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To: AntiGuv
OK. I still think it is lean Wilson. Granted it is early, and some polls and events should clarify things in an hurry, as to which of our crystal balls is less clouded, as of now. I forsee an Noreaster for the Pubbies in New England, generically. The place hates the Iraq war.
84 posted on 02/18/2006 8:53:56 PM PST by Torie
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To: Torie; fieldmarshaldj

Just to be clear though, I still rate NM-01 as a Toss Up, not as a Lean Dem. The reason is because it's still no sure bet that the GOP will be in as bad shape as now, if not worse.

If I were to assume that the GOP would enter the Nov election with today's political landscape, I would rate NM-01 a Lean Dem. These are my ratings for GOP-held seats right now in the Lean Dem, Toss Up, and Lean GOP categories.

Lean Democratic

1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (OH-18) Ney
3 (CO-07) Beauprez*
4 (PA-06) Gerlach
5 (TX-22) DeLay

Toss Up

6 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
7 (NM-01) Wilson
8 (IN-08) Hostettler
9 (IN-09) Sodrel
10 (WI-08) Green*
11 (WA-08) Reichert
12 (CT-04) Shays

Lean Republican

13 (MN-06) Kennedy*
14 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
15 (IL-06) Hyde*
16 (CT-02) Simmons
17 (FL-22) Shaw
18 (OH-15) Pryce
19 (CA-50) Cunningham*
20 (KY-04) Davis
21 (NC-11) Taylor
22 (FL-09) Bilirakis*

If the election were held today, I think the GOP would lose the top 8 seats, with 9 & 10 on the cusp. I think they would hold the rest (Reichert on down).


86 posted on 02/18/2006 8:59:36 PM PST by AntiGuv
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