Replies

THEY INCLUDE.......Design information for the modifications to the re-entry vehicle of Iran's Shahab ballistic missile, to allow it to carry a nuclear warhead to Israel........Drawings of a deep undergriund shaft, fitted out with remote-controlled sensors and a distant control booth, which analysts acknowledge has all the hallmarks of a nuclear weapons test shaft........a complete set of drawings, worked up by a front company in Tehran for Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, for a small, clandestine uranium-conversion facility that could replace the large, commercial plant in Isfahan should the U.S. or Israel take it out in a military strike.

For whatever it may be worth, I'll tell you why I think the Iranians either developed those plans for the deep testing shaft, (or have actually begun construction), it is to lull the West into complacency (just like the chowderheads at Langley who proclaim Iran is a decade away from a nuke), knowing that at some point there may be intelligence leaks within their own nuke weapon programs, and this shaft is the upstart-nuclear equivalent of a Potemkin village, to give the world the mistaken notion that Tehran is nowhere near the point where they could actually explode a nuke, as they are still seen as preparing the facilities needed to test a device (all the while they are further along than anyone dares suspect).

Personally, if they are able to assemble a missile, mount a warhead (untested or not) on that missile, they will fire it at Israel at their earliest opportunity. If it explodes, they go into a jihadist-mass-orgasm, if it happens to be a dud, they claim it was just a satellite launch that went awry and express "regrets" for any misunderstanding.

Very Interesting!

This ping list is not author-specific for articles I'd like to share. Some for the perfect moral clarity, some for provocative thoughts; or simply interesting articles I'd hate to miss myself. (I don't have to agree with the author all 100% to feel the need to share an article.) I will try not to abuse the ping list and not to annoy you too much, but on some days there is more of the good stuff that is worthy of attention. You can see the list of articles I pinged to lately on my page.
You are welcome in or out, just freepmail me (and note which PING list you are talking about). Besides this one, I keep 2 separate PING lists for my favorite authors Victor Davis Hanson and Orson Scott Card.

I'm considerably more concerned about the testing shaft than the missile - the difficulty with the latter will be solved by testing dummy payloads and will be perfectly legal. It will also be difficult to hide.

The object of the operation is to demonstrate that Iran can possess such weapons whether they can in fact produce them or not. In theory - it's not a good theory, but it's operative here - this makes the current government unassailable both internally and internationally. Tehran goes over to the students? Nuke it. Tel Aviv can wait.

It's going to have to anyway. Their current missile technology is fledgling and purely ballistic. In its current state the Iranians couldn't shoot anything at Tel Aviv without a distinct possibility that it would hit Damascus, Beirut, or blow up on the pad. Not that they'd care much if it did, but it would mean the waste of a weapon.

I might also point out that the Shahab-3 is not a purely Iranian product, but a joint effort between them and the North Koreans. It appears that they have taken the first stage of the Nodong missile and placed a solid-fueled second stage of their own design on top - it would be the latter that would contain the delivery vehicle. They haven't a very good success rate by all reports (50%) and so what we must watch is their testing program.

The good news is that they're unlikely to send a suicide truck-driver across Iraq and hence the missile is probably their best bet. The bad news is the damage they could cause with mere possession of a weapon even without a long-range delivery vehicle.

I heard the author of "Tehran Rising" speak yesterday. He said that most intelligence agencies think Iran is 5-15 years away from nukes. Israeli intelligence however believes they are 1-2 years away. Further, he said that diplomacy with Iran's current president is a waste of time because he is a fanatical believer that believes Iran will rise to prominence after a major war. The guy believes in the second coming of the Mahdi within the next couple of years. He has also said that he would share nuclear technology with any Islamic country. Israel will not let this happen... period. Their timeline is 1-2 years... so get ready for a show.