Posted on 02/15/2006 7:12:58 AM PST by grundle
"Obviously, people will focus on people who win," said John Allen Paulos, a Temple University mathematician. "All the same dumb sticks who did the same thing [and lost] are invisible."
Author of a bestselling book, "Innumeracy," Paulos says lotteries have always owed their appeal to people's loose grip of math.
Paulos recalled a line from Voltaire: "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity."
Paulos once tore up a Powerball ticket on the eve of a drawing in front of an audience. "They all gasped as if I just slashed the Mona Lisa," he said.
To a mathematician, the lottery is a game where those who don't play have essentially the same odds of winning as those who do -- none.
(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...
I think you have summed it up well.
I voted to create the lottery in Missouri but I have never bought a ticket.
A lottery is a voluntary tax. And I ain't volunteerin'. ;-)
wideminded wrote:
>>> But if the analysis is based on the amount of improvement in one's life that a lottery win would bring and the inconsequential degrading effect of betting very small sums, as well as the "gain" in the slight excitement of following the process, then it may make sense to occasionally buy a ticket with same spare change. <<<
Along this very same line of analysis, I've come to the conclusion that my chances of being worth $300,000,000 are BETTER with the lottery than without. The chances either way are terribly small, as the article well demonstrates with regard to the lottery. But when the pot gets above $200 mil, I'll take a chance on winning all that money that those other folks have contributed.
Dude! Who buys a ticket a day for powerball? That's not even how you play unless you have some weird psychological issues.
Investors also don't put a buck a day into a piggybank to say for an IRA unless they have the mentality of a 6 year old.
I can also assure you that people who play the powerball are also very interested in winning any of the lesser amounts. I don't know of anyone winning $500K turning it down, let alone someone turning down a $3 winning ticket.
what were the numbers?
Apparently you did not understand the underlying message in my words. I don¡¦t care if it¡¦s a buck a day or any other amount. I¡¦ll bet $5-10 bucks each week is common. I use it as illustrative. Make it any amount you want. It is still money wasted.
From personal observations, I notice that often those who regularly purchase lottery tickets are often also inclined to squander away money on a myriad of other stupid things. Then they complain that they just can¡¦t get ahead. Put the few dollars saved from not gambling with those numerous other money wasters and the real investment dollars can add up. I believe the first step in developing personal financial acumen is establishing the resolve and objectives to accumulate money.
The author of the original article has it perfect: "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity."
Not many times have I been referred to as ¡§dude¡¨. ƒº
Match Prize Odds
5+PB Grand Prize 1 in 146,107,962.00
5 $200,000 1 in 3,563,608.83
4+PB $10,000 1 in 584,431.85
4 $100 1 in 14,254.44
3+PB $100 1 in 11,927.18
3 $7 1 in 290.91
2+PB $7 1 in 745.45
1+PB $4 1 in 126.88
PB $3 1 in 68.96
As you can see, even winning one of the smaller prizes is quite difficult.
I always thought interest was like rent.
My son was given a formula like that when he was in high school by one of his favorite teachers. The great thing is my son actually listened to part of it and has a retirement fund started. He's 23. Uh, his mom and dad were not near that smart :)
"At another level the mathematician is right: YOU will not ever win. I can safely predict that based on the odds of each drawing. I think they have in the neighborhood of 300,000,000 numbers sold for each powerball if I heard correctly."
It's not the number of tickets sold that makes it hard to win. It's the probability of guessing all the numbers.
maybe we can ask Sylvia Browne
oh yeah she said all the trapped miners in West Virginia would be found alive,, nevermind
"I'm terrible at math and statistics, but I wonder-
are your chances better if you play the same numbers week after week?"
The simple answer is NO.
Although each drawing is an independent event, meaning what happened in prior drawing does not determine what will happen in the current drawing, a number that last came out 8 months ago has a lesser chance of coming out again in the next, say, ten drawings, than a number that came out during the last 2 drawings.
If there are 55 numbers and one has to guess on 6 numbers, the odds are (assuming the number is not placed back):
6/55 * 5/54 * 4/53 * 3/52 * 2/51 * 1/50 = 1/28,989,675.
I'm assuming that's how the Powerball works. I've never played it.
"55X54X53x52x51x55 = ~22 billion????"
You must divide that 22 billion and the numerator by the total of 55 * 54...* 55, or 720.
If the numbers are put back in the bucket for the drawing of the Powerball, the odds are:
6/55 * 5/54 * 4/53 * 3/52 * 2/51 * 1/55 = 1/31,888,642.
I hope I calculated it correctly.
"How are you going to invest a dollar?"
The whole idea is not that each week you go to the bank and save a dollar. The idea is that you do not spend a dollar per week. Therefore, the dollar remains in your savings account.
all the same, SOMEBODY is going to win, and if you don't play, it won't be you. It's foolish to spend hundreds of dollars, but I unapolagetically buy a single ticket when the jackpot gets big. And with a huge jackpot, the expected rate of return on investment can actually be positive, assuming a single ticket winner.
Except for the fact that sometimes more than one person picks the same winning numbers and the pot is split. The odds of that happening increases when more people play. Using your extreme example, the odds of you splitting a winning ticket when you are the only player is zero. The odds of you splitting a winning ticket increase with every increase in the number of players.
>>The odds of winning have absolutely ZERO to do with how many people are playing. It's all based the odds of picking the right numbers, which would be exactly the same if yours was the only ticket purchased.
>Except for the fact that sometimes more than one person picks the same winning numbers and the pot is split. The odds of that happening increases when more people play. Using your extreme example, the odds of you splitting a winning ticket when you are the only player is zero. The odds of you splitting a winning ticket increase with every increase in the number of players.
BlueMondaySkipper explained it very well. The odds of winning are not related on the number of people playing (ie, the number of tickets sold.) The odds of guessing all the numbers remain the same irrespective of the number of tickets betting. Also whatever numbers came out in prior drawing is irrelevant because lotteries are known as independent events, ie, current outcomes are not based on prior outcomes.
Not true because at the point when the jackpot exceeds the cost of purchasing every possible combination, a syndicate will step forward and purchase every combination thereby guaranteeing a win. It has happened in the past. And the syndicate really did win.
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