Dick Morris: With cultural forces behind her, Hillary can win in '08

The Hill ^ | March 1, 2006 | Dick Morris

[Jean S]

The Republican Party appears to be coalescing around the happy assumption that, while Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, she cannot be elected. So, the self-delusive logic says, she is really God's gift to the Republican Party.

This optimistic set of assumptions comes through loud and clear in the comments the president and Karl Rove made to Bill Sammon as he interviewed them for his new book Strategery. But their confidence indicates simply that they don't even begin to understand what they will be up against in a Hillary candidacy.

It has always been Mrs. Clinton's strategery to wrap herself in the generic. By embracing a set of liberal issues, she avoids personal scrutiny. By identifying with working women who are "trying to balance career and family", she buys a pass on charges of a conflict of interest over Rose Law Firm representation of Arkansas while her husband was governor. And now, by hiding behind the generic question of "Are we ready for a woman president?" she invites the question of whether we want this particular woman in the Oval Office.

The cultural forces that Hillary's candidacy will unleash - from the media, from Hollywood and from the cultural icons who decree our lifestyles - will be far beyond those that normally line up behind a presidential candidate. A small foretaste emerged in ABC TV's show "Commander in Chief," in which Geena Davis plays a female president who masters the men and the crises that litter her path. What other presidential candidacy was foreshadowed by a prime-time, hour-long weekly television show?

Hillary's candidacy will not be Democratic so much as demographic and not nearly as political as it will be cultural. The pent-up emotions of half of America will rise to the surface just as Catholics rallied to JFK's candidacy in 1960.

And white women are the swing vote in our politics. George W. Bush carried them by only 1 percent in 2000 and lost the popular vote. He walked away with white women in 2004 by a 14-point margin and carried the electorate by 3.5 points.

White men will vote against Hillary, of course, but are they likely to exceed the 2-1 margin by which they backed Bush in 2004? Or is the GOP organization really going to be able to turn out more than 62 million voters, an increase of 12 million over its 2000 total with very little increase in national population?

Blacks will vote for Hillary with genuine affection rather than the mere duty that animated their support of John Kerry, and Hispanics, who strongly backed Hillary in New York state, are likely to return to the overwhelmingly Democratic vote they cast in 2000, rather than the more balanced ballots they cast in 2004.

In the face of these demographic arguments, can Hillary's admittedly brittle public performances assure her defeat? Will voters see through her posture of moderation and hawkishness on terrorism? White men will. But white women won't. And Hillary will be elected.

Last year, my wife and I wrote about the urgency of a Condoleezza Rice candidacy to nullify Hillary's advantages. Since then, Rice, despite her best efforts to deny a candidacy, has caught fire among the American electorate. In the most recent Gallup poll, 12 percent named her, unaided, as the Republican they would like to see run, and the most up to date head-to-head poll, by the Marist Institute, shows her locked in a three-way tie with Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, with each candidate winning 22 percent of the Republican primary vote.

Those who listen to the melodious tones of Bush and Rove do a disservice to our country. The threat of a Hillary Clinton victory is real and present, and the usual suspects - the likes of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Virginia Sen. George Allen, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, New York Gov. George Pataki et al. are not likely to be able to defeat her. Rudy could, but he won't be nominated because of his social liberalism. McCain could, but he lacks popularity with the GOP rank and file.

Do not underestimate Hillary Clinton's chances to win!

Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.

[Maringa]

That is a sobering thought....Clinton only needs to gain one state to win (if she keeps all of Kerry's states). I'm already prepared to think we will have a democratic president next election. The key will be if we can hold the house and senate. You know that if we have a minority senate, Clinton will steamroll every proposal through congress because the Republicans would never have the stamina to threaten a fillibuster.

[Dark Wing]

ping

[I still care]

<src img="http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/statemapredblue.

Remember the final vote was 286 to 252. Which red states would Hillary have to pick off to win? Arkansas? Ohio?

Close Bush States (5-9.99%)
66 Electoral Votes

Arkansas (6) - 9%
Virginia (13) - 9%
Missouri (11) - 8%
Colorado (9) - 7%
Florida (27) - 5%


Really Close Bush States (4.99% or less)
37 Electoral Votes

Nevada (5) - 3%
Ohio (20) - 2%
Iowa (7) - 1%
New Mexico (5) - 1%

[I still care]

Sorry for some reason the map isn't printing out, even when I corrected the html.

[Michael.SF.]

and just wait til yu see the adds.

A lot of what you mention has a tremendous potential for backlash against "negative campaigning", and thus must be used with selectivity. But consider this potential ad:

Announcer: "During the week of September 14th, 1997 Hillary Clinton testified before Congress. Here is Mrs. Clinton in her own words:

(Cut to various shots of Hillary testimony)

"I really do not know"
"I have no recollection of that"
" I just do not know"
"Honestly, I have no memory on that subject"
.... (similar words continue)

Announcer: "Mrs. Clinton's testimony before Congress continued in a similar vein for several hours, using the phrase "I don't know, or similar words over 100 times. Is this the woman you want in the White House?"

