Elusiveness of Powerball is revealed in the math [Mathematician tears up Powerball ticket]

startribune.com ^ | February 15, 2006 | Mike Meyers

[grundle]

"Obviously, people will focus on people who win," said John Allen Paulos, a Temple University mathematician. "All the same dumb sticks who did the same thing [and lost] are invisible."

Author of a bestselling book, "Innumeracy," Paulos says lotteries have always owed their appeal to people's loose grip of math.

Paulos recalled a line from Voltaire: "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity."

Paulos once tore up a Powerball ticket on the eve of a drawing in front of an audience. "They all gasped as if I just slashed the Mona Lisa," he said.

To a mathematician, the lottery is a game where those who don't play have essentially the same odds of winning as those who do -- none.

[1Old Pro]

What are the odds of being dead by age 60 and unable to enjoy that windfall?

Not good given life expectancy is 79ish

[WideGlide]

I only play when the jackpots get ~$50M

Yeah what a waste of time, piddly-assed $20-$30 Million jackpots. Hah! Who needs it!

[Muzzle_em]

Wonder if that family is getting along.

[Joe Miner]

(I do love irony though, and it would have been unbelievably funny if the ticket the professor tore up had actually contained the winning numbers =))

The guy had a scotch tape dispenser in his pocket, just in case.

[mikeus_maximus]

While that true, and part of the reason I don't play in addtion to the moral objection, I have been "close" to lottery winners before.

A few years ago, when i was in private law practice, I represented a family who had just won $60M in the FL lottery.

In the last couple weeks, another jackpot winner bought their ticket at a small rural FL store where I used to take my kids to buy candy. The store had sold relatively few tickets, but one was worth, again, about $60M.

[Wolfie]

For most of us, it's relatively harmless entertainment.

Indeed. For a few bucks, you're buying the right to dream. Then there are the folks like the guy on the local news the other night, who buys 'em 200 bucks a clip, in order to "increase my odds of winning".

[zook]

And this is why no one ever need go inside during a lightening storm. The odds of getting hit are so small.

Clearly, anyone buying hundreds of dollars worth of tickets is fooling himself if he believes he's significantly improved his odds of winning. But it seems perfectly logical to me to buy one or two tickets per week.

[DManA]

Take a four function calculator

enter 1 divided by 100,000,000,000.

What answer do you get?

[Kirkwood]

"To a mathematician, the lottery is a game where those who don't play have essentially the same odds of winning as those who do -- none."

Note the qualifier. I hate when otherwise smart people do this only to make themselves look superior to everyone else, but aren't willing to tell the complete truth.

The fact is that you do have a chance. A slim one, but still the chance exists. I can say with certainty that if you don't play, you will not be a winner. I can also say with certainty that there will be winners at some cash level in every Powerball lottery drawing and there will be multiple grand prize winners over the course of a year.

[JamesP81]

The simple math is thus: By saving a mere $3 million and placing it in a realatively mediocre savings account with a major bank, say 4%, you gain in interest $10,000 a month. Even taking out 45% in taxes you end up with $5,500 a month, or $66,000 a year.

I think that is 4% APY, which is Annual Percentage Yield. It would be 10,000 per year. And furthermore, a "mere" 3 million dollars is not that easy to save.

[Sofa King]

"Time and a good name brains are the two most important."

[Frapster]

duh - someone's gotta win... why not me? *drools*

[Bigh4u2]

I think when the jackpot is lower, the odds are better, because most people are waiting for that 'big' payoff.

I'd take a $1 million jackpot anyday.

Hell. I'd take less!

[steelcurtain]

Well put.

[Proud2BeRight]

"Lotteries are a tax on stupidity."
This quote matches my thoughts on the subject perfectly.
Ever sat in a full NFL stadium? Think about the chance of being the one person picked to win something out of that crowd. Well, to win that lottery, if you were in Soldier Field (da Bears) you would have to be that one person out of 2,212 Soldier Fields. No question to me, "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity."

Invest the same amount instead.

[Little Ray]

Lotteries are a tax on stupidity, gullibility, and wishful thinking... and these things SHOULD be taxed!
I wish there were more lotteries and fewer taxes!

[Perdogg]

I am not saying Rush stole it from me, but I posted it earlier that morning.

[Bigh4u2]

"Take a four function calculator

enter 1 divided by 100,000,000,000.

What answer do you get?"



Me!

:)

[pageonetoo]

Wonder if that family is getting along.

I told my wife that we can split the money first, then she can decide to stay or leave. She said I could keep the money. Thankfully she said she would like to stay, too!