Posted on 02/15/2006 7:12:58 AM PST by grundle
"Obviously, people will focus on people who win," said John Allen Paulos, a Temple University mathematician. "All the same dumb sticks who did the same thing [and lost] are invisible."
Author of a bestselling book, "Innumeracy," Paulos says lotteries have always owed their appeal to people's loose grip of math.
Paulos recalled a line from Voltaire: "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity."
Paulos once tore up a Powerball ticket on the eve of a drawing in front of an audience. "They all gasped as if I just slashed the Mona Lisa," he said.
To a mathematician, the lottery is a game where those who don't play have essentially the same odds of winning as those who do -- none.
(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...
Actually the odds of winning without playing aren't that much worse than if you do play. There is a distinct statistical possibility (though highly unlikely) that you could just find a winning ticket. Given that your odds are 146 million to 1 against on buying a winning ticket they aren't going to shrink that much for finding a winning ticket.
No. Think of each winning number being "reset" after the drawing. Each combination has exactly the same chance as every other combination every week.
You would only increase your odds of winning if each winning combination would be declared ineligible to win after that.
That would $500 you won!
Shhhh, not so loud or you'll have the IRS after him for not declaring those winnings ;-)
I'm not real fond of playing the lottery (or gambling period) myself, but all the naysayers and joykillers fail to understand that many very logical, intelligent people (like my wife) love to play. The anti-lottery people fail to get the "hope" aspect of gambling. Somebody eventually wins. For millions of people, that is enough reason to play. And no amount of chance experts will deter them.
Interesting comment. If I don't buy lotery tickets yet I dream, does this make me a freeloader?
They don't understand the concept of measuring net worth and that the trend is as important as the current worth.
Yeah what a waste of time, piddly-assed $20-$30 Million jackpots. Hah! Who needs it!
For $20-$30M, I'll just keep responding to those Nigerian letters and e-mails I receive. They don't offer me more than that. :)
true.
however I think that there are what 55 numbers without replacement and then an exact powerball?
55X54X53x52x51x55 = ~22 billion????
Is that right?
No we don't fail to get the "hope" or entertainment aspect at all. If someone wants to play the lottery for fun that's fine. The problem comes in when people start using the lottery as their plan for the future, or support their lottery habit with mathematically incorrect statements. Do what you want with your money for entertainment purposes, but when it comes to the lottery make sure it's just for entertainment purposes.
You are correct, and good point.
Saying a lottery is a tax (on stupid.. ugh) is akin to saying cars are a tax on the employed, or movies are a tax on the brain dead.
Everything* is taxed.
*well almost.
"Invest the same amount instead."
How are you going to invest a dollar? People aren't going to invest it, they are going to use it to buy a coke or a pack of gum. A dollar won't buy much of anything these days, but it can still buy a chance at winning thousands or millions. Your analogy with football stadiums filled with people is inaccurate. There would be hundreds of winners at lower amounts of cash in each stadium.
You can't stop people from being stupid. Stupid people will always waste their money in some manner. And to try to ban lotteries because some people are unable to control their stupidity is unconstitutional. I personally would advise people from gambling in general and have even tried to stop my wife from throwing away the few dollars a week she puts in the Powerball. Having said that, the axiom "a fool and his money are soon parted" describes not only the lotteries but also many other dumb activities that some people waste their money on.
Precisely. You absolutely do have a chance of winning any honest lottery. And yes, it's microscopically small but it's greater than 0.
For a time the Washington State lottery was constructed such that you had a one in 7 million chance of winning. Every time the jackpot got over 7 million - and that was fairly often - that one-dollar ticket was actually a valid bet. Your chances weren't any better but the reward was more than commensurate with the investment.
They changed it when it became obvious that was a losing proposition for the state. Mind you, they actually could have run it indefinitely at a loss as long as the interest they made on the principal was greater than the loss. But that sort of obviates the lottery as a method of funding.
It's entertainment. If the emotional lift and the amusement you get when you purchase a ticket at astronomical odds is worth the buck, then by all means play. For me it isn't, and I don't.
ping
Not as a whole maybe, but you can teach individuals to avoid specific types of stupidity.
Never said anything about banning lotteries. I just try to make sure that in my little corner of the world the only people who play the lottery do so for fun, not as part of some "plan" and not under delusions of probable success.
I want to know where the heck you found a bank that pays 4% interest
http://www.chase.com/ccp/index.jsp?pg_name=ccpmapp/platinum/svgs_cds_mm/page/premier_platinum_savings
Bet the punch line on his 'lottery' lecture changed too.
Oh come on, you either win or you lose. Everyone has a 50% chance to win.
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