Or: "After testifying in a similar fashion the documents under federal subpoena were found in her bedroom closet the week after the subpoena expired. Coincidence?"

(Switch to Hillary)

"You know, I really do not know the answer to that question."

[GeorgeW23225]

I think you may be on to something, but....
I think it will be Clinton/Richardson and McCain/Rice.

Hillary has a major problem choosing her V.P. She is so shrill, that most anyone she chooses will make her look even worse in comparison. And she doesn't dare choose someone like John Edwards because he is prettier than she is. :-)

[demoRat watcher]

Key sentence in article:

Morris, a former political adviser to ... President Bill Clinton...

[demoRat watcher]

IF Mrs Bill Clinton won, Dickie Boy would work for her in a flash.

Do you really think he ever STOPPED working for her?

[Always Right]

Yiiipppppiiiiiieeeeeee! If Hillary did not have enough going against her, now she has Dick Morris saying she can win! That is the kiss of death for any politician.

[GeorgeW23225]

Actually, Mr. Morris, with Her Heinous Hillary's negatives so high, she can NOT win.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

Blacks will vote for Hillary with genuine affection rather than the mere duty that animated their support of John Kerry, and Hispanics, who strongly backed Hillary in New York state, are likely to return to the overwhelmingly Democratic vote they cast in 2000, rather than the more balanced ballots they cast in 2004.

I know a couple of mature black women who love Hillary for "all the good she's done". They just couldn't mention any specific good thing that Hillary had done.

[KC_Conspirator]

Dick Morris has some good political insights. He is a very good campaign manager.

However, he is awful at making predictions.

He was wrong on Hillary the first time. He was wrong on Arnold. He was wrong about Bush and 2004.

This country has not elected a northeastern liberal since FDR and that was a different time. I predicted this in 2004 and I will predict it again. Furthermore, running with a hand picked media and a built in democrat advantage in NY is not the same as running a national campaign.

[GeorgeW23225]

I understand your concern and the logic that you are using.

But.......even Gore and Kerry didn't have the high negatives that Thunder Thighs Hillary has. Add to that the fact that the reason Kerry got so close was because of the Bush haters, and only because of that. President Bush will NOT be running this time.

I truly believe that a Hillary nomination would be an absolute disaster for the democRATS.

With that said, I am taking NOTHING for granted, and I will do whatever I can to make sure she never steps a foot into the White House again!!

[hosepipe]

[ But their[republicans] confidence indicates simply that they don't even begin to understand what they will be up against in a Hillary candidacy. ]

True they will run a Bob Dole look alike.. with the same results..

They don't know what they're up against with Hillary.. thats one thing.. But they don't know what they're up against on a whole range of other issues.. i.e. the Mexican Border for one..

Depending on viseral hatred of Hillary is Hillarys greatest strength.. Only White Men hate Hillary.. and not all of Them.. American women generally are dumber than a tampon.. Oprah will lead them all or most of them into Hillarys Spider Web.. like flys to a Poodles deposit..

[Torie]

Hillary can win, Hillary can't win, Hillary can't lose unless Rice is the nominee. What is the next morphing of Morris that we can expect? Morris seems transfixed by women in politics.

[dware]

fyi

[Antoninus]

I'm beginning to think Dickie is working for Hillary. Anything to keep her odious name in the news...

[ZULU]

I'm neither entertained nor amused.

Morris is a very savy and astute political insider.

Defeating Hillery with any candidate other than Rice will be extremely difficult.

The entertainment freaks will flock to her support. Hollyweird will generate propaganda to support her. The mass media will ignore any problems with her background and put any Republican under a microscope. AND, with McCain-Feingold functioning then, the ability of groups other than the media to unmaks her or pull October surprises will be destroyed.

If the Repubs want to destroy Hillery's chances in 2008, they have to find and publish dirt on her NOW and keep it up as long as legally possible under McCain-Feingold.

Vote for Rice if she runs and pray for Divine help in defeating this wicked witch of the west.

[stockstrader]

I disagree. Do NOT misunderestimate her. I am old enough to remember hearing the very same things about Ronald Reagan in the 70's. The anti-war crowd, the liberal-left all DESPISED Reagan--and the mainstream Republican Party did NOT want him because they felt his strong rhetoric and solid stances on taxes, the strong support for the military, the Vietnam war, and vocally warning of the dangers of government turned off too many moderates.

There were passionate feelings on both sides about Reagan--just like Hilarity. His negatives were very high also. The consensus then, like now about SHillary, was that his nomination would be a disaster for the Republican Party. Many Republicans and Democrats were certain of that. I remember Democrats 'hoping' that Reagan would be nominated for that reason.

Do NOT sell Her Heinous short!!

[reagan_fanatic]

"I'm gonna volunteer Mr. Morris's leadership to this platoon. An army without toe-suckers is like a foot without a big toe. And our resident toe-sucker isn't always gonna be here to do our big toes for us. I think that we owe a big round of applause to our newest, bestest buddy, and big toe sucker... Dick Morris."