Elusiveness of Powerball is revealed in the math [Mathematician tears up Powerball ticket]

startribune.com ^ | February 15, 2006 | Mike Meyers

[grundle]

"Obviously, people will focus on people who win," said John Allen Paulos, a Temple University mathematician. "All the same dumb sticks who did the same thing [and lost] are invisible."

Author of a bestselling book, "Innumeracy," Paulos says lotteries have always owed their appeal to people's loose grip of math.

Paulos recalled a line from Voltaire: "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity."

Paulos once tore up a Powerball ticket on the eve of a drawing in front of an audience. "They all gasped as if I just slashed the Mona Lisa," he said.

To a mathematician, the lottery is a game where those who don't play have essentially the same odds of winning as those who do -- none.

[Mordacious]

Try one of the many online sweepstakes that various companies offer as part of a promotion. ...I've won two trips to Disney (from Alamo and McDonalds) and a trip to a 4-star Utah resort (from Buick - on the Utah trip, the prize included cash to offset the taxes on the prize). Just in one year.

I enter sweepstakes, too, but all I ever won was a coupon for a free box of Rice-a-Roni :(

[antaresequity]

If I won the lottery...

I would move the funds to an offshore account on say...the island of Nevius...invest the money in stable emerging market debt getting a slightly better return.

I would order up one Debit card for the account and not pay a single dime in taxes...

By the way...you could withdraw 66k a year from 3 million and it would last you 45.45 years to consume...

[Chances Are]

I once won $25 in a scratch lotto. Brought groceries with it.

CA....

[steelcurtain]

Jack Whittaker, who won the big Powerball jackpot (around $115 million after taxes) has had innumerable run-ins with the law, mostly alcohol-related. He's taken to hanging out at strip clubs and getting robbed there. His granddaughter died of a drug overdose after she started hanging with people who only "liked" her for her money. The whole sordid story is told in this Washington Post article.

[Proud2BeRight]

I would love to see the correlation of regular lottery players to people who carry balances on their credit cards.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

I've done $50 and $100 on the scratch offs, but winnings like that were few and far between...now I live in Utah, and spend my pocket money on ordering used history books from Amazon.com...

[Hank Rearden]

Do any other FReepers agree with me that only this is The One, True Powerball?

[grundle]

Are you the same OB1kNOb who posts at Mr Cranky?

[wideminded]

Usually mathematicians who say that playing the lottery is stupid are looking at the "expectation value" of the amount of money one ends up with after playing, which is negative. But if the analysis is based on the amount of improvement in one's life that a lottery win would bring and the inconsequential degrading effect of betting very small sums, as well as the "gain" in the slight excitement of following the process, then it may make sense to occasionally buy a ticket with same spare change.

I was a math major and I have read Paulos's books on innumeracy. I have bought 2 lottery tickets in my life and I do not feel that this harmed me.

[JamesP81]

Don't know quite that much about it, but it wouldn't surprise me if there wasn't some special tax on non-taxable income. Sounds like something the IRS would come up with.

[wideminded]

And this is why no one ever need go inside during a lightening storm. The odds of getting hit are so small.

The odds have a lot to do with where one is standing during the storm. It is stupid to seek shelter from a lightning storm by standing under a large, isolated tree.

[OB1kNOb]

Are you the same OB1kNOb who posts at Mr Cranky?

Nope. You mean there's another me out there somewhere?

[Muzzle_em]

I think a dollar a week for a little daydreaming is not so bad. Then, there are those idiots who spend a whole LOTTO money week after week....

[TLOne]

My lottery fantasy, and I do have $1 "invested" in tonight's drawing, involve claiming the prize.

How to do it with anonymously and avoiding the most taxes. Then investing the settlement to avoid the most taxes.

I'd want my lawyer to have some Helen Thomas lookalike to be the "face" to claim it. That sure would insure less media scrutiny.

A media statement denouncing the evils of gambling and lotteries would be nice too.

That fantasy is worth $1 every now and then but not twice a week. I fall in the camp of playing $1 when it gets to $150M or so.

[grundle]

Yes. He posts at http://www.mrcranky.com

[discostu]

You're changing the meaning of my words. Just because no jackpot has gone forever without being won before doesn't mean it can't happen.

You said that 100% chance that eventually someone would win, statistically that is incorrect. Because every week there is always the possibility of no winner then there is no 100% chance of an eventual winner.

[AFreeBird]

And as to it being a "tax on stupidity", well, Considering the bulk of MANDATORY taxes are stupid..

I'd rather voluntarily pay a tax than have it confiscated at the barrel of a gun as governments tend to do.

I only play when it gets this high, and five bucks a week works out to be hardly a blip on my Silverodo's gas gage. And the mental entertainment of what would you do with $100M (after taxes) is fun.

[ThinkDifferent]

Actually when the jackpots get over $300 million it mathematically makes sense to play. A winning ticket would net you $100 million or so, while the odds are about 87 million to 1. Add up all the other chances to win prizes and it becomes a really good bet.

Not really. The marginal utility of money slopes downward, so winning $100 million isn't twice as good as winning $50 million.