Pragmaticrats!!!!) And all that stands in the way are those suckers and rubes who think that issues matter!!!!
Besides the moderates have issues. They do too have issues!!!!! How about Prevent Violence, huh! Don't those right wing nuts care about Prevent Violence???? Or Susan G. Komen (whatever/whoever the hell that may be), huh!!! Don't the wingers care about Susie???? And, and, and the Wildlife Prairie Park, yeah that's the ticket! Blago doesn't fund Prevent Violence or Susan G. or, or, or Wildlife Prairie Park or ANY of the really BIG issues. All they want to talk about is the petty crap like life, liberty, property, guns, babies, marriage, opposition to confiscatory taxes and Judy Snore running around at Machineland alternative lifestyle parades and soirees, sucking up to the PervertAmerican community representing (barf) the GOP at their annual Pervfests. Puhleeeeze!!!!!
As to Blago's spending habits.... just keep repeating to yourself: It is only money. It is only money. It is only money. Also keep reminding yourself that Blago as Governor is the wage of spineless cowardly "moderate" Republicanism: Lyin' George Ryan, Gentleman Jim Edgar (Judy Bore's biggest backer which says more about him than it does about her), Big Jim Thompson, and a cast of dozens.
To reiterate what I have previously posted on FR. I will not vote for Judy Bore Toooopinka if she is nominated. I will vote against her. I will vote for Blago if necessary to keep Toooooopinkovna out of public life. I hope that Republicans will join me in not voting for her. Blago is a better choice for the GOP since his re-election over Toooooopinkovna lets the GOP internal party purge begin this November rather than decent Republicans being stuck with the worthless lifestyle leftist witch in power for four years, using taxpayers' money to buy enough "pragmatists" to keep the spineless and treasonous appendage of the Illinois GOP alive and in business.
I am glad we hack you off.
Do you want to explain the "long-term" thinking that you reference which makes electing a pro-homosexual, tax-squandering, probable gun grabbing, pro-abortion, pro-homosexual (and Lord only knows what else along those lines), good ol' windtunnel a good idea for the GOP generally and its conservative majority in particular????
Face it. You have conceded the issues war and will settle for money. Conservatives should just get the message that layering your lifestyle with gummint cash is their job whether they like it or not.
Here's some long-term thinking for conservatives: Require that any GOP primarty voter be a registered member of the Repubpican Party for a minimum of six months immediately prior to any primary. Party rules govern over state statutes according to a 1972 SCOTUS case having to do with the seating of the Chicago delegation to the Demonrat National Convention. Demonrats and independents should NEVER be allowed a say in the GOP nominating process. Barring them (as we did in Connecticut) will be the most effective reform the Illinois GOP could make. There are three things arguably in the middle of the road: yellow stripes, dead armadilloes and Republicans without principles (the moneygrubbing wing of the GOP complete with portable mattresses, portable red lights and sacks of quarters to make change). RINOs are also bad bus drivers and particularly bad unless the steering wheel and brakes are shaped like dollar signs so RINOvision can spot them.
I understand that Obie made unfortunate amateur hour remarks about prolifers being like Taliban (I always have wanted to hand Hillary over to the Taliban) in his utter inexperience as a candidate four years ago, was punished HARD by pro-lifers two years ago while he was grovelling for our forgiveness with quite credible apologies and pledges of hard pro-life behavior thereafter, and continues to pledge to be pro-life now. I want my trespasses forgiven and I am willing, under these circumstances to forgive his. Only Obie can beat Tooooopinkovna/Sanger. If Obie is not perfect, he is certainly good enough. He is what he is and, this year, deserves our support. Voting Brady is like voting Constitution Party. Feels good going down but but does not stick to one's ribs and you wind up with the Toooopinkovnas in charge of the GOP.
