Posted on 03/09/2006 9:30:25 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
China's poor pose threat to wealthy future
By Chris Bowlby
Analysis, Radio 4
Look at China from a distance, and those huge new skyscrapers in places like Shanghai may dominate the view.
They symbolise rapid recent growth, glitzy cities and factories flooding the world with consumer goods.
Look beyond, however, and another China comes into focus - where hundreds of millions still live in poverty, and where a communist government struggles with the contradictions of running a capitalist economy.
Last week the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, warned the National People's congress in Beijing of "deep-seated conflicts" and promised to spend more to ease the urban-rural divide.
Resentment and assertiveness
Oxford political scientist Steve Tsang says China is a "brittle" place.
There are fears that China's going to become the first country to get old before it gets rich Anthropologist Elisabeth Croll
It looks strong from the outside but "the situation can disintegrate very quickly".
The communists hope continued rapid economic growth will permit their continued hold on to power.
But they are now caught between the resentment of those left behind by the boom and the assertiveness of a new middle class.
Political freedom
Take Beijing's recent deal with Google.
On the one hand, a symbol of China continuing to embrace the global economy.
But Google had to agree to block access to politically sensitive websites, something the government's 30,000 "Online police" struggle to do.
Chris Berry, a specialist on the Chinese media, points out that there are an estimated three million Chinese bloggers.
Their writings are full of criticism of official corruption and environmental cover-ups.
Economic freedom granted by the government encourages political freedom, which Beijing finds highly embarrassing.
Safety net
Pressure of a different kind comes from rural areas.
Anthropologist Elisabeth Croll, who has been visiting China regularly for several decades, says around 400 million Chinese are still living on $2 a day.
Migration and TV have made them more aware than ever of how their richer compatriots are prospering.
Demography is also posing problems.
The notorious 'one child' policy has left a population rapidly ageing.
There are fears, says Professor Croll, "that China's going to become the first country to get old before it gets rich".
Because of all this, the government dare not expose many state-owned enterprises to the rigours of the free market, as they provide not just jobs but a vital social safety net too.
They remain a huge drag on the economy.
China's impact
Chinese people, says Mr Berry, are divided between those who think their future is Californian and those who think it will be more like Russia - a place where the transition from communism has been far from happy.
Pessimists see a Chinese state ever more unstable, perhaps resorting to nationalism if it feels its power slipping and old tensions with neighbours like Taiwan and Japan come to the fore.
Some foreign investors, says Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill, "wouldn't want to go anywhere near China", while others feel "you just can't ignore it and you have to be there".
Such is China's size that, if its growth continues smoothly, it will continue to have a huge global impact.
But its impact might be very different if the Chinas of rich and poor, young and old, communist and capitalist cannot be reconciled.
'Analysis - China's Challenge'. Broadcast on BBC Radio 4 at 8.30pm on 9 March, repeated at 9.30pm on 12 March
Ping!
Duh!
Either let everyone be equally poor, or allow at least some to lift themselves up.
Eat the poor.
The trouble is that the poor will eat you in the end. There are just too many of them.
If the Party comes to this conclusion, they will arrange for there to be a lot fewer "poor."
.....lift themselves up......
Maybe they should try out for Chinese Idol
The soviets did in WWII
And not just in WWII.
Perhaps..., by herding them into "Human Waves" for assaults in a war against one of China's neighbors (a "tried and true" technique.......)!
Wait, I thought that communism created a worker's paradise and it would erase poverty. How can there still be poor people in China?
Some die for their motherland while others die against it. When they are done, China may not in one piece afterwards.
The rich-poor gap in China does not mean the poor are getting poorer, but rather that some people are getting richer. China this year has 400 million cell phone users. That's a big number, but it also means there are 900 million Chinese without cell phones.
Having everyone being dirt poor is not the solution for China. BBC sometimes sounds really socialist.
Not being one piece (by that I mean the provinces are made into independent or semi-independent states) might be good for China as a whole in the long-run. Some Chinese provinces have 80, 120 million people. That's the population of France or Germany. If China can produce a dozen South Koreas, then it would be vastly more powerful than it is today.
Economic and cultural productivity in Chinese history flourished during fragmented periods, not during strong dynasties.
I hear that things are getting more expensive while wage is lagging back. Besides, land disputes and widespread pollutions cannot be just brushed aside. China is just milking vast pool of dirt cheap labor and land. It is way beyond what happened in other E. Asian countries during their initial economic take-off. People are quite expendable, unless you are not really connected to government power. It is such a condition which creates these problem.
China intends to stay as a large state as it is, and wants to grow really fast. This is not sustainable.
Most importantly, there are rampant corruptions. Much of wealth were amassed in a corrupt manner. Financial system has been thoroughly corrupted. However, such corruption made small number of connected folks spectacularly rich. Other well-off ones are feeding from these guys in a sense.
Such a rampant corruption and arbitrary use of government power to push corrupt deals are making peasants angry. It is not just mere income gap issue. The gap has been made so wide thanks to power abuse and corruption.
It is one thing to advocate several Chinas, but those in power and many Chinese are not keen on it. While it may be true that more prosperity were seen during divided periods, Chinese has a cultural reflex against it.
They will fight it. That is their problem. Forcing a civilization to be a nation state. This one-China mentality cost astronomical amount of blood in last 2,000 years. Chinese population regularly collapsed to one-third of the previous peak level. The worst seems to be drop from 60 million to 8 million some time after late-Han. That is a spectacular collapse. All because they spared nothing to be the ultimate hegemon of all China.
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