Elusiveness of Powerball is revealed in the math [Mathematician tears up Powerball ticket]

startribune.com ^ | February 15, 2006 | Mike Meyers

[grundle]

"Obviously, people will focus on people who win," said John Allen Paulos, a Temple University mathematician. "All the same dumb sticks who did the same thing [and lost] are invisible."

Author of a bestselling book, "Innumeracy," Paulos says lotteries have always owed their appeal to people's loose grip of math.

Paulos recalled a line from Voltaire: "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity."

Paulos once tore up a Powerball ticket on the eve of a drawing in front of an audience. "They all gasped as if I just slashed the Mona Lisa," he said.

To a mathematician, the lottery is a game where those who don't play have essentially the same odds of winning as those who do -- none.

[pageonetoo]

I remember back in 1994 or 5, there was a large jackpot. A bunch of us went together and bought 100 tickets. I made the trip to DC to buy them (lived in VA at the time), and popped down $2 for myself.

I gave up all the tickets when I got back, and another friend logged the numbers. For the next two days, we all dreamed about money.

In the end, I was the only one who won anything. My $2 parlied into $50. I was extremely happy to win anything.

I don't need to win the lottery. Life has already granted me enough to live well. But, I still buy tickets when it gets this big. It isn't just the money, it's the entertainment.

When you plop down $30-40 bucks for a movie and popcorn, $2 sorta pales in comparison. Especially when you consider that the movie lasts about 2 hours +/-, whereas you can dream about jets, fast cars, amd private islands for just 2 bucks, for two days!

I always consider the money going into the trash, when I buy them. But, as the saying goes, "you can't win, without a ticket!"

Record $340 Million Ticket Claimed in Oregon!

The winners of the $340 million record breaking Powerball jackpot claimed their prize at Oregon Lottery headquarters on Tuesday, November 8. The ticket was purchased jointly by Steve and Carolyn West, and Carolyn's parents, Bob and Frances Cheney in the small town of Jacksonville (population 1,955) located in southwest Oregon. When Carolyn West's parents asked her if she wanted to share in buying a Powerball ticket, her husband told her not to waste her money. Fortunately, she didn't listen to him, and it turned out to be a decision worth millions. The winners had the choice of splitting a cash lump sum worth $164,410,058 before taxes, or a 29-year, 30-payment annuity...

[WideGlide]

Yep. If only people would tke a dollar a day and invest it beginning at age 20. By age 60 they'd automatically have a 100% chance of a very large payoff.

Invest it how? Enron? Global Crossing? Google? Too risky? Invested at passbook savings rates your $14,600 over 40 years likely will lose to inflation. But I'm no mathmagician.

[Colonel_Flagg]

So his math is a little off.

By about $148 million for a single-payout if someone wins tonight. I know I have next to no chance of winning but I'll spend a buck for a shot at it. Heck, even Hillary can't make money grow THAT fast. :)

[RedEyeJack]

If you take proper shelter from a storm YOU will not be hit by lightning. If you DON'T buy a lottery ticket YOU will not win.

It is a form of entertainment for some people. It is an obsession for others... For many it is the only "tax" they pay beyond those on sales, cigarettes, booze, and gas.

[HamiltonJay]

Giving someone who doesn't know how to handle money a lot of just means they'll spend that much more.

Most folks who play the lottery are poor.

Most folks are poor because they don't know how to handle what little money they do have.

Giving someone like this a lot of money all at once is just asking for a train wreck... which is almost always what happens.

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

I think there are psychological/economic studies which purport to show that what you gain by buying a lotto ticket is the psychological boost between the time you acquire the ticket and the time that the drawing is held - you believe that you might just win. In essence you're buying the fantasy - much as someone who goes to a strip club or buys a hooker is in some sense buying another type of fantasy.

I also think people have a hard time conceptualizing big numbers. I think if you went to a baseball stadium where, say there are 45,000 fans seated there and they announced that they were going to call out a seat number and give the lucky winner a prize, if you sat there in Yankee stadium (or wherever) and looked at all the folks around you you would intuitively know that your chance of being called is quite small. But if you buy a lotto ticket that has a much smaller chance of hitting the jackpot, you psychologically might feel better about your chances because you can't visualize the fact that your competing against, say, 100 Yankee Stadiums, all lined up end to end.

[Toby06]

I spend a buck or two per drawing and consider it cheap entertainment. I can afford the 2 bucks.

I know I'll never win, but it sure is nice to dream about buying that beach house and spending the rest of my days fishing the world over!

[HamiltonJay]

Just pick a nice mutual fund with a long track record of 10% returns on average... you'll retire quite well.

There is a reason there isn't a traffic jam of luxury vehicles at the kwicky mart buying lottery tickets.

Do broke people things, wind up broke....

[Tijeras_Slim]

My boss the physicist used the math arguement on me when he found out I buy tickets occasionally.

I informed him that 145,000,000 to one against was infinitely better odds than my getting rich working for him.

[1Old Pro]

I'm not a math expert either, but $15,000 is greater than $0 according to my calculations.

[Bigh4u2]

Well 'I' will never win because 'I' don't play.

But even if I did, saying that I will 'never' win, even with 300 million to 1 odds, is interesting considering the entire strategy of gambling is 'chance' anyway.

There is always a 'chance' I could win. Likely? Probably not. But a 'chance' none the less.

"I would feel fairly safe betting against YOU in separate drawings if only 10 were sold."

Only 10 tickets sold?


What are 'odds' that will happen?

None.

[Muzzle_em]

Love the tag line.
Heard it on Rush and laughed out loud

[metalcor]

I only play when the odds against equal or exceed the payoff---when that happens I go by the 7-11 and get a single ticket if I'm thirsty or need gas. Otherwise, I just drive by and throw a dollar bill out the window for the sake of efficiency.

[Think free or die]

For people who spend the rent money, the lottery or any kind of gambling is bad news indeed. For most of us, it's relatively harmless entertainment. I probably spend on the order of $10 annually on lottery tickets when the spirit moves me. For a day or two I can dream a little about that place on the lake or cruising the islands. It's also an interesting way to hear what the kids dream about (owning a laser tag joint). Some folks buy overpriced lattes at Starbucks, others buy Powerball tickets. It's nice to have the freedom to choose.

[proxy_user]

On the other hand, this is a very clever way for the government to get back the money expended on welfare.

[Tijeras_Slim]

My brother in law smugly told me that X% of all Lottery winners go broke in a few years.

My answer: "They all gave money to their brother in laws, I won't make that mistake."

[Muzzle_em]

Curious-
What are the odds of being dead by age 60 and unable to enjoy that windfall?

[Ditto]

Agree. I understand the odds, and I'll put a few bucks on it just for fun. It's a game, not my investment plan.

What is interesting is that on these progressive jackpots games, the prize money can reach the point where simply buying every combination of numbers could guarantee a profit --- unless of course others bought the winning combination as well. Now that would be a gamble! ;~))

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

That was such a sad story.

Money is a useful tool, but there are a few things it can't buy. Time and a good name are the two most important. It also doesn't change behavior, it merely amplifies it. A generous person who runs into a lot of money becomes more generous. A jerk, becomes a bigger jerk. A wasteful person become extravagent in their sqaunderings.

[PETEPARSLEY]

Kind of like Joe Louis or his accountant