Three possibilities: Tooooopinkovna is nominated. We beat her from within because she ain't NEVER going to be standard bearer of the GOP in the governor's office. Obie is nominated. Blago beats Obie but conservatives take over the party and prepare future victory after Blago is indicted, convicted and jailed (UberFedProsecutor Fitzgerald started working on this about two years ago but apparently intends to jail Lyin' Ryan first). Obie is elected and understands that he does not EVER want to cross prolifers again based on his 2004 experience. WIN/WIN/WIN.
EVERYONE: See Spintreebob's #86 on the corruption that is normal to Illinois and my #88 to which I meant to ping y'all.
"I will not vote for Judy Bore Toooopinka if she is nominated. I will vote against her. I will vote for Blago if necessary to keep Toooooopinkovna out of public life. I hope that Republicans will join me in not voting for her. Blago is a better choice for the GOP since his re-election over Toooooopinkovna lets the GOP internal party purge begin this November rather than decent Republicans being stuck with the worthless lifestyle leftist witch in power for four years, using taxpayers' money to buy enough "pragmatists" to keep the spineless and treasonous appendage of the Illinois GOP alive and in business."
Do you really think this will work? It seems to me that Conservatives have been trying this strategy for several years and it hasn't worked.
We need money to defeat these leftists in the GOP. Some kind of combined effort might do it. Elections don't seem to mean anything for them as we have been through 2 or 3 cycles with no change. They are settling in as we are doing the same.
Any thoughts?
As I said in #84, that's certainly your perogative to judge. I am spared the decision on who to vote for in this case, but I do like to air the imperfections (let's call them) on a factual basis so people can make their decisions with eyes open, as you have done.
Most of my posts have been defining the fact that Oberweis ran as a supporter of legal abortion in 2002, something which reasonable people acknowledge but that a few FReepers vehemently denied.
Yes I am. Politics do make strange bedfellows though, don't it? It is nice to finally stand downwind from you BL and watch the vitriol blow elsewhere. Whew. ;@*
Blushing Blackie
We have a lot more people than they do. They know who theirs are. We don't know a tenth of ours. They are better organized. We can out organize them and we should. We must learn to identify ours, organize them and use necessary tactics to maximize our vote and minimize theirs.
I don't claim to know Illinois very well. I have been here, on the relative outside looking in, for six years. I can tell you that Connecticut is amazingly more organized than northwest Illinois. I suspect that Hizzonah da Mare is throwing votes into GOP primaries as a hedge. I do not want to be overly detailed on the net. When FR folks get together somewhere around Elgin (watch this board) after the primary, try to be there and I will be much more detailed as will others.
When I moved to Illinois after 40 years of activity back in Connecticut, I thought I was heading for the Vatican of political machine states. When I got here, it was analogous to being introduced to a ninety-year old prison lifer who in youth, had been a legendary gangster but had become a worn-out old timer with neither memory nor force. As (gulp) Jane Fonda told the old geezer bad guys in The Ballad of Cat Ballou when they would not take her money to avenge her father's murder: "When we were little kids, we whispered your names with awe in the hope that no one would hear. After all, you might come gunning for us for mentioning you. Now that I have met you, you are SUCH disappointments.
Well, I may be missing something subtle out here, but Illinois, at least in the Northwest, looks like conservative but virgin political territory. WE CAN DO SOOOOOO MUCH BETTER! In fact, we will.
BTW, what are a mere 2 or 3 cycles. Patience, precious, patience!!!!! Illinois was not destroyed in a day. Nor will it be rebuilt in one. Wouldn't you like to wipe that Eddie Haskell smirk off Durbin's puss?????
I like my beer cold
I like my tv loud,
and I like my homosexuals fuh-laming.
-- Homer Simpson
As you say, let it be done!
"Wouldn't you like to wipe that Eddie Haskell smirk off Durbin's puss?????"
Oh heck yeah! I can't wait.
The one positive thing about Illinois politics is that it's not so bad...when looking at California or New Jersey!
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