Posted on 02/14/2006 12:58:04 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - "Bush, do you know where I am?"
With these words, Ayman al-Zawahri, al Qaeda's No. 2 after Osama bin Laden, taunted U.S. President George W. Bush last month after a U.S. airstrike in Pakistan failed to kill him.
CIA Director Porter Goss said last year he had an excellent idea of where bin Laden was, but more than four years after the September 11 attacks and despite military operations and high-level arrests, bin Laden and Zawahri are still eluding capture.
U.S. officials say only that they are thought to be somewhere in the rugged tribal areas that run for more than 500 miles along the Pakistan- Afghanistan border.
"We think they're in the border region, but cannot disclose more than that for obvious reasons," a U.S. counterterrorism official said, adding the two men were probably always on the move.
Bin Laden was last heard from on January 19 in an audio tape and Zawahri appeared in a video on January 30. Officials hope both messages may shed some light on their location.
Several officials said Zawahri's use of a relative high quality video while bin Laden only made a mediocre-quality audio tape supported a belief that the two men had unequal access to hi-tech recording devices. Some experts have wondered whether bin Laden was ill and did not want a video to highlight any apparent weakness.
"The fact that bin Laden did an audio tape would suggest he's in a more isolated remote environment and Zawahri's video would suggest that he's in closer contact with al Qaeda's propaganda apparatus," said a U.S. counterterrorism official, who declined to say whether this meant Zawahri was probably near or in an urban environment.
'STUCK IN A CAVE?'
Strategic Forecasting, a private intelligence firm, questioned the theory of bin Laden's isolation, saying his taped references to detailed current events make it unlikely he is "stuck in a cave."
"Unless there are platoons of couriers bringing reports to him ... it would appear that bin Laden is able to access satellite television and possibly the Internet. Wherever he is, there is electricity and some degree of connectivity to the world," the group said in a recent report.
Pakistani intelligence officials say Zawahri, at least, is almost certainly still in the Pashtun tribal lands that straddle the long, porous border between the two countries.
The terrain ranges from arid dust-blown plains marked by dry gullies and covered in low scrub, to jagged mountain ranges, some barren, others heavily forested. There are few proper roads, and militants can be alerted to any ground movement of security forces long before the troops arrive.
While bin Laden and Zawahri have managed to get more than a dozen video and audiotapes to Arab television stations in the Gulf since the 2001 attacks, authorities have been unable to trace them back and locate the world's most wanted men.
Several intelligence officials in the United States, Europe and Pakistan said bin Laden and his deputy were probably hiding in separate locations. All of the officials declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the topic.
"It seems unlikely that they'd hide in the same place all the time, because then the two of them would be hit with one missile or with one raid," a European counterterrorism official said.
He said bin Laden's choice of an audio tape could simply mean he is avoiding the additional risk of making and smuggling videotapes. It could also be part of a deliberate strategy to operate from the shadows where "you hear his voice but don't see his face."
"I don't see the cave (as a hide-out for bin Laden). I rather see some backrooms in a large house in a densely populated suburb or something like that," he said.
Officials note that the most high-profile al Qaeda arrests have been made in Pakistani cities, including September 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in Rawalpindi, September 11 plot coordinator Ramzi Binalshibh in Karachi, operations director Abu Zubaydah in Faisalabad, and senior operative Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani in Gujarat.
(Additional reporting by David Morgan)
A video grab from Al Jazeera shows al Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden (L) and Ayman al-Zawahri in an unknown location, originally aired September 10, 2003. CIA Director Porter Goss said last year he had an excellent idea of where bin Laden was, but more than four years after the September 11 attacks and despite military operations and high-level arrests, bin Laden and Zawahri are still eluding capture. REUTERS/al Jazeera Television
Terrorist Cheerleading from Rooters.
We may not know "where" they are but we do know where they are not.
And that's not in any public place.
Have you seen any of them at a public wedding lately? Or a pizza party?
Given how the idiots act over cartoons and all.
perhaps their insurance man should take them out to dinner.
Hell, Whitey Bulger has been on the loose longer than ben Laden.
Eric Rudolph was on the run for years and was found near his home and the Unibomber was only found because his brother ratted him out.
It's not easy to find a single individual.
Bring me the head of Osama Bin Laden! Nothing less will do!!
If we have a good idea of 'where' the duo are, we will never know how fast they are moving. Conversely if we have a good idea of how fast they are moving we won't know for sure where exactly they are. Sorry, but that's an eternal truth.
And thats in the states. Travel 10,000 miles and it gets even tougher.
Something I've suspected for a long time....he is hiding in plain sight....in a major Pakistani city.
Rooters speculation ping . . .
I agree with some sections..
About twenty seconds slower . . . age is beginning to show . . .
Haha!
Has anybody checked the Matrix?
"The Matrix is all around us."
Golly, give that official a pay raise for that bit of incisive analysis.
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