Playing Poker With ARMAGEDDON

Front Page Magazine ^ | February 09, 2006 | Kenneth R. Timmerman

[IrishMike]

The prospect that the Islamic Republic of Iran could acquire nuclear weapons ought to be too serious for it to succumb to political spin, espicially from within the U. S. intelligence community. But 'leakers' seeking to embarrass the Bush Administration have been furiously spinning the extraordinary information obtained over the past eighteen months from an Iranian 'walk-in' about Iran's nuclear intentions, seeking to downplay its importance and suggesting that the intelligence community is divided over how to interpret it. HERE IS WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE EXTRAORDINARY DOCUMENTS PROVIDED BY THE WALK-IN ON A LAPTOP COMPUTER. THEY INCLUDE...........

[IrishMike]

THEY INCLUDE.......Design information for the modifications to the re-entry vehicle of Iran's Shahab ballistic missile, to allow it to carry a nuclear warhead to Israel........Drawings of a deep undergriund shaft, fitted out with remote-controlled sensors and a distant control booth, which analysts acknowledge has all the hallmarks of a nuclear weapons test shaft........a complete set of drawings, worked up by a front company in Tehran for Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, for a small, clandestine uranium-conversion facility that could replace the large, commercial plant in Isfahan should the U.S. or Israel take it out in a military strike.

[Miss Marple]

Look at this!

[beyond the sea]

..........not too hard to believe at all

[sono]

"Lies ... All Lies"
Scott Ritter

[Dog]

Another leak that will set us back... damn the media to hell.

But the most damaging thing about the leaks to the Post was this piece of intelligence:

“Experts at the Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico ran the schematics [for the Shahab-3 nuclear-capable warhead] through computer simulations. They determined two things: The drawings were an effort to expand the nose cone of the Shahab-3 to carry a nuclear warhead, and the modification plans, if executed, would not work.”

Now, developing the intelligence and the computer capabiltities to come that conclusion cost the United States hundreds of billions of dollars and fifty years of nuclear weapons expertise to develop. Thanks to a dumb reporter at the Washington Post, we just gave it to the Iranians for thirty-five cents.

Dirty SOB's!!

[Dog]

They determined two things: The drawings were an effort to expand the nose cone of the Shahab-3 to carry a nuclear warhead, and the modification plans, if executed, would not work.”

In others words the POST told them to tweak their plans....let that sink in...

[Coop]

Say, this author wouldn't be the same Kenneth R. Timmerman recently nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize along with John Bolton, would it? :-P

[IrishMike]

I believe one and the same

[mkjessup]

For whatever it may be worth, I'll tell you why I think the Iranians either developed those plans for the deep testing shaft, (or have actually begun construction), it is to lull the West into complacency (just like the chowderheads at Langley who proclaim Iran is a decade away from a nuke), knowing that at some point there may be intelligence leaks within their own nuke weapon programs, and this shaft is the upstart-nuclear equivalent of a Potemkin village, to give the world the mistaken notion that Tehran is nowhere near the point where they could actually explode a nuke, as they are still seen as preparing the facilities needed to test a device (all the while they are further along than anyone dares suspect).

Personally, if they are able to assemble a missile, mount a warhead (untested or not) on that missile, they will fire it at Israel at their earliest opportunity. If it explodes, they go into a jihadist-mass-orgasm, if it happens to be a dud, they claim it was just a satellite launch that went awry and express "regrets" for any misunderstanding.

[Tolik]

Very Interesting!

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[CBart95]

OK Mr. Smart guy!
If you think for one moment that we are going to let someone as smart as you fade back into the wood work and not comment ever again,you are dead wrong.

Against a backdrop of imbeciles.lurkers,flammers,teenage zit kings,and assorted miscreants, your stuff sounds mighty authoritative and we want to hear more from you.

That's and order.

[CBart95]

"an".

[Semper Paratus]

if it happens to be a dud, they claim it was just a satellite launch that went awry and express "regrets" for any misunderstanding

And when Isreal retrieves the dud warhead they'll return it with 100 others that won't be duds.

[Mrs. Darla Ruth Schwerin]

Is anybody EVER going to charge these traitorous newspapers with treason? Or are we just going to sit back until several more jump on the bandwagon?

[johnny7]

By the middle of March, Israel will 'proactively' find out if they have one... or not. The world will also find out who supports the Islamo-nazi's in Tehran... and who will side to destroy them.

[redgolum]

Maybe sooner than the Ides of March, but I think you are right.

I also suspect that the riots over the cartoon are a smokescreen.

[Billthedrill]

I'm considerably more concerned about the testing shaft than the missile - the difficulty with the latter will be solved by testing dummy payloads and will be perfectly legal. It will also be difficult to hide.

The object of the operation is to demonstrate that Iran can possess such weapons whether they can in fact produce them or not. In theory - it's not a good theory, but it's operative here - this makes the current government unassailable both internally and internationally. Tehran goes over to the students? Nuke it. Tel Aviv can wait.

It's going to have to anyway. Their current missile technology is fledgling and purely ballistic. In its current state the Iranians couldn't shoot anything at Tel Aviv without a distinct possibility that it would hit Damascus, Beirut, or blow up on the pad. Not that they'd care much if it did, but it would mean the waste of a weapon.

I might also point out that the Shahab-3 is not a purely Iranian product, but a joint effort between them and the North Koreans. It appears that they have taken the first stage of the Nodong missile and placed a solid-fueled second stage of their own design on top - it would be the latter that would contain the delivery vehicle. They haven't a very good success rate by all reports (50%) and so what we must watch is their testing program.

The good news is that they're unlikely to send a suicide truck-driver across Iraq and hence the missile is probably their best bet. The bad news is the damage they could cause with mere possession of a weapon even without a long-range delivery vehicle.

[.cnI redruM]

The Dems are not signed for the Iraq War. That allows them to be as stupid and irrational on the subject as they have to in order to pander and not get hosed. This is classic moral free riding.

[calljack]

I posted that very thought yesterday, I couldn't agree more.
Magician sleight of hand. Look over here while I work over there. Hopefully it is not Iran that is the distraction from something we have NO idea of. Now that would be a good one.

[IrishMike]

Interesting Bill, thanks for the additional intel.