Posted on 02/18/2006 4:34:05 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)
He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldn’t be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalwire.com ...
Of course, Mike Sodrel was a retread in '04 when he upset Baron Hill. That race wasn't even on the radar it was such a surprise.
Well, yes, retreads do sometimes win, but they far more often lose. It's more than just the retread factor. Simmons beat an incumbent Dem in 2000 to take the seat. The seat became 2% more GOP after redistricting. Simmons then beat Courtney by 54% in 2002, and then beat Sullivan (who I thought was a much superior candidate to Courtney) by 54% in 2004. Simmons is more seasoned, has won three elections in three very different political landscapes, and can also claim to have saved Groton.
And another difference between the Simmons and Hill situations is that Simmons has done nothing at all that I'm aware of to get fired. Hill was a casualty of his vote against the Federal Marriage Amendment. Sure, it wasn't on much of anyone's radar (it was on mine) but that upset does have a clear explanation.
To the contrary, Simmons can claim to have saved Groton, which is not some trivial accomplishment. The only reason I can figure why people are predicting a Simmons loss is just the 'national mood' factor. Maybe that'll do it, but there are plenty of incumbents that represent contrary districts who've survived all kinds of shifts in the national mood.
Connie Morrella pops to mind, who wasn't finally done in by electorate mood swings but by redistricting, and then just barely.
Morella lost big actually. Morella was not nearly as loyal a Pubbie as Simmons in any event. She was the Chafee of the House.
Just to be clear though, I still rate NM-01 as a Toss Up, not as a Lean Dem. The reason is because it's still no sure bet that the GOP will be in as bad shape as now, if not worse.
If I were to assume that the GOP would enter the Nov election with today's political landscape, I would rate NM-01 a Lean Dem. These are my ratings for GOP-held seats right now in the Lean Dem, Toss Up, and Lean GOP categories.
Lean Democratic
1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (OH-18) Ney
3 (CO-07) Beauprez*
4 (PA-06) Gerlach
5 (TX-22) DeLay
Toss Up
6 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
7 (NM-01) Wilson
8 (IN-08) Hostettler
9 (IN-09) Sodrel
10 (WI-08) Green*
11 (WA-08) Reichert
12 (CT-04) Shays
Lean Republican
13 (MN-06) Kennedy*
14 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
15 (IL-06) Hyde*
16 (CT-02) Simmons
17 (FL-22) Shaw
18 (OH-15) Pryce
19 (CA-50) Cunningham*
20 (KY-04) Davis
21 (NC-11) Taylor
22 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
If the election were held today, I think the GOP would lose the top 8 seats, with 9 & 10 on the cusp. I think they would hold the rest (Reichert on down).
Morella lost by 47.49% to 51.71% for Van Hollen, which was a smaller margin than they pumped up the Dem performance of her district (it went from 60.5% Gore to 65.5% Gore after redistricting).
I thought she lost by more. Thanks.
I was always amazed Morella never switched parties, it would've been ideologically effortless for her. What's truly amazing is that after her loss, she was REWARDED with an Ambassadorship to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development which she still holds today...
http://www.oecd.org/document/63/0,2340,en_2649_201185_1924095_1_1_1_1,00.html
The New Mexico political watcher I talk with, who's a classic Independent swing voter from Albuquerque (on another board), says that Madrid is too far to the left to win in this CD. It will obviously be fairly close, however, and in a strong Dem year, would have a good shot of flipping.
Wilson will continue to track to the middle, as she has done with the "wire-tapping" story and other votes. How Madrid plays this will be interesting. He also says that if the nominee were someone like , mayor of Albuquerque, Martin Chavez, a more centrist candidate, the chances of a Dem win would be much stronger.
Just as a tidbit, I'll give a couple of things to watch for in this race:
This is the best blog I know of to follow NM politics and this race from a non-partisan view:
http://www.joemonahan.com/
As we all know, non-partisan House polls are nearly impossible to come by. So, you have to look at partisan ones and try and make guesses.
Madrid did release an internal poll, done by Celinda Lake's DC firm that showed Wilson up 44%-43% over Madrid.
http://www.madridforcongress.com/node/513
The poll also gave Wilson a 52% approval rating. Wilson's done some internal polling too, according to sources, but none of it has been released.
The Albequerque Journal normally does polling of NM-1 somewhere along the line, I'd be on the lookout for it.
Marty Chavez is a strange man. I find it hard to see him as a "centrist" when he sounded like a left-wing kook when he ran for Governor against Gary Johnson in '98. My liberal relatives who live in Albuquerque described Chavez as almost right-wing, which gave me a chuckle.
How are you seeing the NM GOP's ability to win any of the other downballot statewide offices ? I think it's appalling that they've failed to make a strong bid for these offices. You'd think the Michael Montoya-Robert Vigil scandals would serve as a wake-up call.
I tend to agree with your opinion on the down-ballot races, that the GOP is missing good opportunities, not to mention their usual lousy showing against Bingaman. But with Richardson winning easily up-ballot this year, it might be tougher than it looks anyways to translate down-ballot.
Anyway, my real expertise is mainly with Texas politics. I really only follow NM politics as a side-sport, especially since I know someone who's well-versed in the state and I find it a fascinating state politically.
And of course, since the topic of NM-1 came up in this thread...
The Mayor's race is going to occupy New Orleans attention for the time being. In Orleans Parish, the GOP has always been screwed up. I agree this is a winnable seat but the Pubbies may be asleep at the switch on this one.
I also agree with you about Chet Edwards. How the hell he gets re-elected is beyond me.
Where is Pombo?
That's not a perception, that's a fact.
The biggest disgrace, once shared here in my state of Tennessee with the Gov's race, is that Richardson was handed a free pass. The guy has been nothing but a creepy showboating grandstander with nada in the accomplishments department (unless you call feeling up your Lt Gov an accomplishment), and he doesn't even seem all that well-regarded by the legislative Democrats. Surely there was some respectable Republican willing to stand up and expose this flash-in-the-pan jerk ?!
Well, I mean there hasn't been much of an Orleans Parish GOP to begin with. There aren't any names mentioned as a potential GOP candidate for the seat at this point. As you well put it, the "marquee" race is the Mayor's race. More than likely, it seems the White Democrats are going to attempt to take the city's political apparatus back. I wonder if Peggy Wilson would be better off trying for the House seat, since Mitch Landrieu may be too formidable...
I wouldn't consider Pombo vulnerable. The Democrats running are nobodies. Petey McCloskey's challenge from the Josef Stalin/Vito Marcantonio wing of the GOP is a hoot and a half. He needs to go back to the senile citizen's home before he hurts himself.
If the Dems are nobodies, Pombo is a very lucky man. I still think he is in trouble. Write that down. I put him in the shaky leaning GOP column.
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